PRESIDENT KUFUOR AND NPP LEADING IN GHANA'S

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ACCRA 002390

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: GH PGOV
SUBJECT: PRESIDENT KUFUOR AND NPP LEADING IN GHANA'S
ELECTION

REF: A. A) ACCRA 7444 B) ACCRA 2366


B. C) ACCRA 2367


1. (SBU) Summary: As of 4:30 pm December 8, with slightly
over half the constituency results reported, President Kufuor
of the New Patriotic Party is in the lead in Ghana's December
7 election. The CPP presidential candidate has conceded
defeat. So far, the NPP has also done well in the
parliamentary election. The Electoral Commission has not yet
announced final results and may not complete its tally until
December 9. Some of the alleged incidents of violence we
reported ref A turned out to be false rumors. The EC
Chairman estimates voter turnout may be over 80 percent. End
summary.

The Results So Far
--------------


2. (U) Ghana's next president needs 50 percent of the
popular vote, plus one vote, to win. As of 4:30 pm local
time, JoyFM radio station offered the following results,
based on counting at 141 of a total of 230 constituencies.
(Note: The Electoral Commission is certifying constituencies
very slowly. EC Chairman Afari-Gyan told PolChief on
December 8 that media reports of election results are very
accurate because they get results from the collation centers.
The EC will not likely have final results until December 9.
End note.)
Presidential
--------------

Candidate Percentage Vote

John Kufuor (NPP) 55.1
John Evans Atta Mills (NDC) 42.52
Edward Mahama (PNC) 1.58
George Aggudey (CPP) 0.77

Parliamentary
--------------

(141 of total 230 seats contested)

Party Number of Seats Won As of 4:30 pm

NPP 87
NDC 50
PNC 3
CPP 1
Others

Incidents of Violence
--------------


3. (U) EC Chairman Kwadwo Afari-Gyan told PolChief there
was not as much violence in this election as he feared.
There were isolated cases of minor violence on December 7.
Near Tamale in Northern Region, motorcyclists began shooting
near a polling station. Locals burned their motorcycles and
detained them in the house of a chief until police arrived
and arrested two of them. There were minor scuffles in
isolated polling stations, including in a hotly contested
seat in Ashanti region. Electoral officials were pelted with
stones in one Brong Ahafo collation center and were rescued
by police.


4. (SBU) We have only been able to confirm with some
certainty two incidents of significant violence in the
December 7 election. Our observers in Tamale confirmed with
local police that an NPP and an NDC activist were killed when
an NPP party worker shot an NDC worker at a polling station
and then was beaten to death by another NPP supporter. As
reported reftel, in Bawku (Upper East region) gunshots
disrupted voting when a member of parliament initially could
not find her name on the voting register. According to GTV
(confirmed by the EC Chairman),one soldier was injured. The
night before the election, there was an election-related
shooting in Volta region.


5. (SBU) There were many unsubstantiated rumors of
violence. The police commander in Dzodze, Volta Region, told
one of our observers that the radio story reporting that the
Regional Minister's bodyguard had killed two people was a
false rumor. He also discounted information which we heard
from the UNDP that an NDC activist had shot and killed
someone in Volta region. He noted that one person with a
bandage said he had been shot by the NPP but was only hit by
a sharp object.


6. (SBU) Security forces intervened on occasion to prevent
possible violence. In Tamale, one observer witnessed police
round up six men who allegedly were plotting to steal ballot
boxes, armed with a sword and hand tools One observer in
Volta region confirmed that police in the area intervened to
stop some armed NDC supporters who wanted to disrupt voting.
According to the local police commander, security forces also
averted some possible election-related violence at the
Ghana/Togo border.

Generally Free and Fair Process and High Turnout
-------------- ---


7. (SBU) We continued to hear reports of some minor
irregularities, like ballot boxes which disappeared after
counting and lapses in voting materials. Other foreign
observers (although not our observers) reported numerous
irregularities at the collation centers, where ballot boxes
were taken after counting, including missing ballot box seals
and recounting without the presence of party agents.


8. (SBU) While there are no voter turnout statistics yet,
the EC Chairman estimated turnout at over 80 percent
nationwide. Media and other local commentators widely
praised the election as generally free and fair and
indicative of deepening maturity in Ghana's democracy. One
NDC supporter remarked to PolChief after the election that
"Ghana is the winner. We have matured." The EC Chairman
told PolChief his "prayers had been heard" in running a
smooth election, especially given the massive task of
deploying 100,000 EC volunteers in 21,000 polling stations.


Comment
--------------


9. (SBU) At this point, it appears that Kufuor will win,
with strong showings in swing areas of Central and Western
regions, as well as Ashanti and Eastern regions. Compared to
the first round of voting in 2000 (which featured seven
candidates instead of four),Kufuor is so far polling better
(he won 48.17 percent of the vote in 2000) and Mills is doing
worse (he polled 44.5 percent last time). However, many
constituencies have not yet reported results, including about
half of the constituencies in the NDC strongholds of Volta
and Northern regions. Although not without some problems,
this election was truly impressive. Ghanaians were
determined to have a good election, as evidenced in the very
high turnout and the generally positive, peaceful atmosphere
on election day. Despite concerns prior to the election, the
voter register appeared reasonably complete. Afari-Gyan has
no doubt that the losing presidential candidate will concede
defeat peacefully, although this remains to be seen. A
number of parliamentary candidates, as well as CPP leader
George Aggudey, have already conceded defeat. We cannot
discount further incidents of violence as the results
continue to come out.


YATES