SADDAM MEETING WITH CARDINAL ETCHEGARAY: VATICAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 VATICAN 000683

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR, EUR/WE-MENNUTI, NEA, S-KELLY AND GRAZE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/19/2013
TAGS: PREL MOPS PHUM MOPS PHUM MOPS PHUM VT VTPREL VTPREL
SUBJECT: SADDAM MEETING WITH CARDINAL ETCHEGARAY: VATICAN
SEES "LAST CHANCE FOR DIPLOMACY"

REF: A) VATICAN 641

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PAGE 02 VATICA 00683 01 OF 03 200658Z

CLASSIFIED BY: AMBASSADOR JIM NICHOLSON, REASON E.O. 12958 1.5 (B,D)

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SUMMARY AND ACTION REQUEST
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1. (C) THE HOLY SEE'S MIDDLE EAST DIRECTOR, MONSIGNOR FRANCO
COPPOLA, WHO ACCOMPANIED PAPAL SPECIAL ENVOY CARDINAL ROGER
ETCHEGARAY TO BAGHDAD, GAVE DCM A FULL READOUT FEBRUARY 19 OF
ETCHEGARAY'S VISIT AND FEBRUARY 15 MEETING WITH SADDAM
HUSSEIN. ACCORDING TO COPPOLA, THE PAPAL MISSION TO BAGHDAD
WAS UNDERTAKEN BOTH TO REINFORCE WITH SADDAM THE SERIOUSNESS
OF HIS SITUATION AND HIS NEED TO MOVE QUICKLY TO COOPERATE
FULLY WITH UNMOVIC, WHILE ALSO SEEKING TO "CREATE A SENSE OF
TRUST" WITH SADDAM THAT THE HOLY SEE BELIEVES COULD HELP THE
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY ACHIEVE ITS GOAL OF IRAQI DISARMAMENT
WITHOUT RECOURSE TO WAR. ON THE BASIS OF THE VISIT, THE HOLY
SEE BELIEVES THAT FIRM, BUT NON-CONFRONTATIONAL, DIPLOMACY
THAT AVOIDS "HUMILIATING" SADDAM CAN ACHIEVE IRAQ'S
DISARMAMENT WITHOUT RESORT TO A WAR THAT THEY FEAR WOULD
INFLAME FUNDAMENTALIST ISLAM WITH "INCALCULABLE
CONSEQUENCES." COPPOLA VOICED THE HOLY SEE'S CONCERN AT HOW
RECENT TRANSATLANTIC DIVISIONS AND A PERCEPTION OF DIVISION
BETWEEN THE HOLY SEE AND THE U.S. HAVE PLAYED OUT IN THE
PRESS. THEY RECOGNIZE THAT THE PROGRESS ACHIEVED THUS FAR
WITH IRAQ IS A DIRECT RESULT OF THE CREDIBLE THREAT OF FORCE
AND INTERNATIONAL UNITY, AND THEY WORRY THAT PERCEPTIONS OF
DIVISION WILL UNDERMINE THE PRESSURE ON SADDAM. WITH PM
BLAIR SET TO MEET THE POPE FEBRUARY 22, EMBASSY BELIEVES A
HIGH-LEVEL U.S. VISIT TO THE HOLY SEE COULD HELP REINFORCE
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PAGE 03 VATICA 00683 01 OF 03 200658Z
THE PERCEPTION OF UNITY AND HIGHLIGHT THE SHARED U.S.-HOLY
SEE DESIRE TO ACHIEVE A PEACEFUL DISARMAMENT OF IRAQ. (SEE
ALSO PARA 9 ACTION REQUEST.) END SUMMARY.

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ETCHEGARAY DELIVERS POPE'S MESSAGE TO SADDAM
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2. (C) HOLY SEE MFA MIDDLE EAST DIRECTOR MONS. FRANCO
COPPOLA GAVE DCM AND POLOFF A DETAILED READOUT FEBRUARY 19 OF
HIS WEEK-LONG TRIP TO BAGHDAD WITH PAPAL SPECIAL ENVOY
CARDINAL ROGER ETCHEGARAY. COPPOLA TOLD US THE TRIP WAS
UNDERTAKEN TO IMPRESS UPON SADDAM THE SERIOUSNESS OF THE
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY AND TO URGE HIS FULL AND IMMEDIATE
COOPERATION WITH UNSCR 1441. COPPOLA EMPHASIZED THAT THE
HOLY SEE BELIEVES SADDAM HAS THUS FAR BEEN TOO PRONE TO
PREVARICATION AND DECEPTION, AND THAT THE TRIP WAS SEEN BY
THE VATICAN AS ITS LAST BEST CHANCE TO TALK SOME SENSE INTO
SADDAM AND AVERT A WAR. RECOGNIZING THE "DICTATOR'S
MENTALITY" THEY WOULD ENCOUNTER IN DELIVERING SUCH A MESSAGE,
ETCHEGARAY SOUGHT NOT TO CHALLENGE SADDAM DIRECTLY, BUT TO
GIVE HIM A SENSE THAT, BY WORKING WITH THE INTERNATIONAL
COMMUNITY TO MEET ITS DEMANDS FOR DISARMAMENT, HE COULD ALSO
ACHIEVE WHAT HE WANTS (CONTINUED POWER). ETCHEGARAY DID IN
FACT UNDERSCORE TO SADDAM THE SERIOUSNESS OF THE SITUATION
AND THE NEED TO WORK WITH UNMOVIC, TO WHICH SADDAM'S
IMMEDIATE REACTION WAS BOTH DEFIANT AND FATALISTIC. HE
OFFERED THE STANDARD LINE THAT IRAQ WAS COMPLYING, THAT THE
U.S. WAS PURSUING A WAR OF AGGRESSION, AND THAT IRAQIS WOULD
FIGHT TO THE END.

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DEALING WITH THE "DICTATOR MENTALITY"
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3. (C) DESPITE SADDAM'S SURFACE OBSTINACY, HOWEVER, THE HOLY
SEE BELIEVES THE INTERNATIONAL UNITY AND FIRM DIPLOMACY
BACKED BY A CREDIBLE THREAT OF FORCE FROM THE U.S. AND OTHERS
HAS CONTRIBUTED TO SIGNIFICANT, IF INCOMPLETE, ADVANCES SINCE
THE FALL, REFLECTED BY SADDAM'S ACCEPTANCE OF UNMOVIC, THE
DECISION TO PERMIT OVERFLIGHTS, AND RECENT MOVEMENT ON
PRIVATE INTERVIEWS WITH IRAQI SCIENTISTS. THEY BELIEVE THAT
FULL DISARMAMENT CAN BE ACCOMPLISHED WITH CONTINUED FIRM BUT
SUBTLE DIPLOMACY THAT WOULD OFFER SADDAM BOTH A FACE-SAVING
ESCAPE FROM HIS PREDICAMENT AND PERSONAL SURVIVAL. ACCORDING
TO COPPOLA, THE KEY TO PROGRESS IN IRAQ WAS TO RECOGNIZE THAT
CORNERED DICTATORS LIKE SADDAM WILL DIG IN WHEN CONFRONTED.
"THEY ARE NOT USED TO DISCUSSING THINGS AND BEING
CHALLENGED," COPPOLA OBSERVED. "IF YOU WANT TO GET THINGS
FROM THEM, THEY CANNOT BE HUMILIATED." RATHER, THE HOLY SEE
REGARDS IT AS ESSENTIAL TO ESTABLISH A DEGREE OF "TRUST" --
"NOT TRUST OF SADDAM TO BE SURE" -- BUT THE KIND OF
UNDERSTANDING BETWEEN BUSINESSMEN THAT THERE IS SOMETHING IN
IT FOR EVERYONE IF ALL PLAY BY THE RULES. IN THIS WAY,

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ACTION EUR-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 DOTE-00 PERC-00
SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 FAAE-00 VC-00 TEDE-00 INR-00
IO-00 LAB-01 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NEA-00 NSAE-00
OIC-02 OMB-01 OPIC-01 CAEX-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00
ACE-00 P-00 SCT-00 SP-00 SSO-00 SS-00 STR-00
TRSE-00 T-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 PRM-00 DRL-01
G-00 SAS-00 SWCI-00 /008W
-------------- 388B98 200658Z /38
O 200609Z FEB 03
FM AMEMBASSY VATICAN
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE
INFO ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
JOINT STAFF WASHDC PRIORITY
SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY
WHITE HOUSE NSC WASHDC PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 VATICAN 000683

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR, EUR/WE-MENNUTI, NEA, S-KELLY AND GRAZE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/19/2013
TAGS: PREL MOPS PHUM MOPS PHUM MOPS PHUM VT VTPREL VTPREL
SUBJECT: SADDAM MEETING WITH CARDINAL ETCHEGARAY: VATICAN
SEES "LAST CHANCE FOR DIPLOMACY"

COPPOLA CONCLUDED, DIPLOMACY CAN SECURE THE DISARMAMENT THE
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PAGE 02 VATICA 00683 02 OF 03 200658Z
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY WANTS AND THE SURVIVAL SADDAM SEEKS.


4. (C) TO BACK UP THIS CASE, THE HOLY SEE VIEWS THE FACT THAT
SADDAM CONVENED HIS RUBBER-STAMP PARLIAMENT ON THE FRIDAY
CONCLUDING THE HADJ TO PROMULGATE THE LAW BANNING WMD (WHICH
WAS SUGGESTED BY ETCHEGARAY AT THE HOLY SEE'S REQUEST) AS A
SIGN OF SADDAM'S WILLINGNESS TO COOPERATE WITH THE
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY. WORKING DISCRETELY RATHER THAN
DIRECTLY WITH SADDAM, ETCHEGARAY HAD PRESSED THE IRAQIS TO
OFFER SOME SORT OF SIGN THAT THEY HAD ABANDONED EFFORTS TO
"NEGOTIATE" COMPLIANCE WITH THE I/C AND TO BUILD ON THEIR
LIMITED COOPERATION BEFORE HANS BLIX' FEBRUARY 14 REPORT TO
THE UNSC. THE HOLY SEE REGARDS THIS RESULT -- DESPITE ITS
LIMITED EFFECT -- AS AN IMPORTANT SIGN OF IRAQI WILLINGNESS
TO COOPERATE IF NOT BACKED INTO A CORNER.

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WHAT DO WE WANT?
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5. (C) IN DETERMINING THE WAY FORWARD, COPPOLA SAID THE
APPROACH DEPENDED ON THE REAL GOAL OF THE INTERNATIONAL
COMMUNITY. IF THE GOAL IS TO REMOVE SADDAM, THEN HE AGREED
THAT WAR IS THE MOST EFFECTIVE AND QUICKEST METHOD. HOWEVER,
THE WORLD MUST THEN BE PREPARED TO FACE THE CONSEQUENCES OF
THIS DECISION -- WHICH COULD INCLUDE LOSS OF CONTROL OF
SADDAM'S WMD TO TERRORISTS IN THE CHAOS OF BATTLE OR ITS
IMMEDIATE AFTERMATH, DEATH OF ALLIED SOLDIERS AND IRAQI
CIVILIANS, ENVIRONMENTAL DESTRUCTION, AND, MOST WORRISOME TO
THE HOLY SEE, THE UNLEASHING OF EVER GREATER FUNDAMENTALIST
PASSIONS WITH "INCALCULABLE CONSEQUENCES." IF, ON THE OTHER
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PAGE 03 VATICA 00683 02 OF 03 200658Z
HAND, THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY GENUINELY SEEKS TO DISARM
IRAQ OF WMD, SUBTLE DIPLOMATIC PRESSURE THAT DOESN'T
"HUMILIATE" SADDAM CAN WORK, COPPOLA BELIEVED. HE ASSERTED
THAT EVER GREATER PRESSURE FROM INSPECTIONS AND MONITORING
WOULD INCREASINGLY HINDER SADDAM'S ABILITY TO POSE A THREAT.
FURTHERMORE, HE MAINTAINED THAT STEPPED UP INTELLIGENCE AND
LAW ENFORCEMENT, AS WELL AS OCCASIONAL "SURGICAL STRIKES" ON
SUSPECTED WEAPONS SITES WOULD BE MORE EFFECTIVE THAN ALL-OUT
WAR IN ACHIEVING DISARMAMENT WITHOUT GENERATING CHAOS THAT
COULD LEAD TO THE DISAPPEARANCE OF WMD FROM IRAQ. PRESSED ON
THIS POINT, COPPOLA ASSERTED THAT WAR WOULD CAUSE SUCH CHAOS
IN IRAQ (WHICH HE ALREADY CHARACTERIZED AS A HOPELESSLY
DISORGANIZED SOCIETY) THAT ANY WMD NOT IMMEDIATELY DESTROYED
WOULD SURELY BE SPIRITED AWAY TO PRECISELY THOSE PLAYERS
(INTERNATIONAL TERRORISTS) MOST LIKELY TO USE THEM.


6. (C) IN THE DISARMAMENT SCENARIO, COPPOLA OBSERVED, GAINING
IRAQI COOPERATION WOULD REQUIRE BUILDING SOME TRUST AND
CONFIDENCE, WHICH IS WHAT THE ETCHEGARAY MISSION HOPED TO
BEGIN. "THE ONLY WAY TO MOVE FORWARD IS AWAY FROM THE TV
CAMERAS, TO MAKE HIM UNDERSTAND." HE NOTED THAT EVEN THE
WORST PEOPLE OFTEN BELIEVE THEY ARE GOOD, THAT THEY ARE
FOLLOWING THE RIGHT AND JUST PATH, OR, IN SADDAM'S CASE, THAT
HE IS COLLABORATING. ETCHEGARAY'S MISSION, COPPOLA
CONCLUDED, SOUGHT TO CREATE AN OPENING TO CONVINCE SADDAM
THAT HE COULD OBTAIN WHAT HE WANTS BETTER IN COLLABORATION
WITH THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY RATHER THAN IN CONFRONTATION
WITH IT. THAT SAID, THE HOLY SEE RECOGNIZES THAT TIME IS NOT
ON THE SIDE OF PEACE UNLESS SADDAM ACCEPTS THE NEED TO
COOPERATE FULLY.

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THE MOOD IN BAGHDAD
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7. (C) ASKED HIS IMPRESSIONS OF THE PSYCHOLOGICAL CONDITION
OF IRAQIS HE MET WHILE IN BAGHDAD, COPPOLA SAID THEY ARE
"RESIGNED TO WAR, FATALISTIC IN THE ARAB WAY." HE SAID MANY
APPEAR TO WANT TO LEAVE, AND ARE MAKING PLANS TO DO SO, BUT
THAT THE REGIME HAS MADE IT IMPOSSIBLE - IN ORDER TO HAVE AS
MANY CIVILIAN CASUALTIES AS POSSIBLE SHOULD WAR ERUPT. GIVEN
THE RISKS IRAQI CIVILIANS WOULD FACE, COPPOLA INFORMED US
THAT THE HOLY SEE HAD DECIDED NOT TO RESPOND TO A J5 REQUEST
CONVEYED TO THEM TO LIST AND IDENTIFY HOLY SEE DIPLOMATIC AND
OTHER CATHOLIC SITES ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. COPPOLA SAID "WE
CANNOT SAY IT'S NOT 'OK' TO BOMB HERE, BUT IT IS 'OK' TO BOMB
THERE."

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COMMENT
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8. (C) AS SECRETARY OF STATE SODANO CLARIFIED IN AN INTERVIEW
YESTERDAY, THE HOLY SEE IS NOT PACIFIST, BUT IS SEEKING TO BE

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CONFIDENTIAL PTQ9132

PAGE 01 VATICA 00683 03 OF 03 200658Z
ACTION EUR-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 DOTE-00 PERC-00
SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 FAAE-00 VC-00 TEDE-00 INR-00
IO-00 LAB-01 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NEA-00 NSAE-00
OIC-02 OMB-01 OPIC-01 CAEX-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00
ACE-00 P-00 SCT-00 SP-00 SSO-00 SS-00 STR-00
TRSE-00 T-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 PRM-00 DRL-01
G-00 SAS-00 SWCI-00 /008W
-------------- 388BA3 200659Z /38
O 200609Z FEB 03
FM AMEMBASSY VATICAN
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE
INFO ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
JOINT STAFF WASHDC PRIORITY
SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY
WHITE HOUSE NSC WASHDC PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 VATICAN 000683

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR, EUR/WE-MENNUTI, NEA, S-KELLY AND GRAZE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/19/2013
TAGS: PREL MOPS PHUM MOPS PHUM MOPS PHUM VT VTPREL VTPREL
SUBJECT: SADDAM MEETING WITH CARDINAL ETCHEGARAY: VATICAN
SEES "LAST CHANCE FOR DIPLOMACY"

A PEACEMAKER, "WORKING INTENSELY TO PREVENT THE OUTBREAK OF
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PAGE 02 VATICA 00683 03 OF 03 200658Z
CONFLICTS." FOLLOWING ETCHEGARAY'S MISSION, THE HOLY SEE IS
GUARDEDLY OPTIMISTIC THAT DISARMAMENT CAN BE ACHIEVED
PEACEFULLY, AS THEY CAME AWAY WITH A SENSE THAT IRAQ NOW
UNDERSTANDS IT NEEDS TO BE GENUINELY, AND NOT BEGRUDGINGLY,
COLLABORATIVE. WHILE THE ETCHEGARAY VISIT WAS THE HOLY SEE'S
LAST, BEST SHOT AT CONVINCING SADDAM TO COMPLY, WE CAN EXPECT
THE HOLY SEE TO CONTINUE TO PRESS ITS CASE PUBLICLY AND
PRIVATELY THAT WAR SHOULD BE THE VERY LAST OPTION. MOREOVER,
THE HOLY SEE'S OWN "CONSTITUENT" INTERESTS -- THE PHYSICAL
SAFETY OF MILLIONS OF CHRISTIANS LIVING IN MUSLIM COUNTRIES
BOTH DURING AND AFTER THE WAR -- WILL BE A FOREMOST CONCERN.
AT THE SAME TIME, THE HOLY SEE FULLY SHARES OUR ASSESSMENT OF
THE DANGERS PRESENTED BY INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM AND OF AN
UNFETTERED SADDAM ARMED WITH WMD. THEY ARE INCREASINGLY
CONCERNED WITH THE GROWING PUBLIC PERCEPTION OF TRANSATLANTIC
DISUNITY AND OF A SPLIT BETWEEN THE U.S. AND THE VATICAN,
GIVEN THEIR BELIEF THAT WE ARE ALL SEEKING THE SAME GOAL OF
IRAQI DISARMAMENT.


9. (C) ACTION REQUEST: THE POPE MET WITH UN SECRETARY
GENERAL KOFI ANNAN FEBRUARY 19 AND WILL MEET PRIME MINSTER
BLAIR FEBRUARY 22. WE EXPECT THE POPE WILL CONTINUE TO
PURSUE EVERY OPPORTUNITY TO PRESS FOR A RESOLUTION THAT
AVOIDS WAR. THERE HAS BEEN CONSIDERABLE MEDIA SPECULATION
ABOUT A POTENTIAL PAPAL EMISSARY TO WASHINGTON REFLECTING THE
HOLY SEE'S DESIRE FOR GREATER CONTACT WITH WASHINGTON ON THE
IRAQ ISSUE, BUT THE HOLY SEE HAS BEEN WARY OF BILATERALIZING
THE CONFLICT BY SENDING EMISSARIES TO BAGHDAD AND WASHINGTON.
IN LIGHT OF THE HOLY SEE'S DESIRE TO TONE DOWN PERCEPTIONS
OF CONFLICT WITH THE UNITED STATES AND ITS DESIRE TO CONTINUE
PUSHING FOR PEACEFUL SOLUTIONS, EMBASSY STRONGLY BELIEVES
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THAT A MEETING BETWEEN A SENIOR USG OFFICIAL AND THE POPE
WOULD SERVE TO REINFORCE OUR SHARED OBJECTIVE OF PEACEFUL
IRAQI DISARMAMENT WHILE HELPING OVERCOME PERCEPTIONS OF
DIVISION BETWEEN THE U.S. AND THE HOLY SEE AT THIS CRITICAL
TIME.
NICHOLSON

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2003VATICA00683 - Classification: CONFIDENTIAL