COUP RUMORS REFLECT TENSION IN NIGERIA

S E C R E T ABUJA 000586

SIPDIS

NOFORN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/05/2014
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PHUM NI
SUBJECT: COUP RUMORS REFLECT TENSION IN NIGERIA

REF: A. ABUJA 583


B. ABUJA 584

Classified By: CDA RICK ROBERTS FOR REASONS 1.5 (b) AND (d).



1. (S/NF) SUMMARY: Rumors of a coup attempt began on April
Fool,s Day, but no one was laughing. The GON reported that
there had been a "breach of security" but denied any coup
attempt. Still, Major Hamza al-Mustapha was taken from his
maximum security prison for questioning by military
intelligence. The GON,s security services have interrogated
at least fifty military officers (mostly mid-rank officers)
and at least 100 civilians. Reports indicate that about 25
remain in custody and that a military tribunal has been
established to try at least some of them. One bridagier who
was interrogated maintains that at least three officers have
been executed. There is no indication that a coup attempt
took place. Rather, it seems that President Obasanjo,s
paranoia about the military and his desire to exact a measure
of revenge on al-Mustapha are driving the witch-hunt. END
SUMMARY.


2. (U) Rumors of a coup attempt shook the GON on April
Fool,s Day as the government moved to round up the usual
suspects. Beginning with the snatching of Maj. Hamza
al-Mustapha, Chief Security Officer for General Sani Abacha
and currently awaiting trial for a laundry list of crimes,
including murder and theft, from the Kirikiri Maximum
Security Prison in Lagos on 31 March, the GON investigation
has expanded to include at least 150 persons. Presidency and
military spokesmen say that no coup was attempted. They term
the roundup as an investigation of a "security breach,"
allegedly arising from a phone call al-Mustapha made to the
President from his cell.


3. (C) At least fifty military officers have been
questioned in relation to the "breach." Various military and
civilian sources say that about 25 remain in detention.
About 100 civilians have also been interrogated but it is
unknown if any remain in detention. According to several of
those interrogated, the focus of the questioning was on their
contacts with al-Mustapha. While no pattern for the
detentions is obvious, one military detainee claimed that the
security services were rounding up "any officer who made a
comment during our Town Hall meetings." (NOTE: President
Obasanjo made a tour of the country in the last four months,
meeting with military officers at each stop to explain his
policies and solicit suggestions for improving the lot of the
military. END NOTE)


4. (C) A military tribunal has reportedly been established
at a military base in Abuja in order to try those charged
with coup plotting. According to one Igbo civilian in the
Presidency, about ten people are expected to stand trial.
"Most of them are northerners," he claimed. It is uncertain
if any of the trial will be made public, but it is expected
to conclude its business within one month.


5. (S/NF) A source within Nigeria,s State Security
Services (SSS) with access to the Director's office claims
that three officers have already been executed. A brigadier
from Defense Headquarters who underwent questioning makes the
same claim. They say the deaths took place at a military
base in Kontagora, Niger State on the night of 1 April. The
brigadier says the three may be listed as casualties from a
"training exercise." According to the SSS officer, one of
the three was the son of a traditional ruler from Niger State
and all three were Colonels.


6. (S) COMMENT: According to the government's calculation,
this is the fourth coup attempt that they have been able to
foil. Evidently, the GON is rounding up suspects believed to
have plotted to stage a coup in January, 2004. Regardless of
the seriousness of this attempt, the Obasanjo regime remains
on shaky ground, primarily due to economic and political
corruption. Enhanced by Obasanjo's personal paranoia, the
GON is looking to blame its faults on detractors, outside
troublemakers and western governments. While the current
efforts may indeed be targeted at some elements who plotted
to overthrow the government, it seems to be looking backward
rather than forward. A huge sentiment that it is time for a
change exists within the military, the political class and
the general populace. Rather than solving some of Nigeria's
myriad problems, Obasanjo and his partners prefer to stalk
the ghosts of the past.




ROBERTS