MESIC'S POLITICAL ADVISOR OPTIMISTIC ABOUT SANADER

C O N F I D E N T I A L ZAGREB 002581

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/08/2013
TAGS: PGOV HR
SUBJECT: MESIC'S POLITICAL ADVISOR OPTIMISTIC ABOUT SANADER

Classified By: Nicholas Hill, Political-Economic Counselor, for reasons
1.5 (b) and (d).

Summary
--------------


1. (C) President Mesic is satisfied that relations with the
incoming government led by HDZ should go smoothly. That is
what his top domestical political advisor, Igor Dekanic, told
us in his office on December 5. He said that HDZ President
Ivo Sanader should get the formal nod from the president on
December 9 and the parliament could be convened before
Christmas. President Mesic intends to give the new
government the benefit of the doubt, and is counting on it to
continue to carry out a largely pro-reform agenda. With a
slim margin in the Parliament, the government may not last
its full four-year mandate, but should be around through
presidential voting in early 2005. On issues of concern to
the U.S., Dekanic predicted that a decision to send troops to
Iraq was doable and, now that there is a UN resolution in
place, President Mesic should be on board. By contrast, with
the votes not adding up in parliament, he indicated that the
new government would have a very difficult time getting an
Article 98 agreement approved in the Sabor. End summary.

Smooth Sailing Ahead?
--------------


2. (C) President Mesic's top domestic political advisor,
Igor Dekanic, was more positive than we expected in our first
meeting since the elections swept out PM Racan's reform
coalition. He said that President Mesic understood well the
wish of Croatian voters and fully intended to make the best
of the new circumstances and try to work well with an HDZ-led
government. Mesic, whose relations with Racan have always
been rocky, even quipped that he was a "founding member" of
HDZ -- which is true, before he quit in 1993 -- and
recognized that the party had gone through reforms in recent
years. "In every joke there is some truth," Dekanic told us.
He added that the Office of the President has even received
private assurances that relations with the incoming
government would be much better than they were under Racan.
Dekanic indicated that the HDZ may even join Mesic's
traditional allies in the current Racan government to support
Mesic openly for President when as everybody expects he runs
again in early 2005. Alternatively, Dekanic added
implausibly, HDZ could offer up a weak candidate of its own,
assuring Mesic's victory.

Coalition Jockeying
--------------


3. (C) Dekanic described Sanader's coalition jockeying
pretty much as it has been described in the press, with a
concerted effort on the HDZ leader's part to look responsible
and reform-minded. Dekanic said Sanader took to heart what
the European ambassadors said after the elections about the
right-wing Croatian Party of Rights (HSP),and will do
everything to avoid bringing the party into any coalition --
certainly initially. Early in an HDZ government's mandate,
Sanader should enjoy a fairly comfortable margin in the
parliament, Dekanic predicted. The new government could
count on the support of the Peasants Party (HSS) and even the
Serbian representatives elected on the minority list,
although neither party will be part of the HDZ-led coalition.
Dekanic confirmed that HSS leader Tomcic is having serious
trouble inside his own party, which made it impossible to
join any HDZ government. He added that the three new Serbian
representatives in parliament were demanding a lot for their
support -- but some of this, he suggested, may be political
posturing that will settle down. He held out at least a
small possibility that the Serbian SDSS representatives could
eventually be persuaded to join the government.

Troops to Iraq/Article 98
--------------


4. (C) We asked Dekanic to predict if the new parliament
would be able to deliver a vote to deploy troops to Iraq and
approve an Article 98 agreement. He said that troops to Iraq
looked likely to pass if Sanader wanted it -- although, given
the two-thirds majority required, nothing was certain.
Dekanic indicated that there were probably enough votes in
the opposition to cross the hurdle and, now with a UN
Security Council resolution in place, he noted that President
Mesic would also be supportive.


5. (C) On Article 98, Dekanic was much more cautious.
President Mesic continues to object on principle. There is
no certainty that even if the new Prime Minister pushes hard
for it, Sanader would be able to secure the necessary
two-thirds support in parliament. He would need to recruit
many unlikely partners in the Parliament -- including the far
right HSP, which having been spurned by Sanader in coalition
negotiations, is unlikely to play a helpful role on this sort

of issue.

Comment
--------------


6. (C) President Mesic's constitutional authority is quite
limited, so he is probably wise -- and being politically
expedient -- to give the new government the benefit of the
doubt. Like many others in Croatia, the President is
satisfied with what Sanader is saying and hopes that the new
Prime Minister will be able to deliver on a reform agenda.
For his part, Sanader sees Mesic as an important ally.
Dekanic correctly pointed out that the Croatian President has
enormous credibility in the West and his seal of approval
will be important in coming months as Sanader sets out to
keep progress toward the EU and NATO on course.


7. (C) The pay off for Mesic will be what HDZ does when
Mesic runs for reelection in early 2005. Dekanic predicted
that Mesic may run with support from all mainstream quarters
-- that is, with the HDZ-led coalition and the previous
SDP-led coalition. Mesic, the longest of long shots at the
start of the last presidential election in 2000, would look
like a juggernaut the second time around. But a year is a
long time in Croatian politics, and a lot can change,
particularly given a parliament that is so evenly split.


FRANK


NNNN