FORMER PRESIDENT RAWLINGS RAISES ELECTION CONCERNS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ACCRA 002207

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/08/2014
TAGS: PGOV PREL GH
SUBJECT: FORMER PRESIDENT RAWLINGS RAISES ELECTION CONCERNS
WITH POLCHIEF


Classified By: DCM Jerry Lanier for reasons 1.5 (b) and (d)

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) On November 6, PolChief met with former President (and
senior National Democratic Party activist) J.J. Rawlings, at
Rawlings' request, in his home. He was joined by his wife
and two senior NDC party officials. Rawlings decried what he
saw as an unlevel playing field in this election, claiming
the Electoral Commission is biased and the voting register is
seriously flawed. If the election is rigged, the military
could become frustrated and try to stage a coup, he opined.
He thought the USG was too pro-NPP. Rawlings hoped foreign
missions would push for a recheck of the register and would
post observers in the EC on election day. PolChief stressed
our interest in free, fair, peaceful, democratic elections,
noting that we had met recently with the NDC and all parties,
and stated that we would be cautious and even-handed in our
approach to the election. End summary.

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NO LEVEL PLAYING FIELD
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2. (C) Rawlings and his associates expressed serious concerns
that there was not a fair playing field in the run-up to the
December 7 presidential and parliamentary elections. Some
proportedly nonpartisan NGOs involved in election monitoring
are biased toward the NPP, they alleged, specifically naming
Pronet and the Center for Democratic Development (CDD). The
NPP is using large sums of money to buy votes, deliberately
distorting NDC rallies on television to make them look
smaller than they are, using public buses for party
propaganda, and other alleged abuses of incumbency.

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THE ELECTION REGISTER FLAWED
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3. (C) Rawlings highlighted problems with the voter register.
The EC was biased toward and controlLed by the NPP, he
alleged, contending that it was tampering with the register.
Specifically, he alleged that the EC had changed the names of
some elderly voters to known NPP supporters, and left gaps in
the serial numbers of the register to facilitate fake voting
on polling day. Some photos on the register were fading
because they were poor quality. Rawlings and his colleagues
were appalled with the EC's admission that 55 percent of
registered voters did not appear to check the register during
the October 12-17 exhibition. (Note: This does not appear to
be unusually high since the purpose of checking the register
was merely to confirm information on those who were already
legally registered). They blamed the EC for mismanaging the
process, requiring voters to make separate trips to register,
take photos, and check the registration list, and allowing
too little time to finalize the register. They suspect the
NPP will try stuffing ballots either on election day or
during vote counting.

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OTHER ATTACKS ON THE NPP
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4. (C) Rawlings and his colleagues scoffed at the NPP's
proported accomplishments. The NPP's "So Far, So Good" list
of achievements was "70 percent lies" or achievements
initiated by the former PNDC (Rawlings) government. The
government of President Kufuor had violated human rights in
its involvement with the murder of the Ya Na in Dagomba
(Northern Region) in 2002, was damaging the country's
economy, and was very corrupt, according to Rawlings. The
NPP had "replaced respect with fear of authority", and unduly
favoring Akans in the government and army (Kufuor is an
Ashanti, the dominant Akan tribe). Worst of all, Rawlings
said, were the NPP's "party police" who "want to create
havoc."

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HINTS OF A MILITARY COUP
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5. (C) Rawlings was confident the NDC would win the upcoming
election despite these problems. However, he devoted
significant time to justifying his own military coups of the
past and suggested that if this election is seen as rigged,
some in the military could possibly try to stage a coup, "and
no one could hold them back". If world opinion had not
shifted strongly against military intervention, Kufuor would
have already been overthrown in a coup, he said.

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USG ACTIONS
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6. (C) Rawlings and his colleagues contended that the USG had
favored the NPP in 2000 because, he said, the U.S. believed a
change of party was important to validate Ghana's democracy.
In 2000, Western donors were too quick to declare the
election free and fair, Rawlings asserted, stating "don't be
intoxicated with the NPP because they are the government in
power." His wife began the discussion by urging that
PolChief be "open-minded about the NDC, unlike some of your
colleagues."


7. (C) PolChief emphasized that the USG's interest is that
the upcoming election be a free, fair, and peaceful
democratic representation of the will of the Ghanaian people,
no matter who wins. He noted that we had met with the NDC
presidential candidate John Atta Mills and some his senior
colleagues, as well as senior party leaders from the NPP and
other parties, the EC, and civil society. We had also
traveled widely during the pre-election period and were
tracking election events closely. PolChief noted that we
take the NDC's concerns seriously and did raise some of these
issues about the voting register with the EC. He noted that
the Embassy was contributing over $1 million to the EC and
election-related work, and that we would contribute
substantially to the pool of foreign Mission observers
deployed in this election. We would proceed in a cautious,
even-handed manner. PolChief highlighted the role party
polling agents needed to play to ensure the election was fair.


8. (C) PolChief asked what at this point could be done to
increase the NDC's confidence in the voter register. "It's
not too late to do something", Rawlings said, noting his hope
that the register would be shared with all the parties soon
(the parties had the list to review two months before the
2000 election). He hoped foreign observers would not just
deploy in the field but would be present in the EC office on
election day. "Our polling agents will be vigilant and know
what to do", he said.

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COMMENT
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9. (C) There is an element of drama and paranoia in Rawlings'
world view: the USG is against the NDC, the NPP is bent on
rigging the election, the EC is biased, the military is
disgruntled. While generally welcoming, he was often
distracted, fussing with picture frames, pills, the stereo,
his cell phone. Several times he cut off PolChief's efforts
to respond to his points. His claims about EC register
manipulation was unsubstantiated and fears of NPP
manipulation probably overstated. His talk of military coups
seemed loose and theoretical, but pointed ("I want you to be
clear about what I'm saying", he asserted).


10. (C) Nonetheless, his deep distrust of the NPP and of
preparations for this election are disturbing. We heard
similar views from NDC party leaders and activists in Kumasi
(Ashanti region) over the past few days. NDC workers claim
the NPP is tearing down their posters, intimidating their
candidates, and spreading large amounts of cash to buy votes.
Some of these claims appear credible, in that it is clear
that each major party is removing the posters of the other,
and one presumes that vote-buying is a feature of practically
all elections in countries such as Ghana. Rawlings'
frustration with the EC and the voting register, shared to
some measure by many in civil society, casts some doubt on
whether the NDC would readily accept an electoral defeat
(although Atta Mills, who does not necessarily get his
marching orders from Rawlings, has told us he would accept
the results). Rawlings' thoughts about military coup
possibilities bear watching, especially in light of the NDC's
fears of a flawed election and eagerness to get back in power
(and Ghana's history of coups),as well as the arrest of
seven people over the weekend for alleged coup plotting
(reftel XXX).


11. (SBU) The USG -- through USAID and PAS support for the
election process, our observer teams, our meetings with all
the parties and ongoing dialogue with the Electoral
Commission, and our cautious approach to public statements
about the election -- has been playing an important role in
strengthening confidence in and acceptability of the election
results. The Rawlings meeting underscores the need to
continue with these efforts. End Comment.
YATES