SUSPENDED PLATEAU GOVERNOR DARIYE: THE PROBLEM,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 001278

SIPDIS

DEPT PASS TO AF/W
LONDON AND PARIS PASS TO AFRICA WATCHERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/19/2014
TAGS: PHUM PGOV PREL ASEC NI DOMESTICPOLITICS
SUBJECT: SUSPENDED PLATEAU GOVERNOR DARIYE: THE PROBLEM,
OR MERELY A SCAPEGOAT?

REF: A. ABUJA 1277

B. ABUJA 572

Classified By: AMBASSADOR JOHN CAMPBELL FOR REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D).


1. (C) Summary. Opinions differ on whether the behavior of
suspended Plateau State Governor Joshua Dariye was the cause
of the conflict in the state that led to the State of
Emergency (SOE),or whether he merely made a bad situation
worse. All observers agree that he certainly didn't help,
and that the state has other problems among its peoples.
Dariye himself was rambling and incoherent in a meeting with
Poloff, alternately accepting his fate and railing against
the President. Dariye, never popular in Plateau, still makes
noises about his future political career in spite of his
current predicament. This is the second of four Plateau
State cables. End Summary.

--------------
Dariye's Bumbling: The Cause . . .
--------------


2. (SBU) During a recent trip to Plateau state (ref A),
Emboffs encounted a variety of opinions. Most people,
including those who supported Dariye to win elections,
believed he did not handle the crisis effectively. Aside
from his apparent weaknesses in taking decisive action, such
as punishing and arresting those identified as the main
architects of the crisis, his inflammatory remarks fueled the
crisis. Before the SOE, Governor Dariye had granted many
interviews where he was quoted as referring to the
Hausa/Fulani as "settlers" and maintained that no matter how
long they lived in the state, their status as settlers would
not change.


3. (U) He had also taken some actions that portrayed him as
a partisan leader. During the last local council elections,
Dariye allowed elections to be held in 16 out of 17 local
government areas (LGAs),deliberately excluding the Jos North
LGA, where a Hausa/Fulani candidate would likely have emerged
as chairman. Hausa/Fulani Muslim candidates had won all past
elections in the area. Instead, Dariye appointed a Christian
non-Hausa/Fulani to head the Jos North council on a
"temporary basis," citing "security reports" as the reason.


4. (C) Ambassador Yahaya Kwande, a PDP kingmaker who had
supported Dariye, told Poloff Dariye had made a "big mistake"
by canceling the election in Jos North LGA, explaining that
"sacrificing" Jos North would not have affected the fortune
of Dariye's party, the PDP, in the State. The PDP would
still have maintained its overwhelming majority in the State,
winning 13 out of 17 LGAs. Dismissing the alleged
"unfavorable reports" on conditions in Jos North LGA as mere
"bad political calculations," Kwande asserted that elections
were held in Wase, Kanam, Langtang and Shendam, where
violence was ongoing at the time of the elections. Kwande
also blamed Dariye for failing to create separate districts
for the Hausa/Fulani in Jos and Yelwa-Shendam: this inaction
heightened tension and suspicions that eventually led to
bloody clashes. NOTE: The March local government elections
were no better in Plateau State than in the rest of the
country where turnout was possibly in the teens and little
effort was made to put the trappings of an election onto
predetermined results. (REF B). END NOTE.


5. (C) Yelwa Council Chairman Garba also criticized Dariye
for the escalation of the crisis in Yelwa-Shendam. He stated
that if soldiers initially stationed in Yelwa-Shendam had
been in place when the militias came, the carnage would not
have taken place. He accused Governor Dariye of deliberately
ordering the soldiers and police to vacate the area, even
though security reports indicated that the militias would
likely attack.

--------------
Or A Convenient Excuse?
--------------


6. (C) Suspended Plateau State Assembly Speaker Simon Lalong
confessed that all parties in the State were guilty of using
religion and ethnicity to achieve a political advantage. He
explained that the endemic poverty in Nigeria has transformed
the common people into easy tools for manipulations by the
elite. "The common people react to situations based on the
information they receive from the elite. The elite can
manipulate, twist and interpret such information to their
personal advantage," Lalong declared. He said the elite are
the ones responsible for maintaining peace, not the common
people. Lalong recalled that attempts were made by the
Plateau State Government to bring peace back to these warring
communities. For instance, the Government decided to create
two districts in Yelwa-Shendam, one belonging to the
"indigenes," the other to "settlers." But when the final
list was released, said Lalong, "the computer had mistakenly
deleted the district assigned to the settlers." This
"computer error" sparked spontaneous protests that escalated
into communal violence.


7. (SBU) Speaker Lalong added that problems like cow theft
have led to hostilities between the cattle-herding Fulani and
the subsistence-farming natives. Such a problem would start
from two people: the cow owner, usually a Fulani Muslim, and
the native who stole the cow, most likely a Christian. The
resulting conflict, when the owner either tries to recover
the cows or punishes the accused thief, has often been
mislabeled as religious conflict.


8. (C) In the framework of national politics, Dariye became
irrelevant to President Obasanjo's plans and was seen as a
supporter of Vice President Atiku Abubakar. According to one
state official, Plateau State had been suffering from a lack
of resources "for months" before declaration of the SOE. An
observer from neighboring Benue State, where conflict
continues today, pointed out that the SOE brought no
additional security forces to the state and that the
President, with direct control of the military and police,
could have brought an end to the fighting at any time.

--------------
Dariye Finds His Own Scapegoat
--------------


9. (C) Dariye told Poloff that powerful Abuja-based Plateau
State natives like Deputy Senate President Ibrahim Mantu (an
Obasanjo acolyte) were responsible for the SOE and were
currently plotting for the its extension. He said Mantu, who
hails from the same senatorial zone as Dariye, wanted to
terminate Dariye's political career. Dariye speculated that
Mantu was particularly jittery that Dariye might express
interest in contesting Mantu's senatorial seat in 2007.
"Mantu is afraid that after my tenure expires in 2007, I will
contest his seat. Hence, he is using his closeness with the
President to destroy me politically".

--------------
Is It All God's Will, or Just an Enemy Plot?
--------------


10. (C) Comment: During the 90-minute meeting with Poloff
at his home in Bukuru, Dariye rambled incoherently about
"plots" and "enemies," alternately blaming conspiracies
against him and claiming that "God's will" is being done.
Dariye claimed to be supported by 98% of the people of
Plateau State, and that over a million Plateau State
residents had visited him at his home. Although he has
continued to support President Obasanjo publicly, Dariye
expressed anger that the President had, in his words,
"treated him unfairly." When asked what the future holds for
him, Dariye spoke of continuing to run his two finance
companies and hinted that he may even run for president
someday. But even in a country where columnists wax
nostalgic for the Abacha days, it would be a surprise for
voters to forget that Dariye, unelected in two elections,
first rose to national prominence by being suspended from the
governor's office for incompetence. End Comment.
CAMPBELL