ELECTIONS: OUT ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ZAGREB 002409

SIPDIS


DEPARTMENT FOR DRL AND EUR/SCE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/14/2013
TAGS: PGOV PHUM HR
SUBJECT: ELECTIONS: OUT ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL


CLASSIFIED BY: POLOFF A.F.GODFREY FOR REASONS 1.5 (B,D)

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) THE NOVEMBER 23 DATE FOR CROATIA'S PARLIAMENTARY
ELECTION HAS BEEN COMMON KNOWLEDGE FOR MONTHS, BUT THE LAUNCH
OF THE "OFFICIAL" CAMPAIGN STILL SEEMS TO HAVE CAUGHT PM
RACAN'S SDP FLAT-FOOTED. THE RIGHT-WING HDZ HAS A
WELL-FUNDED, WELL-ORGANIZED (IF SOMEWHAT INTIMIDATING)
CAMPAIGN MACHINE OPERATING AT FULL SPEED THROUGHOUT CROATIA.
OUTSIDE OF THE CAPITAL AND A FEW OTHER STRONGHOLDS, HOWEVER,
SDP LEADERS SEEM TO BE AT A LOSS ABOUT HOW TO GET STARTED.
ALL OF CROATIA IS AWASH WITH CAMPAIGN ADVERTISING AND THE
AIRWAVES ARE SATURATED WITH SLICK (AND SOME NOT SO SLICK) TV
AND RADIO SPOTS. RELIABLE POLLING IS HARD TO COME BY IN
CROATIA. BASED ON WHAT WE HAVE SEEN ON THE GROUND, UNLESS
MOMENTUM SHIFTS, THE HDZ'S IVO SANADER SEEMS POISED TO WIN
ENOUGH SEATS TO FORM A COALITION GOVERNMENT WITH LITTLE HELP
FROM OTHER NATIONALIST-LEANING PARTIES. END SUMMARY.

JUST TEN DAYS TO GO!
--------------


2. (C) CROATIA'S OFFICIAL CAMPAIGN FOR PARLIAMENTARY
ELECTIONS BEGAN ON NOVEMBER 5, WHEN THE NAMES OF LITERALLY
THOUSANDS OF CANDIDATES COMPETING FOR ABOUT 160 SEATS IN THE
CROATIAN PARLIAMENT WERE PUBLISHED. WITH JUST TEN DAYS LEFT
BEFORE THE POLLS OPEN, ALL POLITICAL PARTIES AND INDEPENDENT
CANDIDATES ARE RUNNING FLAT-OUT. ALMOST A THIRD OF CROATIA'S
POPULATION IS WITHIN EASY REACH OF THE CENTER OF ZAGREB. BUT
BECAUSE OF ITS ODD SHAPE AND ITS DIFFICULT TERRAIN, IT TAKES
SOME EFFORT TO REACH THE REST OF CROATIA'S VOTERS. LIKE SOME
OF THE CANDIDATES, EMBASSY OFFICERS HAVE BEEN TRAVELING TO
CROATIA'S HINTERLANDS TO TAKE THE PULSE OF THE CAMPAIGN AS IT
REACHES ITS PEAK. DESPITE THE DISTINCT DIFFERENCES IN
CROATIA'S REGIONS, THE STORY SEEMS TO BE THE SAME: THE HDZ
MACHINE IS IN HIGH GEAR, AND RACAN'S SDP IS ONLY JUST GETTING
STARTED.

HDZ EXPRESS ROLLS IN DALMATIA
--------------


3. (C) MOMENTUM IS SQUARELY WITH HDZ PRESIDENT SANADER AS HE
ROLLS THROUGH THE CROATIAN HINTERLANDS, PREPARING FOR A GRAND
FINISH IN ZAGREB. CRUISING ON HIS BIG BLUE BUS FROM RALLY TO
RALLY THROUGH THE HDZ STRONGHOLD OF DALMATIA, SANADER SEEMED
AT THE TOP OF HIS GAME. IN A TACTIC WHICH REMINDS MOST OF
OUR INTERLOCUTORS OF THE TUDJMAN AND EVEN THE TITO DAYS, ALL
OF THE HDZ CAMPAIGN IS FOCUSED AROUND THE IMAGE AND NAME OF
IVO SANADER AS THE "BIG MAN" WHO WILL "GET CROATIA MOVING."
HDZ'S RALLIES ARE WELL-ATTENDED, WELL-ORGANIZED AND CLEARLY
WELL FUNDED. ALWAYS IN ATTENDANCE, HOWEVER, ARE A LARGE
NUMBER OF ROUGH-LOOKING YOUNG MEN SHOULDERING THEIR WAY
INTIMIDATINGLY THROUGH THE CROWD.

HDZ PARTY DISCIPLINE
--------------


4. (C) VISITS TO HDZ HEADQUARTERS IN THE FIELD MAKE A STRONG
IMPRESSION; ABUZZ WITH ENERGY, WELL-SUPPLIED WITH STACKS OF
NEW CAMPAIGN MATERIALS, DISTRICT-LEVEL OFFICIALS ARE CAREFUL
TO STAY ON MESSAGE. ONE CANDIDATE IN EASTERN CROATIA TOLD US
THAT ALL CANDIDATES RECEIVED STRICT INSTRUCTIONS TO KEEP
SPEECHES TO LESS THAN THREE MINUTES AND MAKE ONLY THOSE
POINTS APPROVED BY CENTRAL HEADQUARTERS. THEY KEPT TO THESE
INSTRUCTIONS; WHEN WE ASKED WHY A FEW TUDJMAN-ERA HARDLINERS
WERE KEPT ON THE HDZ CANDIDATE LISTS, LOCAL-LEVEL PARTY
LEADERS IN DIFFERENT CITIES USED ALMOST IDENTICAL LANGUAGE TO
DEFEND THE UNEVEN PACE OF REFORM IN THE PARTY.

HDZ ATTACKS HSS -- NO POST-ELECTION COALITION AFTER ALL?
-------------- --------------


5. (C) IN PUBLIC APPEARANCES, SANADER'S SCATHING ATTACKS ON
THE CURRENT GOVERNMENT HAVE EXPANDED FROM CRITICISM OF THE
CORRUPT "COMMUNIST TRAITORS" (AS HE CALLS RACAN'S SDP) TO
INCLUDE THE HSS. IN HIS STUMP SPEECH, SANADER NOW ACCUSES
HSS PRESIDENT TOMCIC OF AGREEING TO SUPPORT THE GOVERNMENT
BAILOUT OF A BANKRUPT SHIPYARD IN THE SDP STRONGHOLD OF
RIJEKA IN RETURN FOR A DEAL WHICH BENEFITED A COMPANY IN
WHICH HE OWNS SHARES. UNTIL RECENTLY, MANY OBSERVERS HAD
SPECULATED THAT THE HSS WOULD DESERT RACAN TO FORM A BROAD
RIGHT-WING COALITION WITH THE HDZ AFTER ELECTIONS. SANADER'S
MOTIVES FOR TAKING ON THE HSS ARE NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR; THIS
NEW RHETORIC MIGHT MAKE SUCH A DEAL DIFFICULT FOR TOMCIC, BUT
POLITICS HAS MADE STRANGER BEDFELLOWS THAN THIS.

SDP DISCOURAGED, DISORGANIZED
--------------


6. (C) SANADER'S HIGH-ENERGY TACTICS CLEARLY HAVE RACAN'S
SDP ON THE ROPES, BUT THE SDP RANK AND FILE BLAME RACAN, NOT

ZAGREB 00002409 001.2 OF 002

BER 23 DATE FOR CROATIA'S PARLIAMENTARY
ELECTION HAS BEEN COMMON KNOWLEDGE FOR MONTHS, BUT THE LAUNCH
OF THE "OFFICIAL" CAMPAIGN STILL SEEMS TO HAVE CAUGHT PM
RACAN'S SDP FLAT-FOOTED. THE RIGHT-WING HDZ HAS A
WELL-FUNDED, WELL-ORGANIZED (IF SOMEWHAT INTIMIDATING)
CAMPAIGN MACHINE OPERATING AT FULL SPEED THROUGHOUT CROATIA.
OUTSIDE OF THE CAPITAL AND A FEW OTHER STRONGHOLDS, HOWEVER,
SDP LEADERS SEEM TO BE AT A LOSS ABOUT HOW TO GET STARTED.
ALL OF CROATIA IS AWASH WITH CAMPAIGN ADVERTISING AND THE
AIRWAVES ARE SATURATED WITH SLICK (AND SOME NOT SO SLICK) TV
AND RADIO SPOTS. RELIABLE POLLING IS HARD TO COME BY IN
CROATIA. BASED ON WHAT WE HAVE SEEN ON THE GROUND, UNLESS
MOMENTUM SHIFTS, THE HDZ'S IVO SANADER SEEMS POISED TO WIN
ENOUGH SEATS TO FORM A COALITION GOVERNMENT WITH LITTLE HELP
FROM OTHER NATIONALIST-LEANING PARTIES. END SUMMARY.

JUST TEN DAYS TO GO!
--------------


2. (C) CROATIA'S OFFICIAL CAMPAIGN FOR PARLIAMENTARY
ELECTIONS BEGAN ON NOVEMBER 5, WHEN THE NAMES OF LITERALLY
THOUSANDS OF CANDIDATES COMPETING FOR ABOUT 160 SEATS IN THE
CROATIAN PARLIAMENT WERE PUBLISHED. WITH JUST TEN DAYS LEFT
BEFORE THE POLLS OPEN, ALL POLITICAL PARTIES AND INDEPENDENT
CANDIDATES ARE RUNNING FLAT-OUT. ALMOST A THIRD OF CROATIA'S
POPULATION IS WITHIN EASY REACH OF THE CENTER OF ZAGREB. BUT
BECAUSE OF ITS ODD SHAPE AND ITS DIFFICULT TERRAIN, IT TAKES
SOME EFFORT TO REACH THE REST OF CROATIA'S VOTERS. LIKE SOME
OF THE CANDIDATES, EMBASSY OFFICERS HAVE BEEN TRAVELING TO
CROATIA'S HINTERLANDS TO TAKE THE PULSE OF THE CAMPAIGN AS IT
REACHES ITS PEAK. DESPITE THE DISTINCT DIFFERENCES IN
CROATIA'S REGIONS, THE STORY SEEMS TO BE THE SAME: THE HDZ
MACHINE IS IN HIGH GEAR, AND RACAN'S SDP IS ONLY JUST GETTING
STARTED.

HDZ EXPRESS ROLLS IN DALMATIA
--------------


3. (C) MOMENTUM IS SQUARELY WITH HDZ PRESIDENT SANADER AS HE
ROLLS THROUGH THE CROATIAN HINTERLANDS, PREPARING FOR A GRAND
FINISH IN ZAGREB. CRUISING ON HIS BIG BLUE BUS FROM RALLY TO
RALLY THROUGH THE HDZ STRONGHOLD OF DALMATIA, SANADER SEEMED
AT THE TOP OF HIS GAME. IN A TACTIC WHICH REMINDS MOST OF
OUR INTERLOCUTORS OF THE TUDJMAN AND EVEN THE TITO DAYS, ALL
OF THE HDZ CAMPAIGN IS FOCUSED AROUND THE IMAGE AND NAME OF
IVO SANADER AS THE "BIG MAN" WHO WILL "GET CROATIA MOVING."
HDZ'S RALLIES ARE WELL-ATTENDED, WELL-ORGANIZED AND CLEARLY
WELL FUNDED. ALWAYS IN ATTENDANCE, HOWEVER, ARE A LARGE
NUMBER OF ROUGH-LOOKING YOUNG MEN SHOULDERING THEIR WAY
INTIMIDATINGLY THROUGH THE CROWD.

HDZ PARTY DISCIPLINE
--------------


4. (C) VISITS TO HDZ HEADQUARTERS IN THE FIELD MAKE A STRONG
IMPRESSION; ABUZZ WITH ENERGY, WELL-SUPPLIED WITH STACKS OF
NEW CAMPAIGN MATERIALS, DISTRICT-LEVEL OFFICIALS ARE CAREFUL
TO STAY ON MESSAGE. ONE CANDIDATE IN EASTERN CROATIA TOLD US
THAT ALL CANDIDATES RECEIVED STRICT INSTRUCTIONS TO KEEP
SPEECHES TO LESS THAN THREE MINUTES AND MAKE ONLY THOSE
POINTS APPROVED BY CENTRAL HEADQUARTERS. THEY KEPT TO THESE
INSTRUCTIONS; WHEN WE ASKED WHY A FEW TUDJMAN-ERA HARDLINERS
WERE KEPT ON THE HDZ CANDIDATE LISTS, LOCAL-LEVEL PARTY
LEADERS IN DIFFERENT CITIES USED ALMOST IDENTICAL LANGUAGE TO
DEFEND THE UNEVEN PACE OF REFORM IN THE PARTY.

HDZ ATTACKS HSS -- NO POST-ELECTION COALITION AFTER ALL?
-------------- --------------


5. (C) IN PUBLIC APPEARANCES, SANADER'S SCATHING ATTACKS ON
THE CURRENT GOVERNMENT HAVE EXPANDED FROM CRITICISM OF THE
CORRUPT "COMMUNIST TRAITORS" (AS HE CALLS RACAN'S SDP) TO
INCLUDE THE HSS. IN HIS STUMP SPEECH, SANADER NOW ACCUSES
HSS PRESIDENT TOMCIC OF AGREEING TO SUPPORT THE GOVERNMENT
BAILOUT OF A BANKRUPT SHIPYARD IN THE SDP STRONGHOLD OF
RIJEKA IN RETURN FOR A DEAL WHICH BENEFITED A COMPANY IN
WHICH HE OWNS SHARES. UNTIL RECENTLY, MANY OBSERVERS HAD
SPECULATED THAT THE HSS WOULD DESERT RACAN TO FORM A BROAD
RIGHT-WING COALITION WITH THE HDZ AFTER ELECTIONS. SANADER'S
MOTIVES FOR TAKING ON THE HSS ARE NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR; THIS
NEW RHETORIC MIGHT MAKE SUCH A DEAL DIFFICULT FOR TOMCIC, BUT
POLITICS HAS MADE STRANGER BEDFELLOWS THAN THIS.

SDP DISCOURAGED, DISORGANIZED
--------------


6. (C) SANADER'S HIGH-ENERGY TACTICS CLEARLY HAVE RACAN'S
SDP ON THE ROPES, BUT THE SDP RANK AND FILE BLAME RACAN, NOT




ZAGREB 00002409 002.1 OF 002

RECEIVED THEIR
SUPPLIES OF CAMPAIGN MATERIALS EVEN THOUGH THE ELECTION IS
LESS THAN TWO WEEKS AWAY.


7. ALTHOUGH HE IS VIEWED AS A CARPETBAGGER FROM RIJEKA,
DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER LINIC HEADS THE SDP LIST IN SPLIT,
WHERE HE WILL RUN HEAD-TO-HEAD WITH SANADER AND HSLS
PRESIDENT DRAZEN BUDISA. POLLS SUGGEST THE SDP WILL BE LUCKY
TO GET A THIRD OF THE 14 SEATS IN THIS CONSERVATIVE DISTRICT.
WE MET AT LENGTH WITH LINIC IN THE RUN-DOWN SDP SPLIT
CAMPAIGN HEADQUARTERS. LINIC ADMITTED THAT INSTEAD OF GOING
OUT TO FIRE UP NEW POTENTIAL VOTERS, HE HAS HAD TO SPEND TIME
EXPLAINING THE RACAN GOVERNMENT'S REFORM POLICY CHOICES TO
HIS CORE PARTY MEMBERSHIP. ORGANIZED LABOR -- THE NATURAL
CONSTITUENCY OF THE SOCIAL DEMOCRATS -- IS BITTER ABOUT
RECENT REFORMS OF LABOR LEGISLATION AIMED AT IMPROVING THE
FLEXIBILITY OF CROATIA'S LABOR MARKET, AND CROATIA'S UNIONS
HAVE REFUSED TO OFFER AN ENDORSEMENT TO ANY POLITICAL PARTY.
NEVERTHELESS, LINIC WAS NOT WITHOUT SOME HOPE; HE BELIEVED
THAT CROATIA'S UNDECIDED VOTERS WOULD REMEMBER THE ECONOMIC
DISASTER WHICH THE RACAN GOVERNMENT INHERITED FROM THE HDZ.
OTHER SDP LEADERS SPECULATED THAT CROATIA'S VOTERS HAVE "HAD
ENOUGH OF TUDJMAN" AND HOPED THAT THE HDZ CAMPAIGN FOCUS ON
SANADER ALONE WOULD BE COUNTERPRODUCTIVE.


8. (C) IN ISTRIA, IDS VICE PRESIDENT DAMIR KAJIN TOLD US
THAT HIS PARTY'S LOCAL-LEVEL COALITION WITH THE SDP WILL
DELIVER STRONG RESULTS IN THE 8TH DISTRICT, BUT WOULD MAKE NO
PREDICTIONS ABOUT WHETHER RACAN'S COALITION WOULD SUCCEED AT
THE NATIONAL LEVEL. KAJIN MADE A POINT OF TELLING US THAT IF
IDS IS IN GOVERNMENT, IT WOULD VOTE TO SUPPORT A GOVERNMENT
PROPOSAL TO DEPLOY CROATIAN TROOPS TO IRAQ. IF SANADER WINS,
THE IDS -- AND OTHER PARTIES -- WOULD VOTE AGAINST
DEPLOYMENT, WHICH MEANS AN HDZ GOVERNMENT WOULD LIKELY NOT BE
ABLE TO DELIVER THE TWO-THIRDS MAJORITY NEEDED TO DEPLOY.

HSS RUNNING HARD
--------------


9. (C) OTHER THAN THE HDZ AND SDP, WE EXPECT THREE OTHER
PARTIES, THE HSS, THE HNS AND HSP, TO WIN SEATS IN DISTRICTS
ACROSS CROATIA. OF THESE, THE HSS IS RUNNING THE MOST
EFFECTIVE CAMPAIGN. HSS PARTY LEADERS HAVE TURNED AROUND THE
IMAGE OF CROATIA'S PEASANT PARTY AND HAVE A MODERN,
WELL-PLANNED CAMPAIGN RUNNING ALL ACROSS CROATIA WHICH
APPEALS TO YOUNGER VOTERS AS WELL AS TO ITS OLDER
CONSERVATIVE CORE. WHILE THE HSS'S ANNOUNCEMENTS THAT AFTER
ELECTIONS IT WILL OPPOSE OTHER PARTIES' "WILD NEO-LIBERAL
ECONOMIC POLICY" (TRANSLATION: CONTINUED PROGRESS ON
PRIVATIZATION) STRIKE MOST OBSERVERS AS CRAZY, THE POPULIST
MESSAGE SEEMS TO APPEAL TO VOTERS. THE LAST RELIABLE POLL
PREDICTED THE HSS WOULD TAKE MORE THAN 11 PERCENT OF THE
POPULAR VOTE.


10. (C) THE CENTER-LEFT HNS STILL HOPES TO DO WELL IN THE
VOTING, BUT HAS SCALED BACK OPTIMISTIC PREDICTIONS OF EARLIER
THIS SUMMER, WHEN IT PROJECTED IT WOULD WIN AT LEAST 15
SEATS. THE HNS APPEALS MAINLY TO YOUNGER, URBAN VOTERS; HNS
OFFICIALS BEMOAN THE FACT THAT THESE ARE CROATIA'S LEAST
MOTIVATED AND MOST FICKLE VOTERS; BAD WEATHER ON NOVEMBER 23
COULD KEEP HNS VOTERS INSIDE. A LOW TURNOUT WOULD HELP THE
ULTRA-NATIONALIST HSP HOLD ON TO THE FOUR SEATS IT HAD IN THE
LAST PARLIAMENT.


11. (C) OTHER FRINGE PARTIES MAY WIN A SEAT OR TWO, BUT THE
PROLIFERATION OF INDEPENDENT CANDIDATE LISTS IS HARDER TO
EXPLAIN. IN EACH OF CROATIA'S TEN GEOGRAPHIC ELECTORAL
DISTRICTS, THE 14 SEATS IN THE NEXT SABOR WILL PROBABLY BE
DIVIDED BETWEEN UP TO FIVE PARTIES. BUT IN ONE DISTRICT
ALONE THERE ARE 40 SEPARATE LISTS OF CANDIDATES. ONE LIST IS
HEADED BY A SHADY FORMER ARMS DEALER, ANOTHER BY AN
IDEALISTIC WEALTHY CROATIAN-AMERICAN, BUT NEITHER HAS A
SNOWBALL'S CHANCE OF LANDING IN THE NEXT PARLIAMENT.


12. (U) OSCE/CROATIAN HELSINKI COMMITTEE MEDIA MONITORS
CONTINUE TO ASSERT THAT BOTH PUBLIC AND PRIVATE MEDIA ARE
DOING A GOOD JOB OF COVERING THE CAMPAIGN FAIRLY.
FRANK

ZAGREB 00002409 002.2 OF 002

D RECEIVED THEIR
SUPPLIES OF CAMPAIGN MATERIALS EVEN THOUGH THE ELECTION IS
LESS THAN TWO WEEKS AWAY.


7. (C) ALTHOUGH HE IS VIEWED AS A CARPETBAGGER FROM RIJEKA,
DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER LINIC HEADS THE SDP LIST IN SPLIT,
WHERE HE WILL RUN HEAD-TO-HEAD WITH SANADER AND HSLS
PRESIDENT DRAZEN BUDISA. POLLS SUGGEST THE SDP WILL BE LUCKY
TO GET A THIRD OF THE 14 SEATS IN THIS CONSERVATIVE DISTRICT.
WE MET AT LENGTH WITH LINIC IN THE RUN-DOWN SDP SPLIT
CAMPAIGN HEADQUARTERS. LINIC ADMITTED THAT INSTEAD OF GOING
OUT TO FIRE UP NEW POTENTIAL VOTERS, HE HAS HAD TO SPEND TIME
EXPLAINING THE RACAN GOVERNMENT'S REFORM POLICY CHOICES TO
HIS CORE PARTY MEMBERSHIP. ORGANIZED LABOR -- THE NATURAL
CONSTITUENCY OF THE SOCIAL DEMOCRATS -- IS BITTER ABOUT
RECENT REFORMS OF LABOR LEGISLATION AIMED AT IMPROVING THE
FLEXIBILITY OF CROATIA'S LABOR MARKET, AND CROATIA'S UNIONS
HAVE REFUSED TO OFFER AN ENDORSEMENT TO ANY POLITICAL PARTY.
NEVERTHELESS, LINIC WAS NOT WITHOUT SOME HOPE; HE BELIEVED
THAT CROATIA'S UNDECIDED VOTERS WOULD REMEMBER THE ECONOMIC
DISASTER WHICH THE RACAN GOVERNMENT INHERITED FROM THE HDZ.
OTHER SDP LEADERS SPECULATED THAT CROATIA'S VOTERS HAVE "HAD
ENOUGH OF TUDJMAN" AND HOPED THAT THE HDZ CAMPAIGN FOCUS ON
SANADER ALONE WOULD BE COUNTERPRODUCTIVE.


8. (C) IN ISTRIA, IDS VICE PRESIDENT DAMIR KAJIN TOLD US
THAT HIS PARTY'S LOCAL-LEVEL COALITION WITH THE SDP WILL
DELIVER STRONG RESULTS IN THE 8TH DISTRICT, BUT WOULD MAKE NO
PREDICTIONS ABOUT WHETHER RACAN'S COALITION WOULD SUCCEED AT
THE NATIONAL LEVEL. KAJIN MADE A POINT OF TELLING US THAT IF
IDS IS IN GOVERNMENT, IT WOULD VOTE TO SUPPORT A GOVERNMENT
PROPOSAL TO DEPLOY CROATIAN TROOPS TO IRAQ. IF SANADER WINS,
THE IDS -- AND OTHER PARTIES -- WOULD VOTE AGAINST
DEPLOYMENT, WHICH MEANS AN HDZ GOVERNMENT WOULD LIKELY NOT BE
ABLE TO DELIVER THE TWO-THIRDS MAJORITY NEEDED TO DEPLOY.

HSS RUNNING HARD
--------------


9. (C) OTHER THAN THE HDZ AND SDP, WE EXPECT THREE OTHER
PARTIES, THE HSS, THE HNS AND HSP, TO WIN SEATS IN DISTRICTS
ACROSS CROATIA. OF THESE, THE HSS IS RUNNING THE MOST
EFFECTIVE CAMPAIGN. HSS PARTY LEADERS HAVE TURNED AROUND THE
IMAGE OF CROATIA'S PEASANT PARTY AND HAVE A MODERN,
WELL-PLANNED CAMPAIGN RUNNING ALL ACROSS CROATIA WHICH
APPEALS TO YOUNGER VOTERS AS WELL AS TO ITS OLDER
CONSERVATIVE CORE. WHILE THE HSS'S ANNOUNCEMENTS THAT AFTER
ELECTIONS IT WILL OPPOSE OTHER PARTIES' "WILD NEO-LIBERAL
ECONOMIC POLICY" (TRANSLATION: CONTINUED PROGRESS ON
PRIVATIZATION) STRIKE MOST OBSERVERS AS CRAZY, THE POPULIST
MESSAGE SEEMS TO APPEAL TO VOTERS. THE LAST RELIABLE POLL
PREDICTED THE HSS WOULD TAKE MORE THAN 11 PERCENT OF THE
POPULAR VOTE.


10. (C) THE CENTER-LEFT HNS STILL HOPES TO DO WELL IN THE
VOTING, BUT HAS SCALED BACK OPTIMISTIC PREDICTIONS OF EARLIER
THIS SUMMER, WHEN IT PROJECTED IT WOULD WIN AT LEAST 15
SEATS. THE HNS APPEALS MAINLY TO YOUNGER, URBAN VOTERS; HNS
OFFICIALS BEMOAN THE FACT THAT THESE ARE CROATIA'S LEAST
MOTIVATED AND MOST FICKLE VOTERS; BAD WEATHER ON NOVEMBER 23
COULD KEEP HNS VOTERS INSIDE. A LOW TURNOUT WOULD HELP THE
ULTRA-NATIONALIST HSP HOLD ON TO THE FOUR SEATS IT HAD IN THE
LAST PARLIAMENT.


11. (C) OTHER FRINGE PARTIES MAY WIN A SEAT OR TWO, BUT THE
PROLIFERATION OF INDEPENDENT CANDIDATE LISTS IS HARDER TO
EXPLAIN. IN EACH OF CROATIA'S TEN GEOGRAPHIC ELECTORAL
DISTRICTS, THE 14 SEATS IN THE NEXT SABOR WILL PROBABLY BE
DIVIDED BETWEEN UP TO FIVE PARTIES. BUT IN ONE DISTRICT
ALONE THERE ARE 40 SEPARATE LISTS OF CANDIDATES. ONE LIST IS
HEADED BY A SHADY FORMER ARMS DEALER, ANOTHER BY AN
IDEALISTIC WEALTHY CROATIAN-AMERICAN, BUT NEITHER HAS A
SNOWBALL'S CHANCE OF LANDING IN THE NEXT PARLIAMENT.


12. (U) OSCE/CROATIAN HELSINKI COMMITTEE MEDIA MONITORS
CONTINUE TO ASSERT THAT BOTH PUBLIC AND PRIVATE MEDIA ARE
DOING A GOOD JOB OF COVERING THE CAMPAIGN FAIRLY.
FRANK

NNNN