POLITICAL ASSASSINATIONS FROM A TO W -- WITH X, Y

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 ABUJA 000581

SIPDIS

NOFORN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/24/2014
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PREL PHUM NI
SUBJECT: POLITICAL ASSASSINATIONS FROM A TO W -- WITH X, Y
AND Z LIKELY

REF: ABUJA 572

CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D'AFFAIRES RICK ROBERTS FOR REASONS 1.5
(B) and (D).


1. (S/NF) SUMMARY: Nigeria has been rocked by a wave of
assassinations since February, although political violence
has been common since the return to civilian rule in 1999.
We see two distinct patterns to the assassinations, those
stemming from local political rivalries, and those seeking to
sway national politics (analysis septel). President
Obasanjo, and virtually all politicians, have called on the
Nigeria Police Force to take action against the wave of
assassinations. Many politicians at all levels, both inside
and outside government, are involved in assassinating their
enemies, however, and we believe the wave will continue.
END SUMMARY.


2. (U) The latest wave of assassinations began in February
with the murder of PDP South-South Zonal Chairman Aminasoari
Dikibo. Following is a list of the most public of the
attacks.

a. 2/7/2004 Gunmen killed PDP Zonal Chairman Dikibo. The
police have made no progress in their investigation and a
judicial panel complained that "the government" is impeding
its work.

b. 2/13/2004 Chief K.O. Enefe, a prominent PDP chieftain
from Anambra was attacked in Lagos. He survived.

c. 3/3/2004 Benue Governor Akume's motorcade came under
attack resulting in the death of PDP Board of Trustees member
Andrew Agom. No arrests have been made.

d. 3/4/2004 PDP Local Government (LGA) Chairman candidate
for Bassa LGA, Kogi State Luke Shigbaba, was killed by
unknown assailants in his home. No arrests have been made.

e. 3/4/2004 A PDP LGA Chairman candidate in Edo State,
Daniel Asekhame, was attacked by gunmen at the Beverly Hotel
in Ekpoma. Asekhame survived, but was critically injured and
four others were killed. No arrests have been made.

f. 3/4/2004 Mr. Uche Ogbeh, Chairman of the Academic Staff
Union at Alvan Ikoku College of Education was killed in his
office by unknown assailants. Ogbeh, a relative of PDP
Chairman Audu Ogbeh, was in Owerri, Imo State. No arrests
have been made.

g. 3/5/2004 The motorcade of AD Governor Bola Tinubu of
Lagos state was attacked twice en route from Anambra in the
Southeast to Lagos. Tinubu was not in the motorcade at the
time. No arrests have been made.

h. 3/7/2004 Chairman of Kogi State Independent Electoral
Commission Phillip Olorunnipa was killed by unknown
assailants in his home. No arrests have been made.

i. 3/20/2004 Anambra PDP Governor Ngige,s motorcade was
involved in a traffic accident in Anambra state that
demolished his bullet-proof vehicle. At least one of the
drivers was killed. Ngige had been "kidnapped" by police in
July 2003 in a strange incident apparently designed to force
his resignation.

j. 3/21/2004 PDP Northwest Zonal Chairman Bala Yauri died
in a one-car accident near his home in Kebbi state.


3. (U) Other prominent assassinations during the Fourth
Republic (i.e. from 1999) include:

j. 9//9/1999 Sunday Ugwu, brother to Enugu State Legislator
Stanley Ugwu (PDP) was killed by unknown assailants. No
arrests have been made.

k. 3/5/2001 PDP member Momoh Lawal was killed by unknown
assailants in Okene, Kogi State. No arrests have been make.

l. 12/21/2001 State Assemblyman Odunayo Olagbaju was killed
in Ile-Ife, Osun State. No arrests have been made.

m. 12/23/2001 Attorney General Bola Ige was killed in
Ibadan, Osun State. Several arrests have been made in three
different groups. The latest group is standing trial,
although one prominent suspect was elected Senator from his
jail cell.

n. 8/13/2002 Janet Oladapo, a PDP member, was killed in
Odigbo LGA, Ondo State. No arrests have been made.

o. 8/2002 Kwara State PDP Chairman Ahmed Pategi was killed
by unknown assailants. No arrests have been made.

p. 8/2002 Victor Nwankwo, brother of Eastern Mandate Union
leader Arthur Nwankwo, was killed by unknown assailants. No
arrests have been made.

q. 9/1/2002 Branch chairman of the Nigerian Bar Association
Barnabus Igwe and his pregnant wife Abigail were killed and
their bodies mutilated by unknown assailants in Anambra
State. No arrests have been made.

r. 9/2002 PDP chieftain Chimere Ikoku was killed by unknown
assailants in Anambra State. No arrests have been made.

s. 11/2002 ANPP Senatorial hopeful Ogbonnaya Uche was
killed by unknown assailants in Imo State. No arrests have
been made.

t. 11/2002 AD member Emily Omope died from injuries
sustained in an acid attack in Ogun State. No arrests have
been made

u. 11/2002 PDP Gubernatorial aspirant Dele Orojo from Ogun
State was killed by unknown assailants in Lagos. No arrests
have been made.

v. 12/2002 UNPP member Isyaku Mohammed was killed by
unknown assailants in Kano State. No arrests have been made.

w. 2/2003 PDP founding member Marshall Harry was killed by
unknown assailants in Abuja. From Rivers State, Harry had
jumped to the ANPP and was spearheading ANPP Presidential
candidate Muhammadu Buhari,s campaign efforts in the
South-South area. Arrests were made, but the only eyewitness
claims that the police have arrested the wrong suspects. No
trial has been scheduled.

Numerous other threats and attacks have taken place within
these timeframes, and this cable does not deal with the many
attacks and killings directly related to the conduct of the
2003 elections.

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HOW THE ELECTION CHANGED ASSASSINATIONS
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4. (C) Of the above incidents, the Dikibo, Agom, Ogbeh,
Tinubu, Ngige, Harry, Nwankwo, Ige, Olagbaju and Yauri
attacks are thought to be connected to national politics.
The most notorious during the 2003 election campaign were the
killings of Ige, Olagbaju, Nwankwo and Harry. The popular
view is that the PDP faced difficulties winning the election
in the three northern zones of Nigeria, so it thought it had
to make absolutely certain it would win the southern three
zones.

-- Bola Ige, an AD chieftain, had joined the 1999 Obasanjo
PDP cabinet. He had determined to stand against Obasanjo and
the PDP in the Southwest in 2003, however, and had begun
laying plans to refocus the AD,s party platform in the area.

-- Olagbaju had connections to Osun Deputy Governor Omisore,
who is now on trial for Ige,s death.

-- Harry and Nwankwo were apparently killed to keep them
from using their money and influence against the PDP in the
critical Southeast and South-South areas during the 2003
elections.

5. (S/NF) Now that the elections have returned the PDP to
power, the more recent wave of attacks on Dikibo, Agom,
Ogbeh, Tinubu, Ngige and Yauri appear to be intra-PDP
affairs. Former Minister of Works Tony Anenih and
Presidential Adviser Andy Uba are widely thought to be using
threats, intimidation and assassinations in order to install
Anenih as the next PDP party chairman, and PDP Governor Orji
Kalu has openly accused Anenih of plotting to assassinate
him. Former Minister of Foreign Affairs Sule Lamido is also
often fingered as a partner in these activities.

6. (S/NF) Dikibo, Agom and Yauri certainly were members of
the PDP's party hierarchy that Anenih had been attempting to
replace. Agom, whose death is publicly viewed as collateral
damage from an attack on Benue State Governor Akume, could as
easily have been the intended victim (or one of two intended
victims). The reports of the attack on Akume,s motorcade do
not coincide with the photos of the victims and some are
asking whether Akume himself was part of the attack to
eliminate Agom. While Ngige and Yauri apparently were
involved in automobile accidents, not an uncommon occurrence
in Nigeria, they were on the same day. Ngige,s history of
troubles and a letter Yauri sent to the Inspector General of
Police alleging threats to his life (similar to Kalu's
accusation) just prior to the accident raise serious
questions that have not been answered.
--------------
IF ALL POLITICS ARE LOCAL,
PERHAPS SO ARE POLITICAL ASSASSINATIONS
--------------


7. (S/NF) A different, but widely held, view is that
national politics is becoming mostly a rivalry between the
state governors and central PDP officials like Anenih, Uba
and Lamido. Certainly many of the governors have voiced to
poloffs that they fear the center. The center has good
reason to fear them; a collection of state governors almost
denied Obasanjo the PDP nomination before the 2003 election,
and the governors have increased their power in recent local
elections (reftel).

8. (C) Local politics can be just as dangerous as national,
even when ethnic conflicts are not involved. Kwara state has
become as famous for political murders as Anambra is for
political chicanery. Kwara PDP kingpin Dr. Olusola Saraki
was successful at installing his son as governor and his
daughter as senator, both on the PDP ticket. Originally with
the ANPP, Saraki jumped ship over disagreements with the
former ANPP Governor of Kwara. Saraki's move into the Kwara
PDP threatened to displace some from its leadership. In
2002, Kwara lost two PDP party chairmen in quick succession,
including Pategi from the list above. Several more death
threats, "assassination attempts," and continuous inter-party
clashes kept the situation boiling there until the elections.
Saraki appears to have the upper hand for the moment, but
the history of Kwara suggests that his opponents are not
ready to "live and let live."


9. (C) Taraba State Governor Jolly Nname recently accused
his Deputy Governor and the state's Commissioner of Works of
attempting to assassinate him. The Deputy Governor was
impeached and the Commissioner is reportedly in jail.
Nigerian "democracy" is pretty rough all over, something we
will analyze septel.
ROBERTS