Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
03ZAGREB305
2003-02-11 17:35:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Zagreb
Cable title:  

DOES THE OTP HAVE A STRATEGY FOR CROATIA?

Tags:  KAWC PGOV PREL HR ICTY RV 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ZAGREB 000305 

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR, EUR/SCE, S/WCI
THE HAGUE FOR JOHNSON/KAYE/WHEATON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 1.6X6 5 YEARS AFTER CLOSURE OF ICTY
TAGS: KAWC PGOV PREL PGOV PREL PGOV PREL HR RVKAWC ICTY HR RV
SUBJECT: DOES THE OTP HAVE A STRATEGY FOR CROATIA?

REF: A. THE HAGUE 236


B. JOHNSON - SILBERSTEIN 2/7/03 E-MAIL

C. 02 ZAGREB 2298
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 ZAGREB 00305 01 OF 03 120643Z

D. 02 ZAGREB 2565

CLASSIFIED BY: AMBASSADOR LAWRENCE G. ROSSIN, REASONS 1.5(B)
AND (D) AND 1.6

SUMMARY
--------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ZAGREB 000305

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR, EUR/SCE, S/WCI
THE HAGUE FOR JOHNSON/KAYE/WHEATON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 1.6X6 5 YEARS AFTER CLOSURE OF ICTY
TAGS: KAWC PGOV PREL PGOV PREL PGOV PREL HR RVKAWC ICTY HR RV
SUBJECT: DOES THE OTP HAVE A STRATEGY FOR CROATIA?

REF: A. THE HAGUE 236


B. JOHNSON - SILBERSTEIN 2/7/03 E-MAIL

C. 02 ZAGREB 2298
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 ZAGREB 00305 01 OF 03 120643Z

D. 02 ZAGREB 2565

CLASSIFIED BY: AMBASSADOR LAWRENCE G. ROSSIN, REASONS 1.5(B)
AND (D) AND 1.6

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) THOMAS OSORIO, HEAD OF ICTY'S ZAGREB OFFICE, TOLD US
THAT OTP SPOKESPERSON FLORENCE HARTMANN'S FEBRUARY 5
STATEMENT CRITICIZING THE GOC FOR FAILING TO APPREHEND ICTY
INDICTEE ANTE GOTOVINA AND FOR FAILING TO MEET ICTY
INFORMATION REQUESTS REPRESENTS THE OPENING SALVO OF A NEW
OTP BID TO PRESS THE GOC TO TAKE MORE VISIBLE ACTION TO
ARREST THE FUGITIVE. OSORIO SAID THE OTP IS "CONVINCED" THAT
THE GOTOVINA IS HIDING IN CROATIA, BUT WAS UNWILLING (OR
UNABLE) TO OFFER CONCRETE EVIDENCE TO SUBSTANTIATE HARTMANN'S
HARSH CLAIMS. OSORIO, WHO WAS NOT/NOT CONSULTED BEFORE
HARTMANN'S PRESS STATEMENT, THOUGHT THAT HER CRITICISM OF GOC
DOCUMENT SHARING LAPSES WAS OVERSTATED.


2. (C) WHILE THE OTP OFTEN HAS GOOD REASON TO BE FRUSTRATED
WITH THE GOC -- IT IS A RELUCTANT AND FAIR WEATHER PARTNER
-- THE OTP URGENTLY NEEDS TO IMPROVE THE MANAGEMENT OF ITS
"CROATIA ACCOUNT." MISSTEPS IN THE NOW-SUSPENDED BOBETKO WAR
CRIMES CASE, PARTICULARLY THE OTP DECISION NOT TO INTERVIEW
THE SUSPECT BEFORE INDICTING HIM (REF C),HELPED FOSTER A
CRISIS THAT WRACKED THE GOC IN FALL 2002, DIMINISHED ICTY'S
CREDIBILITY HERE AND COMPLICATED CROATIAN EU ASPIRATIONS WITH
NOTHING TO SHOW FOR THE EFFORT. WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRESS
THE GOC ON GOTOVINA AND ICTY COOPERATION WRIT LARGE.
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PAGE 03 ZAGREB 00305 01 OF 03 120643Z

HOWEVER, PRESSURE MUST BE WELL ORCHESTRATED AND WELL THOUGHT
OUT. WITHOUT SOLID GROUNDING IN FACT, BETTER INTERNAL
COORDINATION AND PRIOR CONSULTATION WITH US AND ICTY'S OTHER
SUPPORTERS, THE OTP'S GOTOVINA "STRATEGY" MAY END UP BEING
JUST ANOTHER FUTILE AND PYRRHIC CONFRONTATION WITH THE GOC.
END SUMMARY.

FIGHTING WORDS...
--------------


3. (C) IN THE STRONGEST LANGUAGE USED BY AN ICTY OFFICIAL
SINCE THE CRISIS OVER GENERAL BOBETKO FLARED IN SEPTEMBER
2002, HARTMANN ACCUSED THE GOC OF FAILING TO APPREHEND
FUGITIVE CROATIAN GENERAL AND ICTY INDICTEE ANTE GOTOVINA.
GOTOVINA, HARTMANN ALLEGED, WAS "TRAVELING FREELY IN
CROATIA." HARTMANN ALSO ACCUSED THE GOC OF "SELECTIVE, SLOW
AND INCOMPLETE COMPLIANCE WITH SPECIFIC REQUESTS FOR
DOCUMENTS."


4. (C) IN LIGHT OF HARTMANN'S STATEMENT, WE MET FEBRUARY 6
WITH ICTY ZAGREB OFFICE RESREP THOMAS OSORIO (PROTECT
THROUGHOUT). ALTHOUGH HE WOULD NOT -- OR COULD NOT -- GO
INTO DETAILS, OSORIO ASSERTED THAT THE OTP HAS EVIDENCE TO
BACK UP HARTMANN'S ACCUSATION ON GOTOVINA. THERE ARE "NEW
SIGHTINGS AND NEW INFORMATION," ALTHOUGH HE SAID THAT NONE OF
THE NEW LEADS ARE AS SOLID AS THE REPORTED SFOR SIGHTING OF
GOTOVINA IN HERCEGOVINA IN 2002 (REF D). IN SUM, ICTY NOW IS
CONVINCED THAT GOTOVINA IS MOVING IN AND OUT OF CROATIA AND
THAT THE GOC HAS NOT/NOT BEEN ACTING IN GOOD FAITH TO
APPREHEND HIM. OSORIO NOTED THAT IF THE EU MADE GOTOVINA'S
CAPTURE A PRECONDITION FOR ACTING ON CROATIA'S EU MEMBERSHIP
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PAGE 04 ZAGREB 00305 01 OF 03 120643Z
APPLICATION, THE GOC WOULD CAPTURE THE GENERAL WITHIN "24
HOURS."

...AND A NEW OTP "STRATEGY"
--------------


5. (C) DURING OUR DISCUSSION, OSORIO CALLED HARTMANN AND
CONFIRMED THAT HER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED UNDER INSTRUCTIONS
FROM CHIEF PROSECUTOR DEL PONTE. OSORIO CONCLUDED THAT HER
STATEMENT WAS THE OPENING SALVO OF A NEW ICTY "STRATEGY" TO
FORCE THE GOC TO TAKE STRONGER ACTION TO FIND GOTOVINA, OR
SHOULD THE GOC BALK, DEMONSTRATE CATEGORICALLY THAT CROATIA
IS FAILING TO COMPLY WITH ITS ICTY OBLIGATIONS. ACCORDING
TO OSORIO, THIS STRATEGY WOULD CALL FOR CROATIAN LAW
ENFORCEMENT TO CONDUCT HIGH VISIBILITY RAIDS ON GOTOVINA'S
HOMES, INTERVIEW GOTOVINA'S ATTORNEYS AND ASSOCIATES AND
MOUNT ROADBLOCKS IN AREAS OF DALMATIA WHERE THE SUSPECT IS
BELIEVED TO FREQUENT. ICTY STAFF WILL ACTIVELY MONITOR THESE
AND OTHER ACTIVITIES AND MAY SEEK TO ACCOMPANY THE POLICE ON
THEIR RAIDS TO VERIFY GOC COMPLIANCE.


6. (C) OSORIO SAID THAT THIS NEW AGGRESSIVE STRATEGY HAS BEEN
THE CAUSE OF MUCH DEBATE WITHIN ICTY BETWEEN "ACTIVISTS," WHO

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CONFIDENTIAL PTQ7424

PAGE 01 ZAGREB 00305 02 OF 03 120644Z
ACTION SWCI-00

INFO LOG-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 SRPP-00 EUR-00 VC-00 TEDE-00
INR-00 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 NSCE-00 OMB-01
PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 SS-00
TRSE-00 T-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DRL-01 G-00 SAS-00
/003W
-------------- 34D23A 120644Z /20
P 111735Z FEB 03
FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9419
INFO AMEMBASSY BELGRADE PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY MOSCOW PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY SARAJEVO PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 ZAGREB 000305

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR, EUR/SCE, S/WCI
THE HAGUE FOR JOHNSON/KAYE/WHEATON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 1.6X6 5 YEARS AFTER CLOSURE OF ICTY
TAGS: KAWC PGOV PREL PGOV PREL PGOV PREL HR RVKAWC ICTY HR RV
SUBJECT: DOES THE OTP HAVE A STRATEGY FOR CROATIA?

WANT TO USE ICTY'S LEVERAGE TO PUSH THE GOC TO FIND GOTOVINA,
AND "LEGALISTS," WHO BELIEVE THAT ICTY'S SOLE FUNCTION IS TO
RULE ON COMPLIANCE/NON-COMPLIANCE AND INFORM THE UNSC OF ITS
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PAGE 02 ZAGREB 00305 02 OF 03 120644Z
FINDINGS. (OSORIO LISTED HIMSELF AND CHIEF PROSECUTOR DEL
PONTE AS "ACTIVISTS.") OSORIO SAID THAT THE ICTY ALREADY HAS
RECEIVED A PROTEST NOTE FROM THE RUSSIAN AMBASSADOR IN THE
HAGUE ACCUSING THE TRIBUNAL OF A DOUBLE STANDARD FOLLOWING
DEL PONTE'S SPEECH TO THE UN LAST OCTOBER -- A SPEECH IN
WHICH SHE DECLARED SERBIA TO BE IN NON-COMPLIANCE FOR ITS
FAILURE TO DELIVER RATKO MLADIC, BUT ONLY WARNED CROATIA OVER
ITS FAILURE TO DELIVER GOTOVINA. OSORIO EXPECTS MORE
COMPLAINTS FROM THE RUSSIANS OVER THE OTP'S GOTOVINA GAMBIT;
HE ANTICIPATED THAT THE RUSSIANS WILL INSIST AGAIN THAT ICTY
SHOULD DECLARE CROATIA NON-COMPLIANT. HOWEVER, OSORIO ARGUES
THAT, UNLIKE THE MLADIC CASE, THE OTP NEEDS TO PRESS FOR
VISIBLE ACTION TO DEBUNK THE GOC ARGUMENT THAT GOTOVINA FLED
THE REGION.

WHERE'S THE PROOF?
--------------


7. (C) OTP FRUSTRATION WITH GOC PASSIVITY ON GOTOVINA IS
UNDERSTANDABLE; THE GOC DREADS THE PROSPECT OF HAVING TO
TRANSFER GOTOVINA TO THE HAGUE AND DESPERATELY DOES NOT WANT
THE GENERAL TO BE IN CROATIA. HOWEVER, OUR EXPERIENCE WITH
MUCH OF WHAT WE KNOW OF THE OTP'S "EVIDENCE" ON GOTOVINA IS
THAT IT IS BASED ON CIRCULAR REPORTING AND HEARSAY. WHILE
GOTOVINA VERY WELL MAY BE IN THE REGION, WE HAVE SEEN
NOTHING, ASIDE FROM THE SFOR SIGHTING, TO UNDERPIN THE HARSH
OTP STATEMENT THAT GOTOVINA IS "WALKING FREELY" IN CROATIA
(AND WE HAVE BEEN ASKING OSORIO AND THE CROATIANS FOR
MONTHS). PER REF B, OTP POLITICAL ADVISOR JEAN-JAQUES JORIS
TOLD OUR COLLEAGUES IN THE HAGUE THAT "CROATIAN AND FOREIGN
SOURCES" SUPPORTED THE OTP CLAIM THAT GOTOVINA WAS MOVING
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PAGE 03 ZAGREB 00305 02 OF 03 120644Z
FREELY IN CROATIA. HE SAID THAT THE CROATIAN SOURCE WAS (OR
INCLUDED) PRESIDENT MESIC. HOWEVER, MESIC'S FOREIGN POLICY
ADVISOR TOLD US THAT MESIC BASED HIS STATEMENT ON A CROATIAN
INTELLIGENCE REPORT, WHICH, WE KNOW FOR A FACT, WAS BASED ON
A FALSE SIGHTING OF GOTOVINA IN ZAGREB AND OTHER CIRCULAR
REPORTING. OTHER REPORTED "SIGHTINGS" OF GOTOVINA HAVE
PROVEN TO BE EQUALLY UNSUBSTANTIATED.

DOCUMENT SHARING
--------------


8. (C) OSORIO SAID HE WAS NOT CONSULTED BEFORE HARTMANN
ISSUED HER STATEMENT. IN HIS VIEW CRITICISM OF THE GOC'S
PERFORMANCE ON INFORMATION SHARING WAS OVERSTATED AND THE
GOC, AS A RULE, WAS RESPONSIVE ON DOCUMENT REQUESTS.
ACCORDING TO OSORIO, THERE ARE THREE OUTSTANDING DOCUMENT
DELIVERY PROBLEMS: 1) THE GOC HAS FAILED TO DELIVER BODY
COUNT AND AUTOPSY RESULTS CONDUCTED BY THE CROATIAN MILITARY
AFTER OPERATION STORM; 2) THE GOC HAS NOT MET A DEADLINE TO
PROVIDE DEMOGRAPHIC DATA WHICH ICTY NEEDS TO HELP DEMONSTRATE
YUGOSLAV ETHNIC CLEANSING FOR THE MILOSEVIC TRIAL; AND 3) THE
GOC HAS MISSED A NUMBER OF DEADLINES ON INFORMATION LINKED TO
INVESTIGATIONS OF CROATIAN WAR CRIMES IN BOSNIA. IN THE CASE
OF THE FIRST TWO DOCUMENT SHARING ISSUES, OSORIO TOLD US THAT
THE GOC FAILURE TO DELIVER THE DOCUMENTS WAS A TECHNICAL,
SHORT-TERM HICCUP. IN FACT, IN THE CASE OF THE BODY COUNT
INFORMATION, OSORIO SAID THAT HE HAD OBTAINED A BOOTLEG COPY
FROM THE HEAD OF THE GOC COMMISSION FOR MISSING PERSONS. IN
THE CASE OF THE OUTSTANDING BIH INFORMATION, THE ISSUE COULD
HAVE BEEN HANDLED "THROUGH REGULAR CHANNELS," OSORIO
ASSERTED.
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PAGE 04 ZAGREB 00305 02 OF 03 120644Z


9. (C) ALTHOUGH PROBLEMS EXIST, THERE IS ALSO PROGRESS.
OSORIO CONFIRMED THAT THE GOC GAVE PERMISSION FOR THE OTP AND
THE CROATIAN PROSECUTORS' OFFICE TO BEGIN TO SHARE
INFORMATION DIRECTLY. AN ICTY PROSECUTOR WAS SENT TO ZAGREB
FEBRUARY 5 TO WORK WITH HIS COUNTERPARTS TO SOLIDIFY THE
CROATIAN CASE AGAINST LOWER LEVEL PERPETRATORS IN THE MEDAK
POCKET AND TO SEEK ADDITIONAL INFORMATION TO BOLSTER THE
OTP'S CASE AGAINST GENERAL ADEMI FOR CRIMES COMMITTED IN THE
SAME OPERATION.

BOBETKO: CASE FROZEN
--------------


10. (C) OSORIO CONFIRMED THAT, AFTER REVIEWING THE ICTY
MEDICAL SPECIALISTS' REPORT, CHIEF PROSECUTOR DEL PONTE
RECOMMENDED TO THE PRESIDING JUDGE THAT THE TRIAL OF FORMER
CROATIAN CHIEF OF THE GENERAL STAFF JANKO BOBETKO BE
SUSPENDED BECAUSE OF HIS POOR HEALTH. ICTY WILL SEND ANOTHER
MEDICAL TEAM TO ZAGREB IN THREE TO FOUR MONTHS TO REVIEW
BOBETKO'S HEALTH, BUT BARRING A MIRACULOUS RECOVERY FROM
PROGRESSIVE HEART AND RENAL FAILURE, OTP'S PURSUIT OF THE
HIGHEST RANKING CROATIAN TO BE INDICTED BY ICTY IS AT AND

CONFIDENTIAL

CONFIDENTIAL PTQ7428

PAGE 01 ZAGREB 00305 03 OF 03 120645Z
ACTION SWCI-00

INFO LOG-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 SRPP-00 EUR-00 VC-00 TEDE-00
INR-00 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 NSCE-00 OMB-01
PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 SS-00
TRSE-00 T-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DRL-01 G-00 SAS-00
/003W
-------------- 34D24F 120645Z /20
P 111735Z FEB 03
FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9420
INFO AMEMBASSY BELGRADE PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY MOSCOW PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY SARAJEVO PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 ZAGREB 000305

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR, EUR/SCE, S/WCI
THE HAGUE FOR JOHNSON/KAYE/WHEATON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 1.6X6 5 YEARS AFTER CLOSURE OF ICTY
TAGS: KAWC PGOV PREL PGOV PREL PGOV PREL HR RVKAWC ICTY HR RV
SUBJECT: DOES THE OTP HAVE A STRATEGY FOR CROATIA?

END. OSORIO DID NOT INDICATE THAT THE OTP WOULD CONDUCT A
"LESSONS LEARNED" EXERCISE OVER BOBETKO. HE DID EXPRESS
HOPE, HOWEVER, THAT IN THE AFTERMATH OF THE BOBETKO CRISIS,
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PAGE 02 ZAGREB 00305 03 OF 03 120645Z
ICTY FINALLY WOULD ESTABLISH THE BASIC STANDARDS WHICH WOULD
HELP PROSECUTORS DETERMINE THE FITNESS OF AN INDICTEE TO
STAND TRIAL.


11. (C) WITH BOBETKO OUT OF THE PICTURE, THE OTP IS
STRUGGLING TO MAKE SENSE OF ITS PROSECUTION STRATEGY FOR THE
ENTIRE MEDAK POCKET WAR CRIMES CASE. BOBETKO WAS AT THE TOP
OF THE PYRAMID OF THE MILITARY CHAIN OF COMMAND -- INDICTEE
RAHIM ADEMI WAS THE CHIEF MILITARY OFFICER IN THE FIELD.
GENERAL MIRKO NORAC, WHOSE INDICTMENT WAS DEFERRED AT THE
REQUEST OF THE GOC SO THAT IT COULD TRY A SEPARATE WAR CRIMES
CASE ("GOSPIC") LOCALLY, HEADED THE CROATIAN MILITARY UNIT
PRINCIPALLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ATROCITIES AT MEDAK. WITH
BOBETKO GONE, OSORIO SAID THAT THE OTP WILL HAVE TO REEXAMINE
THE INDICTMENT AGAINST ADEMI AND THE PENDING INDICTMENT
AGAINST NORAC. (OSORIO TOLD US THAT ICTY RECENTLY HAD
DISCUSSED WITH CHIEF PROSECUTOR MLADEN BAJIC THE POSSIBILITY
THAT HE INCLUDE NORAC IN THE LOCAL CROATIAN INDICTMENT OF
LOWER-LEVEL SOLDIERS THAT BAJIC IS PREPARING.)


12. (C) ACCORDING TO OSORIO, MEDAK IS IMPORTANT FOR ICTY, NOT
JUST BECAUSE THE OTP BELIEVES THIS TO BE ONE OF THEIR
STRONGEST CROATIA CASES, BUT BECAUSE IT WILL BE A TEST-BED
FOR ITS EFFORTS TO PROVE THAT THE GOC CONCEPTUALIZED AND
PRE-PLANNED THE 1995 OPERATION STORM AS AN ETHNIC CLEANSING
OPERATION. OSORIO HAS TOLD US THAT THE PROSECUTION BELIEVES
IT HAS EVIDENCE THAT THE SAME ORGANIZED TECHNIQUES TO RAZE
SERB VILLAGES IN MEDAK WERE USED ON A WIDER SCALE AFTER
OPERATION STORM.

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PAGE 03 ZAGREB 00305 03 OF 03 120645Z
COMMENT
--------------


13. (C) THE OTP IS UNDERSTANDABLY FRUSTRATED. THE BOBETKO
CASE, AND YEARS AND YEARS OF WORK, IS SLIPPING AWAY WITHOUT A
DAY IN COURT. JUSTICE IS DENIED AND THE GOC, WHICH EVADED
FOR MONTHS ITS RESPONSIBILITY TO ACT AS ICTY'S AGENT ON THE
CASE, HAS COME OUT THE WINNER. THE BRITISH, WHO WENT OUT ON
A LIMB TO SUPPORT THE OTP ON BOBETKO BY SUSPENDING CROATIA'S
STABILIZATION AND ASSOCIATION AGREEMENT, ARE FURIOUS WITH THE
OTP ABOUT THIS. SO ARE WE. IN THE PROCESS OF BACKING DEL
PONTE, WE DAMAGED OUR RELATIONSHIP WITH DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER
GORAN GRANIC, ONE OF THE GOC'S KEY DECISIONMAKERS. AS A
RESULT OF THE BOBETKO CRISIS, THOSE IN CROATIA -- INCLUDING
THOSE WITHIN THE GOC -- WHO ARGUED THAT CROATIA SHOULD HOLD
FIRM FOR A SOLUTION MORE TO ITS LIKING WERE VINDICATED. THEY
MAY BE EMBOLDENED TO TAKE THE SAME HARD, "WE KNOW BETTER,"
STANCE ON NEW ICTY INDICTMENTS OR ON OTHER THORNY ISSUES SUCH
AS REFUGEE RETURN.


14. (C) THE OTP'S ACTIONS HAVE ENORMOUS CONSEQUENCES FOR
CROATIA, THE REGION AND US. BOBETKO'S REAL AND SERIOUS
MEDICAL AILMENTS WERE WELL KNOWN -- A RESPECTED CROATIAN
HUMAN RIGHTS LEADER TOLD THE AMBASSADOR SHORTLY AFTER BOBETKO
WAS INDICTED THAT "NO ONE WHO KNEW BOBETKO'S MEDICAL
CONDITION WOULD HAVE INDICTED HIM," AND WONDERED WHY DEL
PONTE DECIDED NOT TO DO SO. AS REPORTED REF D, DEL PONTE --
DESPITE GOC REQUESTS AND OTP STAFF INTENT -- PASSED UP AN
OPPORTUNITY TO INTERVIEW THE 83-YEAR OLD GENERAL BEFORE
ISSUING THE INDICTMENT, APPARENTLY FOR NO SOLID REASON.

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PAGE 04 ZAGREB 00305 03 OF 03 120645Z

15. (C) HARTMANN'S UNSUBSTANTIATED STATEMENT, THE OTP'S LACK
OF CONSULTATION WITH ITS OWN REPRESENTATIVE ON THE GROUND,
AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A "STRATEGY" WITHOUT PRIOR DISCUSSION
WITH THE ICTY'S INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY SUPPORTERS SUGGESTS
THAT THE OTP WILL STUMBLE AGAIN, THIS TIME ON THE GOTOVINA
CASE. THE OTP MUST DO BETTER. AS A FIRST STEP, WE SHOULD
DEMAND THAT THE OTP PRESENT TO US ITS EVIDENCE THAT GOTOVINA
IS "FREELY MOVING" IN CROATIA. AS THINGS STAND, WE ARE
SKEPTICAL OTP HAS EVIDENCE -- WE SHOULD DEMAND TO KNOW. IF
IT DOES HAVE EVIDENCE AND IT IS CREDIBLE, WE SHOULD INSIST
THAT THE OTP CONSULT WITH US AND THE BRITISH ABOUT ITS
"STRATEGY" FOR PRESSING THE GOC TO ACT. THE QUESTION IS NOT
WHETHER WE SHOULD PRESS THE GOC ON WAR CRIMES AND ICTY
COOPERATION, BUT HOW TO ORCHESTRATE THAT PRESSURE TO THE BEST
EFFECT. OTHERWISE, WE RISK GOING OUT ON A LIMB AGAIN FOR DEL
PONTE ONLY TO HAVE IT BREAK UNDER US.
ROSSIN

CONFIDENTIAL

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