Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
03ZAGREB2490
2003-11-25 13:49:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Zagreb
Cable title:  

ETHNIC SERBS VOTE FOR MODERATES

Tags:  PGOV PHUM HR 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L ZAGREB 002490 

SIPDIS


DEPT FOR EUR/SCE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/24/2013
TAGS: PGOV PHUM HR
SUBJECT: ETHNIC SERBS VOTE FOR MODERATES

REF: A. ZAGREB 2463


B. ZAGREB 2365

Classified By: POLOff Mitch benedict for reasons 1.5 (b) and (d)

Summary
--------

C O N F I D E N T I A L ZAGREB 002490

SIPDIS


DEPT FOR EUR/SCE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/24/2013
TAGS: PGOV PHUM HR
SUBJECT: ETHNIC SERBS VOTE FOR MODERATES

REF: A. ZAGREB 2463


B. ZAGREB 2365

Classified By: POLOff Mitch benedict for reasons 1.5 (b) and (d)

Summary
--------------


1. (U) With the official vote count still days away, moderate
Serbs from the Independent Democratic Serbian Party (SDSS)
are almost certain to fill the three designated ethnic Serb
seats in the next Parliament. Milan Djukic, the
confrontational former representative of ethnic Serbs in
Parliament, lost narrowly to a relatively unknown newcomer on
the national scene, and will not return to Parliament.
Ethnic Serbs appear to have decided that extremist politics
have not been successful, and the SDSS will face high
expectations that they can solve intractable and long-term
problems faced by the Serbian community. End Summary.

A Clean Sweep by the SDSS
--------------


2. (U) One of the surprises to come out of the November 23
Parliamentary elections is that the Independent Democratic
Serbian Party (SDSS) appears to have captured all three of
the guaranteed seats for the Serbian minority in the next
parliament. With results in from all but six of 6,504
polling stations (99.9 percent),the SDSS's candidates placed
first, second, and third on the minority list. Vojislav
Stanimirovic, the party President, was first with 24,361
votes (22.16 percent) and Milorad Pupovac, vice president of
SDSS, came in second with 23,541 votes (21.41 percent). The
biggest upset of all was Ratko Gajica, the SDSS's third
candidate and a relative unknown outside of Knin, who beat
Milan Djukic, President of the Serbian National Party, by
approximately 700 votes. In the last Parliamentary election
in January 2000, Djukic beat Pupovac by 3,000 votes and was
the minority Serbian representative in the 2000-2003
parliament, which had only one guaranteed minority seat
reserved for Serbs.

A Political Newcomer
--------------


3. (U) Gajica, whose birthday was election day, started the
campaign as a relative unknown outside of Knin. A lawyer by
training, he is an SDSS representative in the Sibenik-Knin
County Assembly, and the President of the Sibenik-Knin
Serbian National Minority Council. His prominence among
Serbs in the Knin region may partly be due to the fact he
stayed in Knin during and after Croatian forces recaptured

the town in Operation "Storm" in 1995. He maintained a
private law practice, and has consistently provided pro bono
legal assistance to ethnic Serbs. Though never mentioned by
name directly, in campaign appearances Gajica contrasted his
calm and reasoned style, and ability to work successfully
within the system, with that of Djukic. Stanimirovic and
Pupovac both worked to provide Gajica with maximum exposure
among the electorate. The three candidates appeared together
at almost all campaign functions across Croatia, and Gajica
was featured in press releases and campaign propaganda
distributed in Serbia and Montenegro.

Djukic Ousted
--------------


4. (C) Djukic, on the other hand, appears to have antagonized
just about everyone. An OSCE observer termed his performance
on the campaign trail "atrocious." He campaigned almost
exclusively on his home turf of Donji Lapac and Donji Srb.
However, his rallies were poorly attended -- at times only a
handful of people turned out. Bombastic and exclusionary,
Djukic's style is to make an extreme statement that will draw
a reaction from a high-level Government official, often
ensuring prominent press coverage. Few if any legislative
accomplishments could be credited to Djukic; he even voted
against the dual vote for ethnic minorities (Ref B),a
position seemingly at odds with a large majority of ethnic
Serbs. Drazen Djakula, the President of the non-partisan
Serb Democratic Forum (SDF),told us after the election that
Djukic's ouster from parliament indicates minorities
recognize that extremist positions are not productive in
terms of advancing minority interests. Djukic might get
headlines, but ethnic Serbs appear to agree that he did not
deserve to get their vote.

Comment
--------------


5. (C) The SDSS will enter Parliament with a strong mandate
from ethnic Serbs, and they are going to be under tremendous
pressure to produce. Time is running out (hostilities ended
eight years ago, and Eastern Slavonia was reincorporated into
Croatia six years ago),and expectations are going to be high
for the SDSS to achieve concrete results on immediate issues,
such as property and tenancy/occupancy rights, and on
long-term and more systemic problems, such as employment and
job creation. The SDSS was elected both on name recognition
-- Stanimirovic due to his role with Erdut processes in
Eastern Slavonia, Pupovac as a former Member of Parliament
(1995-1999) and Zagreb-based activist, and Gajica in Knin --
as well as for successfully conveying the message that they
can work within parliament to produce meaningful results.
The day after elections they reached out to the other five
minority representatives, and they plan to meet soon to
discuss what role they can play in promoting their issues in
the next government's mandate.
FRANK


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