KEEPING THE HDZ AT ARM'S LENGTH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ZAGREB 001230

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/30/2013
TAGS: PGOV PREF PHUM PREF PHUM HR HRPGOV
SUBJECT: KEEPING THE HDZ AT ARM'S LENGTH

REF: ZAGREB 519

CLASSIFIED BY: POLOFF A.F.GODFREY FOR REASONS 1.5 (B,D)

SUMMARY
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1. (C) THE USG WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD THE HDZ AT ARM'S LENGTH
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UNTIL IT HAS DEMONSTRATED -- IN ACTIONS, NOT JUST WORDS --
THAT IT WILL SUPPORT POLICIES WHICH ADVANCE OUR STRATEGY FOR
ACHIEVING STABILITY IN THE REGION. THAT WAS THE MESSAGE THE
AMBASSADOR DELIVERED TO HDZ PRESIDENT IVO SANADER OVER LUNCH
ON MAY 27. THE HDZ CONTINUES TO TAKE A POSITIVE LINE ON SOME
TOUGH BILATERAL ISSUES WHERE THE CURRENT GOVERNMENT HAS NOT
(LIKE IRAQ AND THE ICC),BUT HAS MADE NO PROGRESS TOWARD
BENCHMARKS SET BY THE AMBASSADOR ON ICTY COOPERATION, REFUGEE
RETURNS AND INTERNAL PARTY REFORMS. SANADER SAID HE IS
"DEEPLY CONVINCED" OF THE VITAL ROLE OF THE U.S. AS THE
GUARANTOR OF SECURITY IN EUROPE AND PLEDGED THAT STRONG TIES
WITH THE U.S. WILL BE A TOP PRIORITY SHOULD THE HDZ RETURN TO
GOVERNMENT AFTER PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS. HE CLAIMED THAT
UNTIL THE NEXT PARLIAMENT IS SEATED, HE HAS LITTLE FREEDOM TO
ACT ON SOME POLITICALLY SENSITIVE ISSUES, BUT PROMISED THAT
AN HDZ GOVERNMENT (IF ELECTED) WOULD PRODUCE BETTER RESULTS
ON THESE ISSUES THAN THE CURRENT COALITION. END SUMMARY.

FOLLOW-UP TO FEBRUARY MEETING
--------------


2. (C) ON MAY 27, THE AMBASSADOR MET WITH HDZ PRESIDENT IVO
SANADER OVER LUNCH TO FOLLOW UP THEIR INITIAL MEETING ON
FEBRUARY 21 (REFTEL). WITH SANADER WAS MIOMIR ZUZUL,
FORMERLY CROATIA'S AMBASSADOR TO THE U.S., WHO PARTICIPATED
ACTIVELY IN THE DISCUSSION. AT THEIR FIRST MEETING, SANADER
HAD EXPRESSED KEEN INTEREST IN DEVELOPING CLOSER TIES WITH
THE EMBASSY WITH A VIEW TOWARD SHOWING CROATIAN VOTERS -- AND
POTENTIAL COALITION PARTNERS -- THAT THE HDZ "REFORMS" HAVE
BEEN RECOGNIZED BY THE USG. AT THAT SAME MEETING, THE
AMBASSADOR HAD SET OUT A SERIES OF SPECIFIC ACTIONS THE HDZ
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NEEDED TO TAKE ON ISSUES RELATING TO REGIONAL SECURITY IN
ORDER TO GET THE U.S. VALIDATION THEY SO AVIDLY SOUGHT.

HDZ'S SOLID SUPPORT ON IRAQ, ARTICLE 98
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3. (C) THE AMBASSADOR TOLD SANADER THAT THE USG RECOGNIZES
THE STRONG SUPPORT THE HDZ HAS GIVEN TO THE U.S. ON TOUGH
BILATERAL ISSUES, ESPECIALLY ON IRAQ AND MORE RECENTLY IN
CALLING FOR CROATIAN TO SIGN AN ARTICLE 98 AGREEMENT WITH THE
U.S. SANADER SAID HE IS "DEEPLY CONVINCED" THAT THE
TRANSATLANTIC RELATIONSHIP IS ESSENTIAL TO EUROPEAN SECURITY.
HE REGRETS THE CURRENT COALITION'S ACTIONS WHICH HAVE
DAMAGED THE RELATIONSHIP. THE HDZ RECOGNIZES THAT CROATIA'S
FUTURE IS IN EUROPE, BUT THERE SHOULD BE A MORE APPROPRIATE
BALANCE, RECOGNIZING THE ROLE OF THE USG. IN AN HDZ
GOVERNMENT, RELATIONS WITH THE U.S. WILL BE A HIGHER
PRIORITY, SANADER DECLARED. HE REJECTED THE ANALYSIS BY MANY
IN THE MEDIA THAT HE HAS TAKEN PRO-U.S. POSITIONS ONLY TO GET
OUR APPROVAL FOR THE REFORMS HE IS CARRYING OUT. THE
EUROPEAN PEOPLE'S PARTY GAVE THE HDZ THE ONLY "SEAL OF
APPROVAL" IT NEEDED WHEN IT VOTED TO GRANT THE HDZ OBSERVER
STATUS IN THE EPP.

AMBASSADOR: NOT ENOUGH PROGRESS ON KEY ISSUES
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4. (C) THE AMBASSADOR TOOK NOTE OF THE CHANGES IN THE HDZ IN
THE PAST THREE YEARS; WITHOUT THEM EVEN THE RECENT LIMITED
ENGAGEMENT WITH SANADER WOULD NOT HAVE BEEN POSSIBLE. BUT
THE AMBASSADOR UNDERSCORED THAT THERE HAD BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT
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PROGRESS TOWARD THE BENCHMARKS SET DURING THEIR FIRST
MEETING. THE AMBASSADOR REITERATED THE STEPS THE HDZ NEEDS
TO TAKE BEFORE THE U.S. CAN CONSIDER ENGAGING THE PARTY AS A
SERIOUS PARTNER.

- INTERNAL REFORMS

PARTY "REFORM" MUST MOVE BEYOND POLITICAL HOUSECLEANING.
LJUBO CESIC-ROJS, AN OUTRAGEOUS NATIONALIST FIGURE WHO
CONTINUES TO ACTIVELY DISRUPT INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY EFFORTS
TOWARD ACHIEVING REGIONAL STABILITY, REMAINS IN THE PARTY,
EVEN THOUGH SANADER HAD TOLD THE AMBASSADOR IN FEBRUARY THAT
HE WAS ON THE WAY OUT. BRANIMIR GLAVAS, THE OSIJEK WARLORD
SUSPECTED OF INVOLVEMENT IN SEVERAL WAR CRIMES, CONTINUES TO
HOLD A POSITION OF SERIOUS RESPONSIBILITY IN THE HDZ.

- ICTY COOPERATION

THIS IS NOT A NEGOTIABLE ISSUE. WE LOOK FOR A PUBLIC
DECLARATION THAT THE HDZ WILL NOT SEEK TO CHANGE THE ICTY
COOPERATION LAW IF IT GETS INTO GOVERNMENT, AND THAT THE HDZ
WILL ABIDE BY THE LAW, PROMPTLY SERVE INDICTMENTS AND MAKE A
GOOD-FAITH EFFORT TO FIND ICTY INDICTEES.

- REFUGEE RETURN

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CONFIDENTIAL PTQ4130

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ACTION EUR-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 CIAE-00 INL-00 DODE-00 PERC-00
SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 FBIE-00 VC-00 TEDE-00 INR-00
IO-00 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 NSCE-00 OIC-02
OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00
SCT-00 SP-00 IRM-00 STR-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 PMB-00
DSCC-00 PRM-00 DRL-01 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 SWCI-00
/006W
-------------- 6CF374 300953Z /38
P 300933Z MAY 03
FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0359
INFO EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 ZAGREB 001230

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/30/2013
TAGS: PGOV PREF PHUM PREF PHUM HR HRPGOV
SUBJECT: KEEPING THE HDZ AT ARM'S LENGTH

AS IN FEBRUARY, THE AMBASSADOR TOLD SANADER THAT HE NEEDS TO
MAKE HIS PARTY POLICY ON THIS ISSUE CLEAR AND THEN PUBLICLY
CALL FOR HDZ MEMBERS IN RESPONSIBLE POSITIONS TO FOLLOW THIS
POLICY. SOME LOCAL-LEVEL HDZ LEADERS ARE ACTIVELY
OBSTRUCTING RETURN. SANADER HASN'T TAKEN THIS ISSUE UP. WE
WOULD NEED TO SEE A CLEAR AND PUBLIC STATEMENT ON THIS ISSUE
NOW.
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PAGE 02 ZAGREB 01230 02 OF 02 300953Z

SANADER: "MY HANDS ARE TIED"
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5. (C) AS HE DID IN FEBRUARY, SANADER EXPLAINED THAT HE IS A
"HOSTAGE TO THE PARTY CAUCUS" IN THE PARLIAMENT, ALL OF WHOM
WERE SELECTED BEFORE HE WAS ELECTED AS HDZ PRESIDENT AND MANY
OF WHOM RESIST HIS EFFORTS TO TRANSFORM THE HDZ INTO A
MAINSTREAM CENTER-RIGHT PARTY. HE NOW SEEKS CHANGES TO THE
HDZ BY-LAWS WHICH WILL TRANSFER RESPONSIBILITY FOR
DETERMINING WHO WILL BE ON PARTY CANDIDATE LISTS FROM THE
100-MEMBER HDZ "EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE" TO THE 13-MEMBER PARTY
PRESIDENCY, OVER WHICH HE HAS FIRM CONTROL. IF HE SUCCEEDS
IN MAKING THIS CHANGE AT THE JUNE 21 PARTY CONGRESS, HE PLANS
TO MAKE SWEEPING CHANGES TO THE MEMBERSHIP OF THE PARTY
CAUCUS, WITH MORE THAN 80 PERCENT "NEW BLOOD" IN THE NEXT
PARLIAMENT.


6. (C) ON CESIC-ROJS, SANADER AGREED THAT IT IS TIME FOR
ROJS TO GO, AND PROMISED HE WOULD BE OUT AFTER THE JUNE HDZ
PARTY CONGRESS. HE GAVE NO GROUND ON GLAVAS, INSISTING THAT
AS FAR AS HE IS CONCERNED GLAVAS' ONLY PROBLEM IS ONE OF
IMAGE; HE HAS NO INFORMATION WHICH HE CONSIDERS CREDIBLE
IMPLICATING GLAVAS OF ANY WRONGDOING. HE ADMITTED, HOWEVER,
THAT GLAVAS' AGGRESSIVE APPROACH IS A LIABILITY FOR THE HDZ.
SANADER POINTED OUT THAT IF THE CHANGES TO PARTY BY-LAWS HE
SEEKS ARE APPROVED, THE ROLE OF THE PARTY EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE
-- OF WHICH GLAVAS IS A MEMBER -- WILL BE REDUCED.


7. (C) ON TAKING A PUBLIC, PROACTIVE STANCE ON ISSUES
RELATING TO ICTY COOPERATION AND REFUGEE RETURN, SANADER SAID
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THAT UNTIL HE HAS A CHANCE TO CHANGE THE MAKEUP OF HIS
PARLIAMENTARY DELEGATION, HIS HANDS WILL BE TIED. THE HDZ
HAS, SANADER ARGUED, TAKEN THE LEAD ON SOME PROGRESSIVE
POLICIES. THE GOVERNMENT'S EFFORT TO PASS A NEW
CONSTITUTIONAL LAW ON NATIONAL MINORITIES (CLNM) WAS
FOUNDERING IN BITTER ARGUMENTS WITH ETHNIC MINORITY LEADERS
UNTIL THE HDZ -- SANADER PERSONALLY -- STEPPED IN TO BROKER A
COMPROMISE. NOW, CROATIA'S CLNM IS BROADLY PRAISED BY THE
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY. REMOVING RIVAL IVIC PASALIC FROM A
POSITION OF POWER DID MORE THAN JUST CLEAN HOUSE IN THE HDZ,
SANADER CONTINUED; IT ALSO REMOVED A SOURCE OF INAPPROPRIATE
INFLUENCE OVER THE INTELLIGENCE SERVICES, PAVING THE WAY FOR
THEIR REFORM.


8. (C) SANADER MADE A STRONG PITCH FOR THE EMBASSY TO BEGIN
TREATING THE HDZ AS IT DOES OTHER CROATIAN POLITICAL PARTIES,
INCLUDING ALLOWING IT TO PARTICIPATE IN ONGOING USAID
ASSISTANCE PROGRAMS AIMED AT BUILDING POLITICAL PARTY
CAPACITY. THE AMBASSADOR DID NOT APOLOGIZE FOR SETTING A
HIGH BAR FOR THE HDZ TO CLEAR, HIGHER THAN OTHER PARTIES,
BEFORE HE WOULD CONSIDER RECOMMENDING THAT THE USG ENGAGE
MORE CLOSELY WITH SANADER'S PARTY. THE HDZ WAS DIRECTLY
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DESTABILIZING AND COUNTERPRODUCTIVE
POLICIES OF THE PREVIOUS GOVERNMENT AND WOULD HAVE TO DO MORE
THAN DISCUSS POLICY CHANGES IN PRIVATE, THE AMBASSADOR
EXPLAINED. SANADER SAID HE UNDERSTOOD, REPEATED HIS
COMMITMENT TO IMPROVING THE BILATERAL RELATIONSHIP, AND
DECLARED THAT AN HDZ GOVERNMENT WOULD BE MORE EFFICIENT AND
WOULD PUT MORE EMPHASIS ON CROATIA'S PROGRESS TOWARD NATO
MEMBERSHIP. THE AMBASSADOR TOLD SANADER THAT THE USG WOULD
RECOGNIZE REAL HDZ REFORM WHENEVER IT CAME -- BEFORE OR AFTER
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ELECTIONS -- AND RESPOND ACCORDINGLY, BUT NOT UNTIL THAT
REFORM WAS VISIBLE AND CLEAR.

COMMENT
--------------


9. (C) AS HE DID IN FEBRUARY, SANADER STRUCK US AS
PERSONALLY GENUINE. DESPITE HIS ASSURANCES ABOUT HIS
EAGERNESS TO IMPROVE HIS PARTY'S STANDING WITH THE U.S., WE
DO NOT EXPECT HE WILL MEET THE BENCHMARKS WE SET, AT LEAST
NOT BEFORE THE NEXT PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION. WE EXPECT
SANADER WILL BE ABLE TO ACHIEVE THE CHANGES TO PARTY BY-LAWS
HE OUTLINED TO US DURING THE NEXT PARTY CONVENTION, BUT WE
RECOGNIZE THEM FOR WHAT THEY ARE: POLITICAL HOUSECLEANING,
NOT DEMOCRATIC REFORM OF THE PARTY. ONCE HE HAS ALL THE
REINS IN HIS OWN HANDS, SANADER WILL NO LONGER HAVE ANY
EXCUSES FOR NOT DELIVERING. UNTIL THE HDZ DEMONSTRATES --
WITH ACTIONS, NOT JUST PRIVATE STATEMENTS -- THAT IT IS A
DEMOCRATIC PARTY READY TO WORK FOR STABILITY IN THE REGION,
WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO HOLD IT AT ARM'S LENGTH.
ROSSIN

CONFIDENTIAL

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