Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
04ACCRA2182
2004-11-05 08:19:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Accra
Cable title:  

GHANA ELECTION SEASON UPDATE: ONE MONTH TO GO

Tags:  PGOV PREL GH 
pdf how-to read a cable
This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ACCRA 002182 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/03/2014
TAGS: PGOV PREL GH
SUBJECT: GHANA ELECTION SEASON UPDATE: ONE MONTH TO GO


-------
SUMMARY
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ACCRA 002182

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/03/2014
TAGS: PGOV PREL GH
SUBJECT: GHANA ELECTION SEASON UPDATE: ONE MONTH TO GO


--------------
SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) A month before Ghana's December 7 presidential and
parliamentary elections, the campaign is heating up but the
political atmosphere is generally peaceful. The ruling New
Patriotic Party (NPP) appears to have the edge over its three
party rivals. Poor turnout during the public exhibition of
the voter register and errors found among those who did show
up may raise some questions about the legitimacy of the
registration. Nonetheless, the Electoral Commission is
confident it can correct errors on the register. Most local
analysts see little potential for polling day rigging and
believe the conditions are in place for a free and fair
election. The election is likely to be peaceful, although
chieftancy and other disputes could lead to minor
election-related violence. The volatile Northern Region is
quiet at the moment, following an isolated incident of
violence in early October. End summary.

--------------
NPP Likely to Win
--------------


2. (U) Four presidential candidates officially filed their
nominations with the Electoral Commission (EC) between
October 20-22. The candidates and their running mates are:
President John Kufuor and Alhaji Aliu Mahama for the New
Patriotic Party (NPP),John Atta-Mills and Alhaji Mohammed
Mumuni for the National Democratic Congress, Dr. Edward
Mahama and Mr. Dan Ofori-Atta of the People's National
Convention, representing the Grand Coalition (which comprises
three small parties, including the PNC),and Mr. George
Aguddey and Mr. Bright Kwame Ameyaw.


3. (C) Political analysts here increasingly expect a solid
NPP victory in both the presidential and parliamentary races.
While the NDC still has a hold on some traditional
strongholds, it is hampered by the convalescence of its vice
presidential candidate (still recovering from a car accident)
and by financial difficulties. It is not clear that the
prominence of former President J.J. Rawlings in the campaign
is helping the NDC. One journalist contact highlighted
Rawlings' continued charisma and draw, but other analysts see
Rawlings as a liability overall, reminding voters of the
human rights abuses and authoritarian legacy of his years in
power. Senior NDC politician Hannah Tetteh Kpodar told

PolOff on November 3 that "it would be a miracle if NDC
stumbles into victory." She also said that the NDC would
likely lose two seats in Parliament that it currently holds.


4. (C) Academic and NGO political contacts agree that, while
the economic situation of the average Ghanaian has not
improved markedly, most voters seem willing to give the NPP
another four years to deliver. The NPP reportedly has been
more active than the NDC in using its wealth and incumbency
to buy food, bicycles and other items for voters. High cocoa
prices and yields should also benefit the NPP. While the NPP
is expected to do well, a recent study by the Center for
Democracy and Development supported other sources in noting
that the NPP has suffered more than other parties from
intra-party conflict and corruption in the parliamentary
primaries.

--------------
The Electoral Commission Still Stumbling
--------------


5. (SBU) Since the Electoral Commission (EC) began its
nationwide voter registration exercise in March 2004, its
efforts to create a 'clean' voter register have been hampered
by resource and organizational problems. The EC's recent
public exhibition of the register was disappointing.
According to local press reports, turnout to examine names on
the register was low; some centers recorded only 50 to 60
percent of voters coming to verify the accuracy of their
names and registration details. A number of those who
examined their records found errors. According to a
journalist contact, ten percent of those who came to check
the roster in Western region found errors.


6. (U) Representatives from all the political parties have
called on the EC to hold a second, final exhibition of the
register. Representatives of the EC told PolOff on November 3
that it will not do so (and they have stated this publicly),
but will instead mobilize its efforts to answer the
challenges raised in the first exhibition. EC officials told
PolOffs they are confident they will rectify all problems and
consider any legitimate challenges to the register before the
election. They acknowledge they are pressed for time, but
will begin printing ballots next week and tell us they do not
anticipate a delay in preparations for the election.

--------------
Isolated Concerns about Election Violence
--------------


7. (C) Political contacts expect a generally peaceful
election, especially given the repeated pleas for peace by
all political parties. Nonetheless, there is the potential
for local chieftancy disputes, personality clashes,
commercial rivalries and other local issues to result in
localized incidents of violence. The Western Regional Police
Commander recently told PolChief that he is worried about
such election-related violence and the inadequacy of his
small police force to respond.


8. (SBU) The Northern Region remains volatile, with large
quantities of small arms in the area and simmering ethnic
tensions. An unresolved chieftancy dispute that led to the
murder of the Ya-Na in 2002 (a case which is still under
investigation),as well as a two-year state of emergency that
was only lifted in August, lends added tension to the Dagbon
and Tamale areas. On October 3, a 14-year-old boy (an alleged
NDC supporter) was fatally shot during a clash between NPP
and NDC party supporters in the area. There are many rumors
and few facts about this case. After the shooting, police
raided the suspect's home and found in his freezer an AK47
which matches the type of bullet that killed the boy. The
suspect, Baba Nkarbo (a well-known NPP activist),and an
alleged accomplice, Nuhu Nkarbo, are currently in police
custody while investigations continue. Observers agree that
there is the potential for more politically-linked violence
in the Northern Region in the coming month.

--------------
Comment
--------------


9. (C) With one month to go, the NPP is not taking a
presidential victory for granted. Campaign rhetoric is
generally civil and the political atmosphere is peaceful.
The EC's problems with the register are troubling and it will
have to scramble to get ready in the coming month.
International donors to the EC are frustrated with its
institutional weaknesses, delays and cost overruns. Despite
these problems, which do not appear too major, the Ghana
election seems likely to be generally peaceful and fair. End
Comment.
YATES