Ruling family projects normalcy and stability in

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ABU DHABI 003855

SIPDIS

STATE FOR NEA/ARPI AND INR/B

STATE PASS TO USTR FOR DOUG BELL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/26/14
TAGS: PINR PGOV TC
SUBJECT: Ruling family projects normalcy and stability in
face of Zayed's precarious health

Ref: Abu Dhabi 3410

(U) Classified by Richard A. Albright, Charge d'Affaires,
a.i., reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: UAE President Sheikh Zayed is critically
ill, but his demise may not be imminent. The country's
leaders are extremely sensitive about the issue of his
health, reacting very negatively when the subject is
broached. Meanwhile, rumors about Zayed's precarious
health, and others about his demise, and often wild
speculation about alternative succession scenarios,
continue unabated. The UAEG has decided not to issue a
statement to dispel the rumors because it believes that
doing so would only stir up more rumors, an advisor to the
Minister of Information and Culture Sheikh Abdullah bin
Zayed (AbZ) told us. For their part, the ruling families
of the seven Emirates are making a show of normalcy,
demonstrating their strong ties with one another with
prominently publicized Ramadan visits. When Sheikh Zayed
passes away, we expect a stable transition, with Abu Dhabi
Crown Prince Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed becoming Abu Dhabi's
next Ruler and UAE President, and Abu Dhabi Deputy Crown
Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed becoming the next Crown
Prince. End Summary.


2. (C) The UAE began the month of Ramadan amid rumors that
Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan, the President of the UAE
since it became a federation in 1971, had either passed
away, or had slipped into a coma. Sheikh Zayed is reported
to be on life support. Sheikh Abdullah told the French
Ambassador in early October that Sheikh Zayed's health was
"stable," without getting drawn out on his prognosis.
There are rumors that he has liver cancer.


3. (C) Emboffs hear the rumors at cocktail receptions,
private dinners, coffee shops, sports events, and in the
hallways of the Embassy. Asked if Emiratis are hearing the
same rumors as expatriates, UAE University political
science professor Ebtisam Al Kitbi pulled out her mobile
phone and said, "We're sending each other text messages all
the time. It's like a favorite pastime." Without any
official confirmation one way or the other of Zayed's
health status, all of us are left to watching and listening
for tell-tale signs or hints. For example, when people see
official government vehicles speeding up the freeway from
Abu Dhabi to Al Ain, some jump to the conclusion that means
the ruling family is gathering around the patriarch's
deathbed to bid him farewell.

Rumors began after UAE gave up GCC summit
--------------


4. (C) The rumors began in earnest in September when the
government announced that the Kingdom of Bahrain had asked,
and the UAEG had concurred, to host the GCC summit in
December 2004. The summit was to have been held in a
magnificent new hotel being built on the Abu Dhabi
Corniche. Abu Dhabi also was in the process of sprucing up
miles of highways and boulevards linking the international
airport and the hotel/convention center. Without further
official explanation for the change in venue for the GCC
summit, rumors began circulating that Sheikh Zayed was
close to death and would not be able to greet fellow GCC
leaders. Bahrain's Crown Prince told the President's
counter terrorism advisor, Fran Townsend, on Sept. 15 that
the change in venue was related to Sheikh Zayed's poor
health. Others said that the conference center and related
road and infrastructure projects had fallen behind
schedule. A media advisor to Information and Culture
Minister Sheikh Abdullah told Polchief at the time of the
decision that even he did not know the real reason behind
the decision.


5. (C) The rumor mill had been put in motion and has been
active since. The same advisor to Sheikh Abdullah told
Polchief on Oct. 24 that there was talk within the UAEG of
issuing a statement regarding Sheikh Zayed's state of
health, but that they refrained from doing so because they
think that would only stir up more rumors. "People will
think we're trying to hide something," he said. The Al
Nahyan family, rulers of the Emirate of Abu Dhabi, is
taking all of this very well, the advisor added. The
rulers have been making numerous public appearances during
Ramadan, including paying visits to one another to exchange
holiday greetings, and attendance at an important
international conference on Islam in Abu Dhabi. They have
met with several USG officials during this period,
including USTR Zoellick and A/S for Political-Military
Affairs Bloomfield, giving them the impression of business
as usual.

Stratfor report riles UAEG
--------------


6. (C) While the UAEG has not issued a single public
statement about the health of the President or the
succession implications, Information and Culture Ministry
advisors have told Emboffs privately that a recent report
on the UAE succession by the Texas-based Strategic
Forecasting is completely unfounded. The report, published
on the Internet, suggests as a possibility that Abu Dhabi
Deputy Crown Prince and Armed Forces Chief of Staff Sheikh
Mohammed bin Zayed (MbZ) might "buy" the presidency from
Khalifa (who is reportedly less well-off than MbZ) in
exchange for some other political and economic benefits.
Our Ministry of Information contacts told us such a
suggestion is ridiculous given that it is Khalifa who holds
Abu Dhabi's purse strings, citing the Abu Dhabi Investment
Authority in particular. Khalifa also controls several
major businesses and a vast investment portfolio.
(Comment: If anyone is "less well-off," and that can only
be a very relative term among the Al Nahyan, it would be
MBZ and the other five Bani Fatima (the six sons of Zayed
by his current wife Fatima),whose business interests are
far more limited.)


7. (C) The same report suggests that the "well-loved and
widely respected" Sultan bin Zayed could become the Ruler
of Abu Dhabi and then President, with Mohammed bin Zayed as
the real power behind the throne. (Comment: Sheikh Sultan
may be well-loved among some Abu Dhabi tribes, but widely
respected stretches plausibility.) As we have noted in
reftel, Sultan has had periodic bouts with substance abuse
and gained notoriety for his mismanagement of funds for
high-profile projects. The report also even suggests that
Dubai, or possibly Sultan Al Qassimi, the Ruler of the
Emirate of Sharjah, might make a surprise bid for the
presidency, something we view as equally unlikely. Abu
Dhabi's status as the wealthiest, most populous, and
largest Emirate, and its conscious effort to distribute its
wealth across the other Emirates make a challenge to its
hold on the presidency unlikely. From what we know from
our contacts, the Abu Dhabi-Dubai relationship is strong,
cemented by the solid relationship of Mohammed Bin Zayed
and Mohammed Bin Rashid. If newspaper photos are any
indication nd they often are here he press this week
showed a smiling Mohammed Bin Rashid hosting a smiling
Mohammed Bin Zayed at an Iftar dinner in Dubai, and a
smiling Crown Prince Khalifa with a contented-looking
Sheikh Hamdan Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Deputy Ruler of Dubai,
during an exchange of Ramadan greetings in Abu Dhabi.
Stratfor cites one other "remote possibility" for
president: Sheikh Zayed's grandson (the report mentions
only that he has been schooled in the West). No one we
know of has ever suggested such an option, and we seriously
doubt the Emirati leadership would even contemplate it.
One of the things that bothers the UAEG about all this wild
speculation is that Stratfor's clients include Fortune 500
companies and major government agencies.


8. (C) As we have reported before (see reftel),Abu Dhabi
Crown Prince Sheikh Khalifa is set to become Ruler of Abu
Dhabi when his father passes away. We have never heard of
any suggestion otherwise from anyone here. Nor have we
heard any suggestion that the UAE Supreme Council,
comprised of the Rulers of the seven Emirates, would elect
the ruler of any other Emirate as President.

Comment:
--------------


9. (C) It is apparent that Sheikh Zayed is critically ill,
likely on life support, and possibly suffering from
terminal cancer. How long he will survive remains a matter
of constant conjecture. Another constant is that the
ruling family is not talking, but doing everything possible
to project normalcy. When Sheikh Zayed passes on, we
expect a smooth transition with Khalifa's election
occurring without delay.
ALBRIGHT