ARMENIA: ONLY CONCERN IS GEORGIA'S STABILITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 002806

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/CACEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/24/13
TAGS: PREL AM GG
SUBJECT: ARMENIA: ONLY CONCERN IS GEORGIA'S STABILITY



1. (U) Classified by Ambassador John Ordway. Reasons:
1.5 (B)&(D).


2. (C) Summary. Following the resignation of Georgian
President Shevardnadze, the Armenian leadership and
government officials have maintained an official line
that the stability of their neighbor is Armenia's
paramount concern. Government officials have
indicated that they are prepared to work with whomever
emerges as the political leader of Georgia. The GOAM
worries that continued post-election turmoil and a
prolonged political crisis in Georgia could have a
substantial negative impact on Armenia's economy. End
summary.


3. (SBU) In public statements throughout the day, the
Armenian leadership has focused on the urgent need to
restore order and stability in Georgia following the
resignation of President Shevardnadze. In a statement
released November 24, President Kocharian called for
the "the quick establishment of order and stability in
Georgia," and stated he looked forward to developing a
"good personal relationship" with the new leaders of
the country. According to wire reports, National
Assembly Speaker Artur Baghdasarian spoke by telephone
with Georgia's Interim President Nino Burjanadze and
expressed hope that law and order would soon be
established in Georgia. Foreign Minister Vardan
Oskanian held a press conference in which he focused
on the need to maintain stability throughout the
region.


4. (SBU) The Ministry of Foreign Affairs Head of the
Georgia Desk, Ara Baldayan, informed us that Armenia
was only interested in the quick imposition of order
in Georgia and that the GOAM was prepared to work with
whomever ultimately assumed the leadership of the
country. Baldayan declined to respond to questions
regarding what contacts have been made between the
GOAM and the new Georgian leadership, except to say
that the GOAM will remain in contact with the
"legitimate authorities."


5. (C) Deputy Foreign Minister Tatul Margarian
stressed the importance of Georgia's stability to
Armenia during the Strategic Dialogue discussions held
November 20, before Shevardnadze's resignation.
Margarian commented that a continued deterioration of
the situation in Georgia could only adversely affect
Armenia's economic growth and consequently the GOAM
was currently more interested in "stability in Georgia
than within our own borders." Margarian said that the
GOAM would work with whomever emerged in power in
Tblisi, and that "perhaps it is time for change in
Georgia." Margarian held out hope for an "elite
resolution," which would preferably limit the power of
Ajarian leader Aslan Abashidze.


6. (SBU) There has been no significant interruption
in Armenia's vital trade links through Georgia.
According to the Chief Border Guard at the Bagratashen
border with Georgia, the primary entry point for all
goods coming to Armenia, freight traffic between the
two countries is keeping to schedule. After a brief
interruption in shipments over the weekend, both
trucks and trains have resumed their normal schedules.
Reports from private exporting and importing companies
confirm that deliveries are leaving and arriving on
time.


7. (C) Comment. The stability of Georgia is indeed of
prime importance to the GOAM. Official government
figures indicate that 80 percent of all Armenian trade
transited through Georgia in 2002, and the Georgian
ports of Poti and Batumi provide Armenia's sole access
to European markets. Georgia also provides the land
routes connecting Armenia with Russia, its largest
trading partner. The GOAM fears any further
destabilization of Georgia, whether through a
breakdown in central government authority or efforts
by regional separatists to take advantage of the
ongoing political crisis. The cautious public tone
taken by the GOAM underscores the government's desire
not to contribute in any way to the exacerbation of
tensions in Georgia particularly given substantial
adverse effects on Armenia. While the public appears
to share this concern, there is already a lot of
private discussion of the potential impact on
Armenia's own domestic political life. While Armenia
is likely to remain stable and calm, the longer-term
impact could be significant-- and will certainly be a
major factor in the thinking of both President
Kocharian and opposition leaders as they continue to
jockey for political advantage. End comment.

ORDWAY