DOMINICAN ELECTION SERIES #3: POLITICAL PARTIES

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SUBJECT: DOMINICAN ELECTION SERIES #3: POLITICAL PARTIES
GIRD FOR CAMPAIGN



1. (SBU) Following is the third in our series on the
Dominican presidential election:

POLITICAL PARTIES GIRD FOR CAMPAIGN

The May 2004 presidential election in the Dominican Republic
will be the first in more than two decades not to be decided
by the late strongman and ex-president Joaquin Balaguer. The
charismatic founders who long dominated the Dominican
Revolutionary Party (PRD),Dominican Liberation Party (PLD),
and Social Christian Reformist Party (PRSC) -- Jose Francisco
Pena Gomez, Juan Bosch, and Balaguer -- lingered beyond their
prime and died in recent years. The passing of the
"caudillos" has made the contest for leadership far more
lively and far more divisive in the parties.

The ruling PRD and opposition PRSC have each split into
warring camps led by rival contenders. The PLD,s candidate,
former president Leonel Fernandez (1996-2000),is the
strongest figure in the electoral arena. The PRD, weakened
by President Hipolito Mejia,s recent plunge in popularity,
nonetheless will benefit from his allocation of official
resources -- public jobs, pork-barrel spending, and
government favors. The little-known PRSC candidate Eduardo
Estrella ranks a distant third. It is still too early to
predict who will prevail, since the candidates have barely
unlimbered their rhetoric and patronage in the opening
skirmishes of the campaign.

The Tattered White Banner of the PRD
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At first glance it appears that the PRD of President Hipolito
Mejia -- which claims to have 1.6 million loyal voters and
has committees in every corner of the Dominican Republic --
is well enough organized to overwhelm the opposition.
Centrist and pragmatic, the PRD long ago abandoned its
revolutionary stance of the 1960s. But Mejia, a popular
president during his first two years, has slipped badly in
approval ratings since 2002 -- voters blame him for the
country,s severe economic slump and many PRD colleagues
blame him for seeking reelection after having denied
repeatedly that he would do so, a shift they believe violates
party principles. His low domestic performance rating comes
close to a negative image of his vision and engagement in the
international arena. Dominican voters are more concerned
about jobs, affordable food and fuel, and electric lights
than about headlines from Madrid, Brasilia, or Kuwait.

The President,s PPH (Proyecto Presidencial Hipolito) faction
still controls much of the PRD machine. Our contacts
indicate as many as 70 percent of convention (party primary)
delegates will vote to re-nominate him. Seven other PRD
pre-candidates, including influential Tourism Secretary (and
PRD Secretary General) Rafael "Fello" Subervi and Vice
President Milagros Ortiz-Bosch, have challenged Mejia, based
on the party,s history of opposing the 'continuismo' of the
dictator Trujillo and the perennially (and fraudulently)
re-elected Balaguer. Subervi, Ortiz-Bosch and minor figure
Enmanuel Esquea have cut a deal with Mejia to participate in
a nominating convention on December 14. PRD president Hatuey
DeCamps and three other pre-candidates have announced plans
for a separate convention December 7 that would exclude
Mejia. Negotiations involving senior PRD mediators have
failed to patch up the schism, and prominent figures in civil
society including church organizations have taken up the
anti-reelection cause. Ortiz-Bosch, Subervi, and others
expect a Central Election Board (JCE) ruling on the legality
of whichever multiple PRD candidates emerge from the fog of
this battle.

The PLD and the Purple-Robed Knight
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The PLD, with fewer hard-core voters than the PRD (perhaps
700,000),draws its strength from having (1) a popular former
president as its candidate and (2) a disciplined party cadre.
Leonel Fernandez won the presidency in the 1996 election
with the help of the conservative Balaguer as much as from
the PLD founder, leftist intellectual Juan Bosch. Leonel,s
accomplishments, particularly privatization of state
enterprises and economic policies that spurred consistently
high economic growth, convincingly retired the PLD,s radical
ideology. He retained symbolic remnants by establishing
relations with Fidel Castro,s Cuba. This year, Fernandez in
his opposition role has criticized Mejia,s troop
contribution to the Iraq stabilization force and the plan to
negotiate a free trade agreement with the United States. But
our PLD contacts and Leonel's campaign statements on
attracting investment and creating private sector jobs to
restore prosperity suggest that if elected he would promote
common U.S.-Dominican interests in an open economy.

The PLD organization is the leanest of the three, with only
12,000 full members who have attended the party,s political
training institute. Although without official committees in
all of the nation,s localities, the PLD is strong in Santo
Domingo and other major cities. The sense of discipline
extends even to other senior PLD leaders. Former
presidential candidate (in 2000) Danilo Medina now serves as
Leonel,s campaign manager, and former Dominican Vice
President (1996-2000) Jaime David Fernandez Mirabal, the
other contender in this year,s PLD nominating convention,
recently attached his troops to Leonel,s campaign.

The PLD often tries to portray itself as less corrupt than
the other parties. However, the recent massive BANINTER
banking scandal here reflects inadequate supervision and
irregularities that predate the present administration, and
Leonel has acknowledged receipt of consulting fees from the
collapsed BANINTER. Additionally, while in office he faced
accusations of corruption and personal and family enrichment.
Some critics speculate that BANINTER-related prosecutions
might link him to the bank,s illegal financial transfers.
If hard evidence were to unexpectedly appear in court, PRD
campaigners would be quick to blast him. Still,
anti-corruption themes can cut both ways, so Dominican
politicians may be reluctant to use them aggressively in the
campaign.

PRSC Reds in a Cockfight
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"Reformistas" still lack a convincing champion. They are
generally seen as a smaller but still nationwide party that
will throw its vote to either the PLD or the PRD when the
time comes.

Reformista veterans of Balaguer,s entourage are mesmerized
by the current bloodletting in their own camp. Eduardo
Estrella won the nomination last March, defeating main rival
Jacinto Peynado -- a controversial outcome probably swung by
PRD/PPH supporters crossing over to vote in the PRSC primary.
Estrella is a former Secretary of Public Works. So far he
has failed to inspire the hundreds of thousands of PRSC
voters and local organizers throughout the country, despite
his campaigning in the interior and among Dominicans in New
York. Reformistas are frustrated by their low poll numbers
and leaders' lax performance. Indicative is the party,s
national headquarters, now usually shuttered and surrounded
by weeds.

Growing pressures exploded in a November 14-16 confrontation
between Estrella,s group and elder statesmen led by
Balaguer's former vice presidents Jacinto Peynado and Carlos
Morales Troncoso. Even if the insurgents succeed in their
bid to take over the PRSC -- complaints by both sides may
oblige the JCE to choose between them, implying recognition
of one or the other -- the party's candidate will probably
have to run against a sitting president (PRD) and a former
president (PLD). Peynado remains in the United States under
treatment for serious illness, commanding lieutenants from
afar, and Morales Troncoso served too long ago to attract
many voters. Neither, alone, has the following or charisma
to revitalize the party.

If no candidate wins a majority next May 16, the PRSC could
well be a swing force in the second round. Mejia,s PPH has
a cordial relationship with Estrella,s PRSC faction and
would hope to use this to deliver a PRD victory. Likewise,
Leonel,s PLD would appeal to Reformistas, mainly in the
Peynado wing, who want to unseat Mejia. No one knows how
PRSC voters would divide in a second round. Their squabbling
leaders are hoarding bargaining chips with which to demand
cabinet or sub-cabinet posts in the next administration. And
hope is not completely extinguished. If closely matched PLD
and PRD candidates cut each other to pieces in either phase
of the battle, even a lackluster Reformista might rally
enough confused voters to win a second-round upset.


2. (U) Drafted by: Bainbridge Cowell.
HERTELL