WORRIES ABOUT SECURITY, NOT ABOUT STABILITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABUJA 000709

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/21/2014
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM ELAB ASEC NI
SUBJECT: WORRIES ABOUT SECURITY, NOT ABOUT STABILITY

REF: LAGOS 637

COUNSELOR JAMES MAXSTADT FOR REASONS 1.5 b AND d.


1. (C) SUMMARY: Several press reports indicate that Nigerian
security agencies are becoming increasingly worried about the
potential of the opposition groups to create trouble on the
streets, specifically a group of opposition politicians
called the Coalition of Nigerian Political Parties (CNPP),
and factions of street thugs collectively referred to as the
Oodua Peoples Congress (OPC). There are unconfirmed reports
that the Government may soon clamp down on both by arresting
leaders or restricting their movements. END SUMMARY.

CNPP


2. (U) Presidential Spokesman Remi Oyo described anyone
participating in a proposed May 3 protest against President
Obasanjo as an "enemy of the State." The CNPP is organizing
the protest with cooperation from many prominent members of
political parties, unions, civil society and the largest
ethnic interest groups in the country. Mrs. Oyo added,
"Anyone who seeks to heat the system now should be regarded
as an enemy." This statement came amidst several attempts by
the Nigerian security agencies to stop the proposed mass
action. The CNPP put off its original date for the protest
from the anniversary of Obasanjo's election to May 3 because
it was too difficult to coordinate. Several meetings between
GON security officials and CNPP figures have been reported,
but the CNPP has not given up. ANPP and APGA 2003
presidential candidates Buhari and Ojukwu, and many other
opposition activists and politicians, promise to lead the
CNPP march in Abuja.


3. (C) Gani Fawehinmi, the famous Lagos-based lawyer, human
rights activist and 2003 Presidential Candidate of the
National Conscience Party (NCP),claims GON security forces
are especially focusing on him. (COMMENT: Fawehinmi is a
severe critic of all Nigerian governments. He has been
jailed several times by past military administrations. In
addition to opposing Obasanjo now, he is the lawyer for Orji
Kalu -- a sitting PDP Governor widely seen as a political
enemy of Obasanjo -- in a suit against Obasanjo ally Tony
Anenih. Fawehinmi is lending his personal support for the
CNPP mass action, although he has stated publicly that his
party will not participate. The PDP has tried to portray the
Nigerian opposition as ethnic zealots mostly coming from the
Northern and, to a limited extent, Eastern parts of Nigeria,
even though Fawehinmi is a Yoruba from the southwest. END
COMMENT.)


4. (U) Notwithstanding the Presidency's strong public and
private opposition to the CNPP march, ruling PDP party
chairman Audu Ogbeh is reported in the newspapers as having
expressed support for the CNPP's holding a demonstration.
"It is the right of everyone in a democracy," Ogbeh told
newsmen in Abuja on 20 April. He claimed that the PDP would
organize its own counter-demonstration "after the CNPP
finishes its own."

OPC


5. (U) Although not a part of the CNPP, the Oodua Peoples
Congress (OPC) is also drawing the ire of GON security
forces. Twenty six OPC members were arrested in Lagos after
a bloody clash April 19 between the police and elements of
the group. According to sources, the clash was sparked when
police in Mushin area received a report of some OPC members
molesting a commercial sex worker.


6. (U) Attempts to arrest the accused by the plain-clothes
security personnel sent to Ijeshadato, a Lagos suburb, were
resisted by OPC members. Fighting spread to other Lagos
locales resulting in deaths and several injuries to police
officers, OPC fighters and bystanders. The Lagos Police
Commissioner was forced to dispatch reinforcements, including
anti-riot police, to contain the violence.

COMMENT


7. (C) Incidents of violence around the country are creating
a tense atmosphere in Nigeria, made more tense by the recent
arrests of military officers and speculation on a coup
attempt. With Obasanjo's opponents seeking avenues to
express themselves, the combination of high tension and many
thugs available for hire make it more likely that otherwise
peaceful actions could turn into violence.
ROBERTS