NLC PLANS GENERAL STRIKE TO BEGIN JUNE 9

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 001012

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/07/2014
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PHUM ELAB NI
SUBJECT: NLC PLANS GENERAL STRIKE TO BEGIN JUNE 9

REF: ABUJA 1009

Classified By: CDA Rick L. Roberts. Reasons 1.5 (B & D).


1. (SBU) Summary: The Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) has
announced a 21-day general strike to begin June 9 against the
latest increase in the price of gasoline. Less than twelve
hours until its deadline, numerous organizations are
supporting the strike even as efforts are under way to
resolve the dispute. The NLC has said that there is "no
going back" from what it terms the "mother of all strikes"
except reducing the price of gasoline, while the GON says the
strike would be "threatening Nigeria's nascent democracy."
The strike may peter out the first or second day, but if it
takes hold the most likely course would be to start small and
grow larger. The unions have reportedly threatened to cut
oil production/exports under the strike, but that and threats
to shut down air traffic may only be rhetoric. End Summary.

ALL IN FAVOR?
--------------


2. (SBU) The NLC announced a 21-day general strike beginning
tomorrow, June 9, to protest against higher fuel prices. Its
leader, Adams Oshiomhole, promised this would be the "mother
of all strikes," saying the only way to avert the action is
for the GON to roll back the price of gasoline. The NLC has
announced several strikes in the past year, only for each one
to be averted due to last-minute "compromises." The July
2003 strike actually took place, but then was suspended when
the GON agreed to hold the price of gasoline to 34 Naira per
liter. The GON has since raised the ceiling three times and
now gasoline is selling for over 50 Naira per liter in Abuja
and Lagos (130 Naira=1 USD).


3. (C) Dissent within labor's ranks is causing confusion on
the strike. Most NLC leaders no longer trust Oshiomhole, who
is said to have taken 100 million Naira from the GON to call
off the last strike. The NLC has barred him from direct
participation in any negotiation with the GON, and this ban
appears to have garnered support from among other civil and
political groups. An NLC organizer told poloff that plans
are in place and the strike will commence "as scheduled."
The Lagos State NLC Chairman said measures have been taken to
ensure the strike in Lagos is complete, and anyone wishing to
leave Lagos should do so before midnight tonight, June 8.


4. (U) Many unions not directly affiliated with the NLC have
offered their support, including the National Union of Banks,
Insurance and Financial Institutions Employees (NUBIFIE),the
Association of Senior Staff of Banks, Insurance and Financial
Institutions (ASSIBIFI),the National Union of Road Transport
Workers (NURTW). Their members have been directed to clear
all roads by midnight June 8 and remain at home during the
strike. The Trade Union Congress (TUC) and the Congress of
Free Trade Unions (CFTU) also gave the GON a seven-day
ultimatum to rescind the price hike when they announced
support for the strike.


5. (U) The opposition Conference of Nigerian Political
Parties (CNPP) and Constitutional Rights Project (CRP) all
threw their support behind the strike, bringing in
heavyweight political actors such as Balarabe Musa, Gani
Fawehinmi, Wole Soyinka, Muhammadu Buhari and Chukwuemeka
Ojukwu. The All Nigerian People's Party (ANPP),saying that
three weeks was not enough time to change the GON, called for
the strike to last six months.


6. (U) The Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN) has
announced that it supports the strike, to identify with the
"suffering of Nigerians." The National Association of
Nigerian Students (NANS) announced that it supported the
strike and that it would defend strikers against "saboteurs"
who would disrupt the strike. (Note: It is also quite likely
that a successful strike would be enforced by "area boys,"
gangs for hire like the Oodua Peoples Congress. End Note.)
The Academic Staff Union of Universities (ASUU) and the
Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN) have also announced
support for the strike.

ON THE OTHER SIDE
--------------


7. (U) President Obasanjo, on his way to the G8 Sea Island
Summit, told reporters that the GON would hold talks with and
engage dialogue in an effort to resolve the issue. However,
he tempered his nice words with a certain amount of vitriolic
spice, "Where it is needed, we will dialogue; when necessary,
we will explain our actions." While calling on Nigerians to
remain peaceful, he threatened to use "all available force"
to stop the strike.


8. (U) Striking a similar chord, Vice President Atiku
Abubakar called the NLC strike a threat to Nigeria's "nascent
democracy." National Chairman of the ruling People's
Democratic Party (PDP) Audu Ogbeh earlier strongly opposed
the strike, pleading that it's not too late for dialogue, but
termed the strike announcement "a declaration of war" by the
NLC. Ogbeh warned the NLC not to "challenge Obasanjo, who
was a military man and will respond with force."


9. (SBU) The Crude Oil and Products Traders Association of
Nigeria (COPTAN) and the Petroleum Pricing and Marketing
Committee (PPMC) pleaded with the NLC to allow the fuel price
deregulation policy, claiming it would provide a long-term
benefit for the populace. (NOTE: The chairman of the PPMC,
Rasheed Gbadamosi, is himself a petroleum marketer who
controls a portion of the country's imports and owns over 100
tanker trucks personally. END NOTE.) Talks between union
representatives and other interested parties continue under
various auspices, including the Senate and the governors.

POTENTIAL INTERNATIONAL IMPACT
--------------


10. (U) The National Union of Air Transport Employees
(NUATE) has written to foreign embassies asking their
countries' airlines not to fly into Nigerian airspace during
the strike. According to NUATE, any foreign airline
operating into the country within the period will be doing so
at its own risk, as its air traffic controllers will not be
on duty to clear them. The GON's Nigerian Airspace
Management Agency (NAMA),however, insists that control
towers at all airports will be adequately staffed.


11. (C) The two oil unions, NUPENG in the NLC and PENGASSEN
in the TUC, have both reportedly threatened that the strike
will include crude oil production/exporting. It remains to
be seen if this and the NUATE threat go beyond rhetoric.

COMMENT
--------------


12. (C) COMMENT: The NLC leadership, at levels under
Oshiomhole, are determined and there is widespread anger
among Nigerians that could become support for the strike.
Skepticism over Oshiomhole's previous performances is
understandably high, however, and the GON had little
difficulty squashing the CNPP's threatened "mass action" in
May. It is unclear whether the NLC strike will take or die
out quickly, but it is likely that the morning of June 9 will
see empty streets in Abuja. Nigerians may choose to remain
at home June 9, either in support of the strike or in fear
for their safety if they venture out. If the strike survives
day one, more people will be likely to join by June 10, but
it is unclear which services will suffer. Post EAC has met
to make appropriate preparations (reftel).
ROBERTS