Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
04AMMAN10191
2004-12-27 16:59:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Amman
Cable title:  

KING ABDULLAH'S MEETING WITH CODEL KOLBE

Tags:  PREL PGOV ECON EAID PTER KPAL IZ JO 
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271659Z Dec 04
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 010191 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/27/2014
TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON EAID PTER KPAL IZ JO
SUBJECT: KING ABDULLAH'S MEETING WITH CODEL KOLBE


Classified By: CDA David Hale for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

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SUMMARY
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 010191

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/27/2014
TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON EAID PTER KPAL IZ JO
SUBJECT: KING ABDULLAH'S MEETING WITH CODEL KOLBE


Classified By: CDA David Hale for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

--------------
SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) The upcoming elections in Iraq, the peace process,
and Jordan's economic situation dominated CODEL Kolbe's
meeting with King Abdullah in Amman on December 23. King
Abdullah said Jordan is working to encourage Sunni
participation in the January 30 Iraqi election, but voiced
concern that Iran's perceived influence in Iraq could
negatively influence the election's outcome. The King
expressed his optimism that Arafat's passing presents a real
opportunity to move the peace process forward, but that Abu
Mazen would need support to consolidate power. King Abdullah
emphasized that growing the economy and creating jobs is
becoming even more critical as Jordan combats rising
religious extremism, terrorism, and regional instability.
Chairman Kolbe told the King that Jordan enjoys strong U.S.
support, and suggested Congress would favorably consider
recent Jordanian assistance requests.


2. (U) Chairman Kolbe was accompanied in the meeting by
Representatives Don Payne (D-NJ),Charles Taylor (R-NC),
Loretta Sanchez (D-CA),Susan Davis (D-CA),House Rules
Committee staffer Brad Smith, and Charge David Hale. On the
Jordanian side, Royal Court Minister Samir Rifai, Planning
Minister Bassam Awadallah, and spokesperson Sima Bahuth were
in attendance. End Summary.

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JORDAN ENCOURAGING SUNNI PARTICIPATION IN IRAQI VOTE
-------------- --------------


3. (C) During a meeting with CODEL Kolbe on December 23,
King Abdullah said Jordan is "on board" with the January 30
Iraq election and is doing what it could to encourage Sunni
participation. The King said he had just seen Iraqi Prime
Minister Allawi in Amman earlier in the week. The King said
that because the new government will be mandated with the
important task of writing a constitution, it is essential
that the election process result in a government that is

inclusive and representative of Iraq's actual demographic
makeup. The King highlighted Jordan's concern that Iran's
influence among Iraqi Shia would negatively affect the
election's outcome. He said that the Iranians have told him
that they have strategic interests in Iraq, and "it is clear
they're not sitting on the sidelines." King Abdullah noted
that the GOJ's "conservative" estimate of one million
Iranians in southern Iraq is shared by Allawi. He stated
that the problem is that the religious elements, such as
Sistani and Hakim, are influenced by Iran. If Sistani speaks
Arabic, "it is with a Persian accent," he added.


4. (C) The King emphasized to Chairman Kolbe that his fear
is not of Shia per se as a religious matter, but he is
concerned about the possibility of a pro-Iranian alliance
stretching from southern Lebanon to Iran. Alluding to
Bahrain's large Shia population, the King noted that Bahrain
would become vulnerable in this scenario. The King stated
that some in Washington understand this threat, but others do
not. The British until now have dismissed this concern, but
PM Blair is beginning to understand it. Acknowledging the
picture he paints could be a "worst case scenario," he
insisted "it is a major problem if it comes true."


5. (C) The King continued: "As a Hashemite and descendent
of the Prophet, I have no problem with the Shia. If
anything, they venerate the Prophet's successors, unlike the
Sunni. So I don't have a problem with Shia on my doorstep,
unless it is a theocracy influenced by Iran." He claimed
that the best way to counter Iran's influence is to stabilize
the Iraq situation. He added that Iraq has become the
philosophical battlefield: "Iran also knows they can keep
you on your toes via Iraq." In response to Chairman Kolbe's
comment that many Shia in Iraq do not prefer a theocracy, the
King responded: "Yes, but the Iranians are intimidating
them." Asked by Chairman Kolbe how to encourage Sunni
participation, Abdullah said the GOJ is working with the
western tribes of Iraq, where Jordan has the most influence,
and has also helped Allawi arrange a series of meetings with
Sunni oppositionists. Sistani currently has the upper hand,
but an alliance between Allawi and Sunnis in western Iraq
might serve as a counterbalance, according to the King.


6. (C) The King pointed to January 2005 as a watershed time
period, as the two elections -- Iraqi and Palestinian --
could take the region in one of two directions. "If we go
the wrong way, I can't predict what will happen," he said.
Mistakes in Iraq were made, according to the King, especially
the disbanding of the army and the de-Baathification policy.
He noted that 90 percent of men in Mosul are unemployed. He
acknowledged efforts to reverse this are underway, but they
are slow.
--------------
OPTIMISTIC ON PEACE PROCESS
--------------

7. (C) In response to Chairman Kolbe's comment that
Arafat's passing presents an opening for peace, the King said
he is optimistic. The King commented that Abu Mazen is a
strong candidate, but not popular on the street level. "We
need to strengthen him and encourage him and Abu Alaa to work
together," he said. "Abu Mazen's heart is in the right place,
but the task at hand is to strengthen Palestinian political
institutions" so the PA can emerge an effective partner of
Israel.

-------------- --
U.S. ASSISTANCE IMPORTANT TO COUNTER CHALLENGES
-------------- --


8. (C) In response to a question from Congressman Payne
about the GOJ's economic development and plans to combat
unemployment, the King said Jordan's population growth rate
decreased from 2.8 percent to 2.4 percent in the last year.
It was better than expected, but not good enough. Thanks in
part to the U.S.-Jordan Free Trade Agreement and Qualified
Industrial Zones, unemployment in Jordan fell from 16 to 12.5
percent. He said that Jordan's socio-economic platform has
bounced back since the Iraq war, and investment is coming in.
He cautioned that much hard work remains, and administrative
reform is a major priority.


9. (C) Asked by Rep. Sanchez about the impact of the Iraq
war on Jordan's economy, the King noted that Jordan serves as
the gateway to Baghdad, but that the instability in Iraq has
discouraged Western investment in Jordan and the region.
However, he claimed that the major investments in Jordan
since the end of the war are coming from the Gulf because of
Jordan's relative stability. He mentioned that in the
aftermath of 9/11, many investors from the Gulf are looking
for investment opportunities in the region instead of in the
United States. According to the King, Iraqis and Syrians, in
addition to Saudis, are buying property in Jordan.


10. (C) Chairman Kolbe thanked King Abdullah for Jordan's
support, acknowledging Jordan's own suffering at the hands of
terrorists over the years. He said U.S. appreciation is
reflected in tangible ways, which he expected would continue.
In response to Chairman Kolbe's inquiry about the King's
discussion with the president on Jordan's assistance
requests, the King replied: "In ideal circumstances, I have
no right to ask for more. The U.S. has been generous."
However, given regional instability, he expected a number of
"traumatic" years ahead. "If Jordan is to act as a strategic
partner, and if you are going to ask me to take risks, then I
need some help to be insulated -- socially, economically,
militarily." He said Jordan is willing to take the necessary
risks to serve as the hinge of stability in the region, and
explained his decision to issue the November "Amman Message"
on Islam, to counteract religious extremism and terrorism.
Chairman Kolbe told the King that given his strong support in
Congress and among the American people, he expected his
requests would get a friendly reception.


11. (U) CODEL Kolbe did not have the opportunity clear this
cable.


12. (U) Baghdad minimize considered.

Please visit Embassy Amman's classified web site at
http://www.state.sgov/p/nea/amman/ or access the site through
the Department of State's SIPRNET home page.
HALE