GHANA GEARING UP FOR ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ACCRA 001985

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/06/2014
TAGS: GH PGOV PHUM PREL
SUBJECT: GHANA GEARING UP FOR ELECTIONS


Classified By: PolChief Scott Ticknor for reasons 1.5 (d and e).


1. (SBU) Summary: With slightly over two months to go
before Ghana's presidential and parliamentary elections, the
two major political parties have launched their campaigns,
published manifestos and announced their vice-presidential
candidates. Other minor parties remain disorganized. The
pre-election mood is relatively calm, despite a few isolated
incidents of violence. The primaries, which are still
ongoing, have knocked out several incumbents, including two
Ministers of State. The Electoral Commission (EC) had some
difficulties with the voter registration and extended its
'mopping up' registration exercise until September 30.
Opposition contacts are frustrated with the alleged advantage
the incumbent President has had in garnering media coverage,
with the EC's problems in the registration process, and with
its inability to respond convincingly to complaints. The
publication of the voter register in mid-October will be an
important milestone in reinforcing (or further undermining)
confidence in Ghana's election process. End summary.

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FOUR IN THE RING
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2. (U) While candidates cannot submit their official
nominations to the Electoral Commission until mid-October, at
this point there are four declared presidential candidates:
President John Kufuour of the New Patriotic Party (NPP),John
Evans Atta Mills of the National Democratic Congress (NDC),
Convention People's Party (CPP) leader George Aggudey, and
Dr. Edward Mahama of the People's National Convention (PNC)
party. On October 1, the PNC joined with two other small
parties, the Great Consolidated Popular Party (GCPP) and the
Every Accountable Ghanain Living Everywhere (EGLE) party to
form a "Grand Coalition" to support PNC presidential
candidate Mahama. On October 2, GCPP leader Dan Lartey
argued he should be the presidential candidate instead of
Mahama -- and the coalition fell apart. Although discussions
between the parties are ongoing, most observers are skeptical
the coalition will come together with any strength.

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RUNNING MATES DECLARED
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3. (U) On September 18, President Kufuor announced that he
would retain as his running mate current Vice President,
Alhaji Aliu Mahama. Mahama has been criticized as ineffective
by some in the NPP, most prominently by Victor Newman, a
founding member of the party. Nonetheless, Mahama was
apparently chosen again because, as a northern Muslim, he
balances the ticket.


4. (U) On September 23, the opposition NDC officially
launched its campaign and selected its own northern Muslim,
Alhaji Mohammed Mumuni, as a running mate for its
presidential candidate, John Atta Mills. Mumuni's selection
is seen by some as a strategic move by the NDC to capitalize
on party line divisions between the Andani and Abudu tribes
in the north. On September 28 Mumuni was in a car accident
(he remains in the hospital) effectively removing him as a
campaign player for the next few weeks. (See bios in paras
13, 14).

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INCUMBENTS FLAGGING: THE PRIMARIES CONTINUE
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5. (U) Party members continue with the selection of
parliamentary candidates through primary elections across the
country's 230 constituencies. While many cabinet members won
their primaries with ease, some incumbent Members of
Parliament lost their candidacies, including two Ministers of
State and several MPs with key positions in the ruling
government. Senior Minister J.H. Mensah, MP for Sunyani East,
faced a record five opponents and won his primary only after
intervention by the President and party headquarters.


6. (U) Constituents from several constituencies have
complained that senior NPP officials imposed candidates on
local constituencies without primary elections. Over the past
month, in a few instances in Greater Accra, NPP mobs
physically assaulted regional party leaders to protest the
imposition of candidates.

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MANIFESTOS LAUNCHED
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7. (U) On July 31, the NDC launched its manifesto for the
2004 election. Entitled "A Better Ghana", the manifesto
predictably directs considerable criticism against the NPP.
The opening message from the party's founder, former
President Jerry Rawlings, states that "President Kufuor and
his NPP promised heaven but have landed Ghanaians in the
burning flames of hell." In his opening remarks, Atta Mills
promised that the NDC would "remove the current atmosphere of
suspicion, mistrust, and marginalization of anyone who is
assumed to be an ally of the present opposition." In its
manifesto, the NDC acknowledges that global institutions such
as the International Monetary Fund and World Bank cannot be
"wished away" entirely, but it clearly urges Ghanaians to be
more independent from the policy prescriptions of these
organizations. On social, foreign, and regional policies, the
NDC's platform does not differ considerably from the NPP's.


8. (U) On September 18, the NPP launched its own manifesto,
entitled "So Far, So Very Good". The macroeconomic
achievements of the NPP administration feature prominently.
In contrast to the NDC, the NPP trumpets its successes with
international donor institutions. The manifesto praises the
Kufuor government's achievement in reaching HIPC completion
point in 2004. It also underscores Ghana's selection as a
Millennium Challenge Account prospect. The manifesto
highlights Ghana's first-ever invitation to a G-8 meeting and
President Kufuor's role in ECOWAS. It quotes British Prime
Minister Tony Blair as saying in May 2004, "President Kufuor
is a role model in the African continent and a blazing trail,
who should be followed and emulated."

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'MOPPING UP' COMPLETED
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9. (U) The Electoral Commission is still completing the
voter registration process. It has finished scanning
registration forms from all ten regions into a centralized
database of voters. The EC initiated a 'mopping up' exercise
September 3-7 to give all voters who registered during the
initial registration an opportunity to obtain photo
identification cards (which are required for voting). Faced
with logistical challenges, the 'mop up' was extended until
September 30. The EC has announced it would publish a
provisional voter's register on October 12-17 for public
scrutiny.

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EXPECTATIONS OF A PEACEFUL ELECTION
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10. (SBU) Observers expect that elections will be generally
peaceful, although there could be scattered incidents of
violence. The past month has been filled with events
promoting peaceful elections, including a prayer meeting
attended by visiting Nigerian President Obasanjo. In a
demonstration of support for the democratic process, the NPP
and NDC invited all political parties to address their
conventions.


11. (U) Nonetheless, the selection of two northern Muslim
vice presidential candidates from opposing clans has the
potential to fan communal friction in the north. In the
northern region of Dagbon, the 2002 murder of the Ya-Na
Yakubu Andani (king) remains a central and highly divisive
issue. The NDC has leveraged this issue to disadvantage the
NPP within the Dagbon traditional area, which encompasses
twelve constituencies. Questions still remain about the
government's role during the violent clashes in 2002 and its
inability to find the murderers of the king and forty other
victims. The Andanis, who support the NDC, continue to accuse
the government of playing a central role in the murders. The
Abudus, who support the NPP, deny the allegations. According
to radio reports, on October 3, NPP youth in Yendi (the
traditional capital of Dagbon) attacked NDC supporters and
set fire to a local chief's palace, resulting in some
injuries. The situation in the Dagbon traditional area is
generally volatile and there could be other incidents of
small-scale violence in the heat of the election.

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SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT FAIRNESS
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12. (C) At an October 4 pre-election lunch for members of
civil society, hosted by Charge, several NGO contacts voiced
concerns about fairness in the election campaigns. Like our
small party contacts, they believe the NPP is using its
incumbency to garner disproportionate media coverage and
access to state resources for electoral benefit (although
they concede some of this is inevitable with an incumbent
candidate). Reverend Fred Deegbe, General Secretary of the
Christian Council of Ghana and a member of the Coalition of
Domestic Election Observers (CODEO),underscored the need for
observing and auditing during the pre-election period, which
he thought is more open to manipulation than the polling on
election day itself. CODEA is planning to field over 5,000
domestic observers, not only for polling day but, for the
first time, also for a period during the pre-election
campaign. The lackluster performance of the Electoral
Commission has some donors and party contacts worried. A
number of contacts have shared concerns that as many as
700,000 people were reportedly unable to register to vote,
mostly in regions more likely to support opposition
candidates. Donors to the Electoral Commission, particularly
local British, Canadians and Danish officials, are concerned
that the EC appears unable to account for its budget and
reportedly will be seeking an additional 5 million USD to run
the election. They complain that the EC is inaccessible and
appears overwhelmed by the massive registration process.

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COMMENT
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13. (C) Just over two months before the December 7
elections, Ghana is relatively calm and the electoral
rhetoric is moderate. President Kufuor has been actively
touring the country, and the NPP has been effective at
projecting his engagement in the media. The NDC has yet to
hit its stride and the smaller parties are weakened by
on-again-off-again alliances and a lack of funding. Some in
the business community voice ambivalence, unhappy with the
performance of the NPP government but turned off by former
NDC President Rawlings, who has been active on the NDC
campaign trail. The concerns about fairness in the run-up to
the election -- while not dissimilar to NPP claims before the
2000 election -- bear watching. We will engage the Electoral
Commission on a range of election issues in the next week.
The completeness and acceptability of the
soon-to-be-published voter registration list will be an
important indicator of whether this election seems to be on
track. End Comment.

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BRIEF BIOS OF THE VICE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES
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14. (U) Alhaji Mohammed Mumuni, 55, is a Muslim Dagomba
(Adani clan) and the Member of Parliament for Kumbunu, an
important constituency of Dagbon in the Northern Region. He
holds a Master's degree in law from the University of Ghana
and worked as a private lawyer in Tamale and as a District
Magistrate. After a falling out with the Convention People's
Party (CPP),Mumuni won his first parliamentary seat in 1996
as an NDC candidate. He was Minister of Employment and
Social Welfare (with Cabinet rank) in the previous NDC
government and is currently the ranking MP for Legal,
Constitutional and Parliamentary Affairs.


15. (C) Alhaji Aliu Mahama, Ghana's current Vice President,
is a Muslim Dagomba from Yendi (Abudu clan) in the Northern
Region. He holds a Bachelors of Science in Building
Technology from Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and
Technology in Kumasi. He worked for the now-defunct State
Construction Corporation and later formed his own civil
engineering and contracting business. He served as a local
Assemblyman for the Tamale Municipal Assembly, was active in
the Dagbon Youth Association, and quietly supported the NPP
before being nominated as the NPP's vice presidential running
mate in 2000. As Vice President, Mahama has earned a
reputation for integrity and congeniality, although his
detractors see him as ineffective and unschooled in politics.
LANIER