A LATIN AMERICAN POPE? CARDINAL RODRIGUEZ DEEMED

C O N F I D E N T I A L TEGUCIGALPA 001642

SIPDIS

STATE FOR WHA/CEN, INR/B, DRL/IRF,

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/10/2013
TAGS: PGOV KJUS PHUM HO VA
SUBJECT: A LATIN AMERICAN POPE? CARDINAL RODRIGUEZ DEEMED
PAPABILE, SPECULATION MAY AID HIS ANTI-CORRUPTION CAMPAIGN

REF: A. TEGUCIGALPA 625

B. TEGUCIGALPA 1534

C. VATICAN 4582

Classified By: Political Section Chief, Francisco L. Palmieri; Reasons
1.5(b) and (d).


1. (U) Summary. Pope John Paul II's increasing frailty has
prompted discussion over potential successors to the papacy,
among which experts have identified Cardinal Oscar Andres
Maradiaga Rodriguez of Honduras as both a popular and
geographically strategic candidate. Despite the Euro-centric
tradition of the papacy, some Vatican experts believe that
the next pontiff may, in fact, be a Latin American. Cardinal
Rodriguez, Archbishop of Tegucigalpa is viewed as a strong
choice among Latin American cardinals eligible for the
position, both for his insider connections and international
reputation as a champion of social justice and political
transparency in his home country of Honduras. In Honduras,
because of this status, the media pays special attention to
his public pronouncements. End Summary.

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Latin America: The Church's Fastest Growing Constituency
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2. (SBU) While European and American church membership has
sharply declined in recent years, the developing world (and
Latin America, in particular) has experienced the opposite
trend. Today, home to more than half of the world's
Catholics, Latin America has increasingly emerged as the new
face of Catholicism in the 21st century. Reflecting the
rapid increase in church membership, the region is now
represented by a powerful 22-Cardinal voting electorate for
the papacy, which is the second largest regional voting block
(next to Europe).


3. (SBU) In addition to Cardinal Rodriguez, other strong
candidates from the region identified in REFtel C and by the
media include: Dario Catrillon Hoyos (74) of Colombia; Jorge
Mario Bergoglio (66) of Argentina; Claudio Hummes (68) of
Brazil; Norberto Rivera Carrera (61) of Mexico; and Alfonso
Lopez Trujillo (67) of Colombia. While many experts believe
Rodriguez to be among the top few potential candidates, some
have also indicated that the Cardinal's relative youth, at 60
years of age, may prove a potential obstacle among an older
voting electorate. Additionally, the Cardinal's health is
not 100 percent. He allegedly suffers from diabetes, for
which he apparently spent a month in a German hospital last
fall. Also, his life has been threatened repeatedly in
Honduras. (See REFtel A.)

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Speculation Draws Greater Attention to the Cardinal's Battles
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4. (C) Comment. Even though the timeframe for the next
papal election is indeterminable, widespread media
speculation among experts and the press regarding Cardinal
Rodriguez's potential candidacy has nonetheless had an
impact. Voted the third most powerful public figure in
Honduras (behind President Maduro and the Ambassador) earlier
this year, the Cardinal has been featured even more
prominently in the press recently. Should the Cardinal
emerge publicly as a contender for the papacy in the coming
months, his high profile campaigns will likely receive
increased moral and political weight. Given the close
relationship between the Ambassador and Cardinal Rodriguez,
the Cardinal's popular moral authority represents an
increased opportunity to rally additional Honduran support
for many of our shared priorities, including fighting
narco-corruption, violence and poverty. At the same time, it
is important to note that the Cardinal has, at times,
criticized several U.S. policies, such as the War in Iraq,
CAFTA, and the level of international assistance to the
developing world. End Comment.
Palmer