DOMINICAN ELECTIONS #12: HATUEY IN CHECK, NO END

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SANTO DOMINGO 007567

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

STATE FOR WHA AND DRL
NSC FOR SHANNON AND MADISON
LABOR FOR ILAB
TREASURY FOR OASIA-LAMONICA
USDOC FOR 4322/ITA/MAC/WH/CARIBBEAN BASIN DIVISION
USDOC FOR 3134/ITA/USFCS/RD/WH

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: DR PGOV
SUBJECT: DOMINICAN ELECTIONS #12: HATUEY IN CHECK, NO END
GAME FOR PRD NOMINATION

REF: A. (A) SANTO DOMINGO 7132

B. (B) SANTO DOMINGO 7490


1. (SBU) Following is number 12 in our Dominican presidential
election series:

PRD PRIMARIES: HATUEY IN CHECK, BUT NO END GAME YET FOR THE
NOMINATION

The Central Electoral Board (JCE) on December 22 issued a
ruling that many observers here believe will advance
President Mejia's controversial bid for re-election. The
ruling sidelined one of President Mejia's four remaining
challengers for the ruling PRD's presidential nomination,
confirmed the validity of a primary election in which Mejia
plans to compete with or without opponents, contributed
nothing to repairing the deep divisions in the country's
largest political party, and weakened the JCE's tenuous
credibility as a nonpartisan referee of the presidential
election process between now and May 16.

The first and so far only official PRD candidate, elected in
a primary December 7 (Ref A),PRD president Hatuey De Camps
lost his advantage when the JCE ruled invalid the November 15
rump meeting of the PRD National Executive Committee (CEN)
that had authorized the primary election that nominated him.
Hatuey bitterly criticized the JCE -- and specifically its
plenary president Luis Arias -- for acting not as independent
judges, but as partisans of Mejia's PRD/PPH faction. Hatuey
said his legal team would consider a possible appeal to the
Supreme Court. (Note: JCE decisions normally cannot be
appealed, but may be if constitutional issues are involved.
End note.)

A different CEN meeting on November 15, which had convoked a
PRD primary to include President Mejia and three other
candidates, received the JCE seal of approval. The
organizers of this CEN had asked the JCE to rule on which CEN
legally represented the PRD. The JCE found that the second
CEN -- attended by more than 500 members -- had gathered a
quorum according to PRD rules, but the Hatuey De Camps CEN
had fallen far short. The JCE also ordered the PRD to reopen
the nominating process to anyone not yet in the game.

The three other challengers to Mejia -- Vice President
Milagros Ortiz-Bosch, Tourism Secretary Rafael "Fello"
Subervi, and Enmanuel Esquea -- held firm on their recent
withdrawal from the authorized PRD primary with President
Mejia, now rescheduled for January 18 (Ref B). The three are
considering a plan to commission two preference polls among
PRD members and to unite behind whichever of the three scores
the highest.

The situation could unfold in several ways: (1) Former
nominee Hatuey De Camps may join with the three now that they
have dissocated themselves from Mejia's primary; (2) The
three -- or four -- may pool their supporters behind a single
candidate to try to convince Mejia to drop out; or (3) The
three may back a unity candidate who would then reverse
position and re-enter the January 18 primary against Mejia.
In its ruling, the JCE stipulated that it would monitor the
primary election to ensure compliance with party rules and
the law.

JCE Dispute Resolution Chamber presiding judge Salvador Ramos
promised to publish a full text of the decision with
supporting arguments, but the release has been delayed.
Plenary presiding judge -- and JCE head -- Arias publicly
disclaimed any responsibility and said the JCE's Dispute
Resolution Chamber had exclusive power to decide the case.
Press reports indicated that the chamber's five judges had
reached a 3-2 decision, with presiding judge Ramos reversing
his position at the last minute. According to the reports,
the minority judges had proposed invalidating both CEN
meetings, thus requiring the conflicting factions to
compromise on a revised presidential nomination procedure.


As of Christmas Eve, a traditional family holiday here,
Archbishop Nicolas de Jesus Cardinal Lopez Rodriguez's recent
call for a political truce is expected to postpone further
significant moves until early January. But for the PRD,
already behind in nominating its presidential candidate, each
delay dims the divided party's election prospects.


2. (U) Drafted: Bainbridge Cowell.



HERTELL