HONDURAS CONFIDENT ICJ WILL RULE IN ITS FAVOR;

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEGUCIGALPA 002221

SIPDIS

STATE FOR WHA/CEN, WHA/PPC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/18/2013
TAGS: PBTS ES HO
SUBJECT: HONDURAS CONFIDENT ICJ WILL RULE IN ITS FAVOR;
CONTENT WITH PROGRESS ON BORDER DEMARCATION WITH EL
SALVADOR

REF: A. TEGUCIGALPA 654


B. EL SALVADOR 2226 (ALL NOTAL)

Classified By: Political Chief Francisco Palmieri; Reasons 1.5 (b) and
(d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Honduran officials are confident the
International Court of Justice (ICJ) will uphold its original
1992 decision demarcating the border between Honduras and El
Salvador and are dismissive of El Salvadoran claims that new
material unknown to the Court at the time would have been a
decisive factor in the original proceedings. Honduras is
also very pleased with the progress thus far by the
OAS-sponsored effort (lead by NIMA specialist John Gates) to
assist the two countries in demarcating their borders,
predicting that the whole process should come to a conclusion
by the end of 2004. END SUMMARY

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El Salvador's ICJ Appeal
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2. (C) On September 17 PolOff met with Miguel Tosta Appel,
President of the Honduran Special El Salvador-Honduras Border
Demarcation Commission, to discuss the pending El Salvador
appeal of the 1992 ICJ decision demarcating the border
between the two countries. Appel optimistically predicated
that the ICJ would uphold its original decision because El
Salvador had not produced any new documentation unavailable
during the 1992 decision that would have been a decisive
factor in the original proceedings. Appel prognosticated
that El Salvador's appeal was more a face-saving effort to
demonstrate to the Salvadoran people that all avenues had
been exhausted before finally implementing the Court's 1992
decision rather than a serious effort to convince the ICJ to
reverse its earlier findings.


3. (U) Public hearings were held from September 8-12 in The
Hague on El Salvador's Application for Revision of the ICJ's
original 11 September 1992 decision concerning the border
dispute between El Salvador and Honduras. At issue are 30
square miles on the Gulf of Fonseca that El Salvador claims
it was wrongfully denied in the 1992 decision. To bolster
its claim, El Salvador has produced a map and other documents
from a Chicago library that it claims represents new material
unknown to the Court when if first made its original decision.


4. (C) Commissioner Appel, who was also a member of the
original Honduran delegation to The Hague in 1992, opined to
PolOff that Honduras and El Salvador were both fully aware of
the Chicago material prior to 1992, but neither side choose
to bring it to the Court's attention (He was unsure why El
Salvador had not referenced the Chicago material in 1992).
Appel dismissed any differences between the Chicago material
and the documents that formed the backbone of the Court's
original 1992 judgment to the lack of effective copying
material, noting that "copy machines didn't exist in the
1790's."

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OAS Border Demarcation Effort
--------------


5. (SBU) On August 18 Honduras and El Salvador began
implementing the OAS-directed border demarcation decision for
the first of six disputed areas ordered by the 1992 ICJ
decision (ref B). Assisting in the effort is OAS envoy, NIMA
specialist John Gates. Commissioner Appel praised Gates'
professionalism and predicted that the process of demarcation
and placement of border markers should come to a conclusion
by the end of 2004 if the Government of El Salvador (GOES)
and the Government of Honduras (GOH) sufficiently fund the
effort.


6. (C) Commissioner Appel acknowledged that some of the
border areas under review (particularly in the second area
and the Gulf of Fonseca) are politically sensitive for El
Salvador but he did not think Gates would deviate, even
partially, from the original 1992 ICJ decision. Appel added
he believes both the GOH and GOES will fully abide by Gates'
decisions regardless of the final outcome, referring to a May
agreement between the GOH and GOES that Gates' decisions
would be final.


7. (C) Commissioner Appel did not belabor the slow progress
on border demarcation, saying he understood the politics
behind what he believes to be El Salvador's past
"foot-dragging" on implementing the 1992 agreement. Appel
was confident, however, that progress would increase
significantly, particularly after the expected ICJ decision
not to revisit its original 1992 findings.


8. (C) Comment: The ICJ's initial ruling gave two-thirds of
the 168 square miles in dispute to Honduras, including
territory on the Gulf of Fonseca with access to vital Pacific
Ocean coastal and fishing areas, which explains Honduran
resentment that El Salvador has been slow to implement the
initial 1992 decision. The GOH is extremely confident that
El Salvador's appeal to the ICJ to revisit the Gulf of
Fonseca area seems to have little chance of success. The
completion of the appeals process will remove the final legal
obstacle to completing the border demarcation process. The
rest depends upon the political will of the two governments
and the resources available to implement the agreement.
PIERCE