GHANA'S 2004 ELECTION: THE VOLATILE NORTHERN REGION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 ACCRA 002307

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/20/2014
TAGS: GH PGOV PHUM
SUBJECT: GHANA'S 2004 ELECTION: THE VOLATILE NORTHERN REGION


Classified By: PolChief Scott Ticknor for reasons 1.5 d and e.


1. (C) Summary: The Northern Region of Ghana has a long
history of conflict revolving primarily around ethnic,
chieftaincy, and land disputes. In this pre-election period,
intense party rivalries, tensions between claimants to the
Dagomba tribal throne, and an apparent abundance of arms
further poison the atmosphere, especially in Tamale and Yendi
District. Incidents of violence can flare up at any time
over the most trivial of issues. Nonetheless, there are some
positive signs, and officials and civil society activists
have begun peace-building efforts. The Electoral Commission
appears to be effective and well-regarded. Regional
authorities are bolstering security for the election and
there has been no election-related violence in the north in
the past month. If security is adequately tight and the
parties act responsibly, the Northern Region has a good
chance of having peaceful elections. The National Democratic
Convention (NDC) is expected to do well in the northern
region, especially in Tamale, in part because many perceive
the rival NPP as ineffective in investigating, and possibly
complicit in, the 2002 murder of the Ya Na (Andani chief) and
40 supporters. In the coming weeks before December 7, we
will closely monitor the Northern Region, especially the
Tamale Municipal Assembly and Yendi District. End summary.


2. (U) In a November 8-10 visit to Tamale and Yendi in
Ghana's Northern region, PolChief and Pol FSN met with
officials, civil society members, and party representatives
to assess the atmosphere in Ghana's most volatile region
prior to the December 7 presidential and parliamentary
elections.

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A Fragile Peace
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3. (C) Northern region has been peaceful since October,
2004 and was quiet during PolChief's visit. A two-year state
of emergency in the region was lifted in August, 2004.
However, all of our interlocutors described the current
situation in Tamale Municipal Assembly and Yendi District as
highly volatile, capable of sparking into violence at any
time with little provocation. (Note: The rest of the region
is not particularly volatile. End note.) Northern Regional
Police Commander Ephraim Brakatua opined that the "fragile
peace" in Tamale and Yendi could break down any moment,
highlighting chieftaincy and party tensions. He largely
attributed the prevailing peace to a government decision to
ban public political rallies, following the October death of
a 14-year-old boy in a shooting in Tamale (see below). The
District Chief Executive of Yendi and the Director of the
Northern region Electoral Commission are concerned about
clashes around (especially on) election day, but were
confident that security measures would be adequate to prevent
problems.

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The Roots of Tension
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4. (C) Our contacts highlighted the following main factors
contributing to the current state of pre-election tension in
Tamale and Yendi:

A Long History of Conflict: The Northern region has a
centuries-old, complex history of ethnic conflict, mixing
historical grievances with poverty, and disputes over
chieftaincy and land. In the 18th and 19th centuries, the
Dagomba and other tribes with chiefs enslaved and extorted
the more numerous Konkomba and other chiefless tribes in the
north. British colonial rulers favored and used the Dagombas
to undermine the chiefless tribes. After Independence,
Ghanaian leaders continued to support chiefly groups in their
land and other claims over leaderless groups, further
exacerbating ethnic friction in the north. Since 1980 there
have been 17 ethnic-based conflicts in the Northern region,
including the 1994 "Guinea Fowl War" between the chiefly
Dagombas/Nanumbas/Gonjas tribes and the Konkombas, which left
an estimated 20,000 dead.

The Murder of the Ya Na: The tensions have taken a new
dimension in recent years, with intra-Dagomba conflict
between Abudu and Andani "gates" (descendant lines),
following the 2002 murder of the Andani gate supreme chief,
the Ya Na, and 40 others, in Yendi. The brutality of this
killing (the Ya Na was dismembered),failure to arrest anyone
in this case and broad suspicions (although no reported
evidence) of government complicity make this unresolved case
immensely polarizing in the Northern region. The regional
Chairman of the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP) admitted
that this one issue made the NPP campaign in Northern region
difficult.

Party Rivalries: All parties seek to manipulate ethnic
tensions for political gain. It was clear in meetings with
NPP, National Democratic Congress (NDC),and Convention
People's Party (CPP) leaders in Tamale and Yendi that they
intensely dislike and distrust each other. Abudus side with
the NPP (Ghana's Vice President, with the NPP, is Abudu);
Andanis clearly side with the NDC (NDC vice presidential
candidate Mumuni is Andani). The parties clashed in Tamale
in April. In Yendi on October 2, verbal taunting between NPP
and NDC supporters led to the destruction of several stores.

Distrust of Government Authority: The NDC is convinced the
police are biased toward the NPP and are being directed from
Accra to look the other way on cases involving NPP
supporters. The NDC is outraged by the Minister of
Interior's recent statement that, if conditions are too tense
for elections in the northern region, "Ghana can move on
without Dagbon." The NPP Chairman told us bluntly "the
security forces are not doing a good job", claiming they
detain many innocent people and fail to stop incidents of
violence. Perceptions of impunity in the Ya Na killing
(including alleged complicity by the Yendi District Chief
Executive),and the government's imposed ban on party rallies
have also undermined faith in government authorities and
exacerbated insecurity in the region. Both the NDC and NPP
see Tamale as tense and unsafe, and agree that the rule of
law had broken down in parts of the city. The Police
Commander of Yendi confided that, because he had made enemies
in Accra, he felt he was sent to Yendi to get shot.

Abundant Arms: Most of our contacts agreed the Northern
region is awash in guns. Many are home-made guns and small
arms, although there are also reportedly some automatic
weapons. When asked about this, police in the region said
they have heard about large arms staches but have so far been
unable to find many weapons. (Police Commander said he had
uncovered only 18 illegal weapons since September). The
availability of arms has contributed to recent tensions. On
September 16, a business dispute at the Tamale abattoir led
to a gun fight between butchers, with three injuries. On
October 9, a 14-year old boy, who was wearing an NDC campaign
cap (and returning from an NDC rally),was killed by a bullet
reportedly fired by a guard at the house of an NPP activist.
(According to our sources, the NPP activist was a builder
whose house had been torched and vandalized in the past. All
of our contacts believed the boy was hit by a stray bullet
from guards seeking to protect the building, probably without
a political motive). The police found weapons in the house,
including an AK-47. Both the NDC and NPP admitted to us that
they had groups of armed youths standing by to "defend" their
party interests.

Lifting the Ban on Rallies, Phone-Ins: On November 12, the
Northern Region Security Council lifted a ban on the
transmission by Tamale radio stations of political
discussions and phone-in programs. The ban was imposed as a
security precaution following the October killing of the
14-year-old. On November 17, the Council also lifted its ban
on outdoor political activities, imposed for the same reason.
According to press accounts, the parties pledged to keep the
peace, while the Council prohibited firearms at political
rallies and limited rallies to no later than 5 pm. It is not
clear whether the Council's decision to lift the bans will
improve the security environment. While many in civil
society opposed the bans because they were undemocratic and
told us they were urging them to be lifted, officials and
party activists were very cautious about a possible lifting
fo the ban on public rallies. The Police Commander said the
ban on rallies had helped keep the peace and was unsure
whether lifting the ban would lead to new flare-ups. Several
contacts thought there was no need to lift the ban because
rallies were ineffective in northern region, given the
polarized tribal nature of voting. NDC contacts believe the
NPP wants to lift the ban to enable Vice President Mahama to
hold public rallies in northern region (NDC presidential
candidate John Atta Mills was unable to do so in a recent
visit to the area because of the ban). Both the NDC and NPP
insisted that the ban was imposed on them by the Council but
that, at this point, they would oppose lifting the ban for
security reasons.

Some Positive Developments
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5. (C) Against this backdrop of tension are some more
positive signs.

Peace-building Efforts: The police, government and civil
society are working to encourage peace among the region's
rivaling communities. The Bishop of Yendi and NGO leaders
are talking peace in meetings with Abudu and Andani youth and
women. The District Commissioner and Police Commander of
Yendi meets with youth groups, Muslim leaders, and the
political parties to encourage community harmony. The Police
Commander noted a UNDP-supported peace workshop in which
youths, chiefs, and political and religious leaders pledged
to resolve conflicts peacefully. The government formed a
Northern Region Peace Advisory Council which, with UNDP
support, is working to bring different stakeholders together.
Youth groups in Tamale reportedly want to hold a peace rally
in the coming weeks.

Expectations of Free, Fair Election: All of our contacts,
including the rival parties, were convinced that the upcoming
election will be free and fair in Northern region, and gave
high marks to the region's Electoral Commission (EC). The
regional EC Director told PolChief he had put in place all
possible measures for free and fair elections (although some
may try to cheat, he admitted) and the EC had "done
everything possible" to register voters. He noted that
around 95 percent of voters in the region had registered and
that he hoped the EC would allow use of party poll books as a
backup to the register on election day (all the parties told
us they would support this as a means to ensure maximum
possible enfranchisement).

Strong Security Presence: While recognizing that violence
could spark at any time, most contacts on the trip were
optimistic the election would be peaceful if there is a
robust security presence in Tamale and Yendi. There has been
no election-related violence in the past month, even after
the decision to lift the ban on political rallies. The
police also reassured us that election observers would be
safe in the region. The regional Police Commander has a
force of 648 policemen, augmented by 200 police on rotation
from other regions of the country, and staff from the
Customs, Prison and Fire services. He hopes for 300 more
police reinforcements for the election. The District Chief
Executive of Yendi told us he has one military company on
hand (the military in the region remain in their barracks on
election day unless needed for a security incident) and is
also seeking police reinforcements. Both areas will deploy
roving patrols of armed police.

NDC Likely to Do Well
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6. (C) In the 2000 election, the NDC won 19 of 24
parliamentary seats (the NPP won 3, and the PNC party won 2
constituencies). In a 2001 by-election, the NPP gained an
additional two seats. We expect the NDC to do at least as
well in Northern Region this election. This year, the NDC
will benefit from discontent with the NPP over the Ya Na's
murder, and for the first time, the NDC running mate is from
the north. The NDC is expected to do well in Tamale, while
the NPP should do well in Yendi. The NPP told us it hopes to
win 13-14 out of 26 total seats (there are two new
constituencies in the region),pointing to its development
performance and the advantages of incumbency. Nonetheless,
they concede that because of the Ya Na murder, many CPP and
PNC supporters will vote NDC. The NDC believes it will win
20 seats.

Comment
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7. (C) On the surface, Tamale and Yendi feel like poor,
sleepy towns. They are well-traveled by Embassy officers.
The Ambassador had a successful visit to Tamale in September,
launching a new "American Corner" library/computer center.
PAS recently successfully programmed a basketball team in
Tamale, USAID has been traveling to Tamale for election
training, and the Peace Corps has 18 volunteers in Northern
Region and a sub-office in Tamale -- all of which have been
operating without incident. A number of international NGOs
operate in Tamale, given the greater poverty levels in the
north.


8. (C) If the security presence is strong and the political
parties exercise restraint, the elections will probably go
off in Northern region without violence. There was no
violence in the region during the 2000 election. However,
below the surface, there is significant anxiety in the north
in this pre-election period. The parties talk in
surprisingly dramatic fashion about possible violence. For
example, the regional NPP Chairman mentioned rumors that
Andanis would seek to "slaughter" NPP activists on the eve of
the election. There is a great deal at stake for Abudus and
Andanis in particular, especially given the Abudu/Andani
divide of the NPP and NDC vice presidential candidates.
Observers will be watching for several possible tripwires in
the coming two weeks: will the lifting of the ban on public
rallies lead to violence? Will Ghana's Vice President or
President visit the Northern region, as some expect? Will
Andanis move to bury the Ya Na before the election, which
some told us is possible? These could all further poison the
atmosphere before the election. It does not take much to
trigger violence in Tamale and Yendi and we will watch
developments in the whole Northern Region closely during this
potentially volatile election period.

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