NEW UN SECURITY COUNCIL RESOLUTION ON IRAQ WOULD

C O N F I D E N T I A L ZAGREB 001968

SIPDIS


DEPARTMENT FOR IO/UNP, PMAT AND PM/RSAT

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/09/2013
TAGS: MARR MOPS PREL HR
SUBJECT: NEW UN SECURITY COUNCIL RESOLUTION ON IRAQ WOULD
EASE POLITICAL COST FOR GOC OF DEPLOYMENT TO IRAQ

REF: A. STATE 256573

B. ZAGREB 1364

CLASSIFIED BY: POLOFF A.F.GODFREY FOR REASONS 1.5 (B,D)

SUMMARY
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1. (C) PASSAGE OF A NEW UNSCR AUTHORIZING A UN-MANDATED
MULTINATIONAL FORCE UNDER UNIFIED U.S. COMMAND WOULD MAKE THE
GOC'S TASK OF SECURING PARLIAMENTARY APPROVAL TO DEPLOY A
CROATIAN CONTINGENT OF TROOPS TO IRAQ MUCH EASIER.
DEPLOYMENT TO IRAQ REMAINS POLITICALLY SENSITIVE. WITH
ELECTIONS EXPECTED IN NOVEMBER, THE GOC WOULD WELCOME THE
POLITICAL COVER OF A NEW UN MANDATE. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) ON JUNE 12, CROATIA'S GOVERNMENT MADE A POLITICAL
COMMITMENT TO DEPLOY A MILITARY CONTINGENT TO IRAQ (REF B),
BUT PM RACAN'S CABINET HAS NOT YET SUBMITTED A FORMAL
DECISION TO THE PARLIAMENT FOR RATIFICATION. A CROATIAN
LIAISON OFFICER ARRIVED AT CENTCOM ON SEPTEMBER 3 TO GATHER
DETAILS THE PARLIAMENT WILL REQUIRE TO APPROVE DEPLOYMENT.
DEPLOYMENT OF FORCES TO IRAQ REMAINS VERY POLITICALLY
SENSITIVE. PUBLIC OPINION AGAINST DEPLOYMENT OF A CROATIAN
CONTINGENT REMAINS HIGH, ALTHOUGH CROATIA'S POLITICAL LEADERS
UNDERSTAND THAT MAKING A CONTRIBUTION TO COLLECTIVE SECURITY
IS EXPECTED OF COUNTRIES WHICH ASPIRE TO NATO MEMBERSHIP.


3. (C) SPEEDY PASSAGE OF A NEW UNSCR AUTHORIZING A
UN-MANDATED MULTINATIONAL FORCE UNDER UNIFIED U.S. COMMAND
WOULD MAKE THE GOC'S POLITICAL TASK MUCH EASIER. (IN A
SEPTEMBER 9 DISCUSSION ON OTHER ISSUES, DEPUTY FOREIGN
MINISTER IVAN SIMONOVIC RAISED THE ISSUE OF CROATIA'S
POTENTIAL CONTRIBUTION TO THE COALITION, AND MADE PRECISELY
THIS POINT TO THE DCM.) PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS ARE EXPECTED
IN NOVEMBER OF THIS YEAR, AND LEADING COALITION POLITICIANS
WOULD WELCOME THE ADDITIONAL POLITICAL COVER A NEW RESOLUTION
WOULD PROVIDE. THE GOC MAY CHOOSE TO WAIT UNTIL THE NEW
UNSCR IS PASSED BEFORE FORWARDING ITS FORMAL DECISION ON
DEPLOYMENT FOR PARLIAMENTARY RATIFICATION. CROATIA'S
PARLIAMENT IS EXPECTED TO DISSOLVE ITSELF IN MID-OCTOBER TO
PREPARE FOR ELECTIONS, SO A PROLONGED DEBATE OVER THE
RESOLUTION COULD MEAN THAT CROATIAN TROOPS WOULD NOT BE
AUTHORIZED TO JOIN THE STABILIZATION FORCE BEFORE EARLY 2004.
WITH CROATIA'S EU APPLICATION NOW UNDER CONSIDERATION, THE
GOC WOULD AVOID TAKING ANY STEP TO WHICH THEY BELIEVE KEY EU
MEMBER STATES MIGHT OBJECT.


4. (C) WE HAVE REACHED A POINT IN OUR EFFORTS TO LOBBY
CROATIAN POLITICIANS WHERE WE ARE CONFIDENT THAT THE CURRENT
PARLIAMENT WILL APPROVE A GOC DECISION TO DEPLOY FORCES TO
IRAQ. HOWEVER, IF THE RACAN CABINET CHOOSES TO DELAY
FORWARDING A FORMAL DECISION TO THE LEGISLATURE PENDING THE
OUTCOME OF DEBATE IN THE UNSC, THE CURRENT PARLIAMENT MAY NOT
GET A CHANCE TO VOTE.
FRANK

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