Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
03ZAGREB2565
2003-12-05 14:24:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Zagreb
Cable title:  

SANADER'S HDZ STILL COBBLING TOGETHER COALITION;

Tags:  PGOV HR 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L ZAGREB 002565 

SIPDIS


DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SCE (KABUMOTO)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/05/2013
TAGS: PGOV HR
SUBJECT: SANADER'S HDZ STILL COBBLING TOGETHER COALITION;
MINORITY GOVERNMENT LIKELY

Classified By: Poloff A.F.Godfrey for reasons 1.5 (b,d)

Summary
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L ZAGREB 002565

SIPDIS


DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SCE (KABUMOTO)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/05/2013
TAGS: PGOV HR
SUBJECT: SANADER'S HDZ STILL COBBLING TOGETHER COALITION;
MINORITY GOVERNMENT LIKELY

Classified By: Poloff A.F.Godfrey for reasons 1.5 (b,d)

Summary
--------------


1. (C) Nearly two weeks after his party scored a resounding
win in Croatia's November 23 parliamentary election, HDZ
President Ivo Sanader is still rounding up votes to pass a
vote of confidence in the new parliament. Sanader will
certainly be Croatia's next Prime Minister, but it is taking
him a bit longer than he expected to get the eleven
additional votes his HDZ needs for a majority. The HDZ may
in fact begin its term with a minority government; Sanader
already has enough pledges of "yea" votes from parties which
do not intend to enter his coalition. In a meeting with the
Ambassador on December 3, Sanader said he would meet with
President Mesic on December 8 and expected to be named
"PM-Designate" shortly thereafter. Election results were
made "official" on December 5; the first session of the
parliament must take place within 20 days. A new HDZ-led
government could be in place before Christmas. End Summary.

HDZ Headed for Minority Government?
--------------


2. (C) Euphoria from the HDZ's big win on November 23 faded
quickly as Sanader has had to work hard to secure commitments
from new members of the Sabor to secure the 77-seat majority
needed to pass a vote of confidence in Croatia's new
parliament. So far, Sanader has obtained the signatures of
ten MP's (a mixture of small parties, minority
representatives and three votes from the Croatian Party of
Pensioners - HSU) to add to the 66 HDZ seats he already
controls. While no other MP-elect has officially signed up,
Sanader has more than enough informal pledges of support for
his proposed government to pass an initial vote of confidence
in the parliament.

HSS Decides Against Coalition with HDZ
--------------


3. (C) Sanader's hopes of a comfortable majority were dashed
on December 2, when the Croatian Peasants' Party (HSS) turned
down an offer to enter a coalition with the HDZ.
Nevertheless, HSS President Zlatko Tomcic agreed to vote to
support Sanader's proposed government, which will give the
HDZ enough votes to pass a vote of confidence with a few to
spare. HSS leaders told us they were under heavy pressure
from conservative European political leaders to enter

coalition with HDZ, but resistance from within the HSS to
joining with their former political opponents threatened
party stability. Had the HSS decided to enter government
with the HDZ, it would almost certainly mean the ouster of
the eight HSS governors who owe their seats to deals with the
HDZ's political opponents. Despite his party's poor
performance in the election, HSS party president Tomcic is
trying to have his cake and eat it too: his deal with Sanader
reportedly lets HSS appointees keep their political patronage
jobs while his decision to remain out of the HDZ government
might let HSS governors remain in their chairs.

EU Ambassadors Insist That HSP Stay Out of Government
-------------- --------------


4. (C) Sanader lost the option to form a coalition with the
extreme right-wing Croatian Party of Rights (HSP) when on
December 1 the Italian Ambassador to Croatia -- after a
November 27 meeting of all European Union Ambassadors in
Zagreb -- announced that the HSP was "unacceptable" to the EU
and that a government including the HSP would impede
Croatia's progress toward EU membership. In a December 3
meeting with the Ambassador, Sanader said that he had never
really considered a coalition with the HSP, but was peeved by
the EU Ambassadors' "inappropriate" interference in Croatia's
internal political affairs.

Sanader Still Searching For The 77th Vote
--------------


5. (C) Sanader told the Ambassador that he still hoped to
get at least one more signature. Negotiations with Furio
Radin, the representative of Croatia's Italian minority are
still open, Sanader said, and the HDZ still hopes to come to
some agreement with the three Members-elect representing
Serbs. All of Croatia's political elite know that Radin
holds Sanader's all-important 77th seat and the pressure is
on from Sanader's political opponents in Istria (where most
of Croatia's ethnic Italians live) to keep Radin out of the
Government. Press reports indicate that Radin will be on the
fence: like the HSS, he will vote confidence in the Sanader
government, but will not sign on the dotted line.


Election Results Final, Parliament Must Sit By Christmas
-------------- --------------


6. (C) The results from the Novemmber 23 election become
"official" on December 5, two days after they were announced
by Croatia's State Electoral Commission. Croatia's
constitution requires the first session of the new parliament
be convened within 20 days of "completion of the electoral
process," which means it will be gaveled open before December

25.

Sanader Expects Designation From Mesic
--------------


7. (C) Sanader told the Ambassador that he expects to meet
formally with President Mesic on December 8 and be named
PM-Designate soon after, possibly as early as December 9.
There is no requirement that the government pass its vote of
confidence in the Sabor's first meeting and Sanader may
choose to wait until early January.

Ambassador Lays Down Markers With Sanader
--------------


8. (C) The Ambassador took the opportunity of his one-on-one
meeting with Sanader on December 3 to lay down markers about
how best to show the international community -- and Croatia's
voters -- that an HDZ government will keep Croatia moving
forward on the road toward integration in Euro-Atlantic
Institutions. Sanader seemed to take the advice seriously,
writing down plenty of notes. On economics, the Ambassador
urged Sanader to make a clear statement supporting the
independence of the Central Bank and to engage in some
substantive dialogue with the IMF. On relations with ICTY,
the Ambassador said there is no room for compromise and urged
Sanader to ensure his party's policy of full cooperation
remains clear. On refugee returns, he said the international
community welcomed Sanader's campaign statements, but would
make its judgments based on policy implementation. The
Ambassador told Sanader that the Defense Ministry has made
good progress toward NATO goals in the past two years,
particularly on depoliticization of the armed forces and on
launching the difficult process of downsizing. The
Ambassador expressed hope that the next defense minister
would not reverse these trends.


9. (C) The Ambassador said that the USG took the HDZ's
campaign pledge to sign an Article 98 Agreement as a
commitment. We did not welcome reports that Miomir Zuzul,
Sanader's likely appointee to be Croatia's next foreign
minister, may have been walking back that commitment during
recent meetings in Washington.


10. (C) Sanader thanked the Ambassador, and while he
resisted making predictions about the makeup of his proposed
government, he rejected press speculation that either of the
former Defense Ministers now in the HDZ parliamentary caucus,
Luka Bebic or Andrije Hebrang, would be named as Croatia's
next defense minister. (Note: Both Bebic and Hebrang have
made statements suggesting they would reward political
loyalty within the uniformed services. End Note.) Sanader
welcomed the Ambassador's proposal to continue to meet
regularly as plans for the next Croatian government take
shape.
FRANK


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