CNPP PROMISES MAY 3 DEMONSTRATION

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABUJA 000763

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/28/2014
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM PHUM NI
SUBJECT: CNPP PROMISES MAY 3 DEMONSTRATION

REF: ABUJA 709

CLASSIFIED BY ACTING DCM DEAN WOODEN FOR REASONS 1.5 B AND D.


1. (C) SUMMARY: The opposition Conference of Nigerian
Political Parties (CNPP) is moving ahead with its plans to
stage a protest march on May 3, supported by civil society,
religious, and ethnic organizations, and says the lack of
police clearance will not stop the demonstration. The CNPP
produced a list of demands, including President Obasanjo's
resignation and "free and fair" elections, and some of the
biggest names in Nigerian politics and civil society are
saying they will participate. CNPP Coordinator Balarabe Musa
told PolOff that the goal for this rally is to show that "the
leaders are willing to lead." 2003 presidential candidates
Buhari and Ojukwu may well try to lead, and a big turnout
would be a big headache for the GON. END SUMMARY.


2. (U) CNPP, the Yoruba ethnic organization Afenifere,
northern Nigeria's Arewa Consultative Forum, the southeast's
Igbo National Assembly and other groups announced the
establishment of an umbrella organization to coordinate
planning for the May 3 march in Abuja, and may also organize
a demonstration at the same time in Lagos. Among the list of
supporters are the second-tier leaders of the Nigeria Labour
Congress, who have encouraged NLC rank and file to
participate individually. Nigerians United for Democracy
(NUD),the new organization, said it plans to conduct this
first rally and will follow it with protests "throughout the
country." Conflicting press reports claim various groups
support or do not support the protest.

GOALS AND LEADERS


3. (C) NUD attorney Rotimi Williams told PolOff April 29 that
the group planned to go ahead with the march. Balarabe Musa
(the CNPP coordinator, former Kaduna State governor and PRP
presidential candidate) told PolOff on April 23 that NUD
expectations for this initial rally are modest. "We hope to
show Nigerians that "the leaders are willing to lead." While
some call the rally a "Two Million Man March," Musa said that
he expected "thousands" to participate and would be satisfied
with a turnout of 50 people "if the leaders are there." Musa
said ANPP Presidential Candidate Muhammadu Buhari, APGA
Presidential Candidate Chukwuemeka Ojukwu, APP 1999
Presidential Candidate Olu Falae, NADECO Chieftain Anthony
Enahoro and respected gadfly Gani Fawehinmi had all been
invited to play prominent roles at the rally. He said Buhari
and Ojukwu plan to participate and Falae was expected to
accept. Other sources agree that Buhari and Ojukwu will
attend in person and that the Fawehinmi is working behind the
scenes to help the organizers.


4. (C) Musa told PolOff, "We hope to develop the momentum" to
sweep Obasanjo out of office and initiate open elections "on
the style of recent events in Georgia." This rally was the
first step in efforts to give Nigerians a way to express
their dissatisfaction with the "rigged elections of 2003 and
2004," and with President Obasanjo's "imperious style of
governance." Musa said the protest is meant to be a
"peaceful and nonviolent" method of demanding democracy from
the government. The CNPP had produced a list of demands,
including the resignation of President Obasanjo and the
conduct of free and fair elections, in advance of the April
19 anniversary of the 2003 Presidential elections. The CNPP
delayed holding the protest on that day, according to them,
"to continue coordination with the numerous groups that want
to take part."

NIGERIAN GOVERNMENT RESPONSE?


5. (C) GON spokesmen still oppose the rally (reftel) and
organizers do not have a permit for the demonstration. The
organizers say they are moving ahead without any police
permit, but have asked the police instead to provide security
for the marchers. According to one police official, the
group did apply for a permit to stage the rally, and the
Deputy Inspector for Abuja accepted delivery of the request
but told the organizers that he could not take action on it.
"The Inspector General (of Police) will make the decision,"
he reportedly advised the organizers. Some of the organizers
have complained that security in Abuja already has been
tightened and many buses of potential demonstrators are being
turned back on the highways into town. (NOTE: The GON
normally restricts crowds going to the National Mosque in
Abuja on Fridays by limiting bus traffic on the highways into
town. END NOTE.)
ROBERTS