Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
03SANTODOMINGO6931
2003-12-01 22:26:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Santo Domingo
Cable title:  

DOMINICAN ELECTION SERIES #4 -- RE-ELECTIONISM

Tags:  PGOV DR 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SANTO DOMINGO 006931 

SIPDIS

STATE FOR WHA AND DRL; NSC FOR SHANNON AND MADISON
LABOR FOR ILAB; TREASURY FOR OASIA-LAMONICA
USDOC FOR 4322/ITA/MAC/WH/CARIBBEAN BASIN DIVISION
USDOC FOR 3134/ITA/USFCS/RD/WH

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/29/2008
TAGS: PGOV DR
SUBJECT: DOMINICAN ELECTION SERIES #4 -- RE-ELECTIONISM


Classified By: DCM LISA KUBISKE. REASON: 1.5 (B/D).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SANTO DOMINGO 006931

SIPDIS

STATE FOR WHA AND DRL; NSC FOR SHANNON AND MADISON
LABOR FOR ILAB; TREASURY FOR OASIA-LAMONICA
USDOC FOR 4322/ITA/MAC/WH/CARIBBEAN BASIN DIVISION
USDOC FOR 3134/ITA/USFCS/RD/WH

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/29/2008
TAGS: PGOV DR
SUBJECT: DOMINICAN ELECTION SERIES #4 -- RE-ELECTIONISM


Classified By: DCM LISA KUBISKE. REASON: 1.5 (B/D).


1. (SBU) Following is the fourth in our series on the
Dominican presidential election:

RE-ELECTIONISM

(U) Why does Dominican President Hipolito Mejia continue to
drive toward re-election, in the face of increasingly vocal
dissent? The business sector and politicans are deeply
worried about government finances and the possibility of
runaway inflation. Many Dominicans are seeking irrationally
for a "magic bullet" against the financial crisis; some think
that all will be well once again if only Mejia will face the
facts and renounce his attempt at re-election.

(SBU) The deeply personalistic nature of Dominincan politics
encourages this simplistic view. In fact, the crisis is
systemic, rooted in the casual dealings, influence peddling
and corruption of Dominican institutions. Mejia is a winner
in this environment and has shown great ability to get along.
Although he bears some responsibility for the financial
crisis (because of the administration's decision to guarantee
all -- repeat all -- the deposits in the failed Baninter),
Mejia's early departure from the political scene would not
solve the economic problem. Just the opposite: he would
forfeit all credibility in the tough dealings needed to meet
the conditions for the IMF agreement. To get that standby,
this President needs to deliver in very short order a 2004
budget which will include additional further taxes to
increase revenue by about 0.6 percent of GDP. That probably
means obliging a nervous Congress to raise the value-added
tax (VAT) for 2004 from 12 percent to 14 or 15 percent, a
measure which must be voted by late December as part of the
next budget.

(SBU) Mejia is already walking a fine line between courting
political support and accepting budget reality. Perhaps to
make the medicine of the coming austerity go down more
smoothly, he just boosted hopes concerning medicine prices by
issuing a decree exempting from import taxes the inputs and
capital goods for the pharmaceutical industry, and he
exempted books and magazines entirely from the VAT. This

week he publicly fudged comments on the IMF terms ("I will
not sign any agreement which raises electricity rates" --
this at a time when his economic team is proposing monthly
price adjustments, scaled according to consumption). At the
same time, he has reaffirmed privately to us his intention to
sign an agreement with the IMF that includes both sharp
spending cuts and tax increases.

Voices against Re-election

(C) Supreme Court President Jorge Subero Isa told an emboff
in early November that pressure against Mejia's re-election
effort was growing. Respected intellectual Hugo Tolentino
Dipp -- the former foreign minister who resigned over his
disagreement with Mejia about sending Dominican troops to
Iraq -- is among the notables talking against re-electionism.
He gave his "valued friend" Hipolito Mejia a good hard shove
in that direction on November 13, publishing an elegantly
worded, hard-hitting "Public Letter to the Honorable Hipolito
Mejia, President of the Dominican Republic" in the
government-owned daily Listin Diario.

(U) Among Tolentino,s grave, courtly comments:

"Can it perhaps be true that the fascination with the power
to command, with the delight of seeing the obedience of the
governed, and the vanity induced by ceremony and deference,
have managed to bring the long-time PRD stalwart Hipolito
Mejia to betray one of the most democratic traditions of the
Dominican people and of the PRD? I do not wish to believe
it, despite the heavy doubts that weigh on my understanding
and despite the strictly personal arguments of justification
you used when casting yourself forward from the seat of power
into a re-election effort. In your justification, Mr.
President, there was not a single consideration, not even an
inappropriate one, which could be interpreted as addressing a
national interest."

and

"The tradition of continual presidential re-election - -
'continuism' - - has been a heavy burden for the Dominican
people, Mr. President. Do not go along that road believing
you will be the exceptional man who will justify yourself and
overcome the severe damage that 're-electionism' has
inflicted on the Dominican Republic. Vehement ambition
followed in pursuit of remaining in power has always been
linked with the deliberate frustration of popular will. And
this is even more so, for when dealing with elections in
which the President of the Republic is a candidate, our
institutions lack the necessary independence and sufficient
moral stature to guarantee complete transparency of the
results. Refusing to recognize this reality, our
're-electionists' have marked their futures with the stigma
of illegitimacy and even of despotism."

(SBU) Tolentino Dipp does not speak for any particular
faction of the PRD, but his lofty exposition of the PRD's
traditional opposition to presidential re-election has all
the more resonance for that.

(U) The Catholic Church, a traditionally influential voice in
civil society, has felt called upon to express its concern at
a time of perceived national crisis. On November 26, the
Conference of Dominican Bishops, comprising 19 prelates
headed by Archbishop Nicolas de Jesus Lopez Rodriguez,
asserted in a document demanding reforms to deal with the
crisis, "There are those who believe that the renunciation by
the honorable President of his candidacy for re-election
would highly favor social peace, confidence, and
governability. We leave this to his conscience." To their
credit, the bishops also called for called for cuts in public
spending, removal of corrupt government officials, and public
and private efforts to restore business confidence.

(U) Two Protestant evangelical organizations also recommended
this past week that the President "examine his conscience" on
the issue.

(U) Elena Viyella, president of the National Council of
Private Enterprise, has consistently characterized the
President's re-election effort as a source of uncertainty and
concern for the private sector. Marisol Vicens, the lawyer
who heads the National Young Entrepreneurs Association, is
unambiguous in urging the President not to run.

A PPH vision

(C) President Mejia is playing a forceful, calculated
re-election game. On November 22 he opened a new headquarters
for his PRD/PPH (Proyecto Presidencial Hipolito),and on
November 30 he officially registered his candidacy for
nomination at a party convention December 14. To a question
about his re-election bid, he shot back, "Stop asking me
that. No way I'm going to withdraw." PRD insiders tell us
that his campaign is basing its approach on the results of
privately commissioned polls showing he can take 58 percent
of the votes in the PRD convention. These players believe
that PRD President Hatuey Descamps can gather less than 10
percent of party support for his rival convention on December
7 intended to reject re-electionism. The mid-levels of the
national PRD machine -- including mayors, city councils, and
legislators who have benefited from Mejia's public works
projects and other government spending -- provide a still
considerable base of support. Looking further out, Mejia
loyalists think that the President has a good prospect of
besting Leonel Fernandez (PLD) in a second round on June 30,
in part by attracting voters who will have supported
Reformista (PRSC) candidate Eduardo Estrella in the first
round May 16. Working on those assumptions, the PPH is not
paying much attention to the anti-re-electionistas.

The Burden of History

(U) Mejia's critics oppose his re-election not only because
of their objections to his policies, but because of the
Dominican Republic's history of manipulated voting in
presidential elections. The late strongman Joaquin Balaguer,
operating in a formally democratic political system,
accumulated 22 years in power through repeated use of
military intervention, violence, press restrictions and fraud
during elections. International and domestic outrage forced
him to step down in the face of an overwhelming opposition
victory (in 1978) and to accept an abbreviated term and a
constitutional change prohibiting re-election (in 1994).
Mejia used his control of Congress to abolish the
constitutional ban in 2002.

(end text)


2. (U) Drafters: Michael Meigs, Bainbridge Cowell
HERTELL