NIGERIA: PRESIDENT OBASANJO'S DELTA STRATEGY?

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 001504

SIPDIS

NOFORN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/31/2014
TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR ECON PINR NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: PRESIDENT OBASANJO'S DELTA STRATEGY?

REF: (A) Abuja 1486, (B) Abuja 1472

Classified by: Ambassador John Campbell for reasons 1.5
(B) and (D)


1. (S) Summary: Judith B. Asuni, the head of the NGO
Academic Associates PeaceWorks and close to Obasanjo and
Stephen L. Davis, a consultant working for Shell,
debriefed me on what they say is Obasanjo's current
thinking on the Delta and foreshadowed a request for
assistance from the U.S., UK and the Dutch for countering
criminal behavior in the Delta. End summary.


2. (S) Asuni and Davis said that they spent several hours
with President Obasanjo the evening of August 31 on the
Delta. Also present were representatives of the Delta
youth gangs. Davis said that over the past few days there
has been significant bloodshed in Port Harcourt (where he
is based) that has not been reported in the Nigerian
media. He said that the president complained that news of
Delta developments did not reach him. According to Asuni
and Davis, Obasanjo betrayed little knowledge of the
corruption of the Nigerian navy, which plays an important
role in facilitating oil bunkering, or of corruption
within the Rivers state government. They said that
Nigerian businessman Otile (frequently identified as a
bunkering kingpin) is widely regarded as untouchable
because he is so close to Obasanjo--and that the people
around Obasanjo ensure that he does not hear of the
wrongdoing committed by any of his close associates.
Nevertheless, Obasanjo appeared to have reached the
following conclusion: that bunkering fueled the influx of
arms into the Delta which were basic to the power of
various youth gangs, militias, and criminal elements.
But, Obasanjo believes that Nigeria does not have the
ability to "manage," let alone "police," the off-shore
Nigeria Exclusive Economic Zone. And that "management" or
"policing" was essential to bring bunkering under control.
To do that, Obasanjo believes he will need outside help.
These ideas would be developed in the Delta study, to
which Obasanjo referred in his meeting with Sen. Hagel
(REFTEL B).


3. (S) The Delta study, according to Asuni and Davis, is
being coordinated by the General Managing Director of the
Nigerian National Petroleum corporation, who is drawing on
the State Security Service and other internal intelligence
sources. They thought that the Delta study would mostly
focus on domestic factors, but growing out of it would be
a request for foreign assistance. Specifically, Asuni and
Davis said that Obasanjo is likely to ask the U.S., UK and
the Dutch governments for assistance in interdicting the
flow of arms into the Delta, the suppression of bunkering,
and money laundering. Obasanjo appeared to recognize that
such assistance was likely to involve a foreign military
component--Asuni and Davis talked about aerial and
satellite surveillance of shipping in the Gulf of Guinea.
Asuni and Davis said that the Delta youth representatives
(not further defined) also present at the August 31
meeting, supported the concept of international help,
though earlier they had reacted angrily to reports of U.S.
military exercises in the Gulf of Guinea.


4. (S) Comment: I cannot rule out that my visit by Asuni
and Davis was instigated by the Villa to foreshadow a
future conversation on U.S. assistance. Obasanjo often
prefers to work through non-governmental intermediaries,
and Asuni has been a close associate of his for years.
She has frequently facilitated U.S. mission appointment
requests with Obasanjo, and she has been a USAID
contractor in the past. Shell oil is the largest
petroleum company operating in Nigeria, and its operations
are highly exposed to violence as they are mostly land-
based. Shell, along with the other major oil companies,
would like a robust international effort to address Delta
violence, and I suspect there might be a self-serving
dimension to its involvement with this initiative. The
areas where Asuni and Davis say Obasanjo is likely to ask
for international assistance are also credible. They
portray Obasanjo as just waking up to the serious
implications of Delta violence to his presidency, to the
long-term viability of Nigeria. They also emphasize the
political difficulties Obasanjo would have in confronting
the corruption and complicity with oil bunkering that runs
right through the political and military establishments in
Nigeria.


5. (S) comment Continued: In my view, they underestimate
how much Obasanjo would be asking us for, and the
political difficulties Obasanjo would create for himself
by an obvious U.S. military presence in the Gulf of
Guinea. Their contention that Obasanjo is only just now
waking up to the magnitude of the Delta crisis lacks
credibility. The next step will be to see the study
Obasanjo has commissioned. End Comment.
CAMPBELL