DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: PRD VOTES "NO" TO RE-ELECTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SANTO DOMINGO 005875

SIPDIS

STATE FOR WHA/CAR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/21/2013
TAGS: DR PGOV
SUBJECT: DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: PRD VOTES "NO" TO RE-ELECTION

REF: SANTO DOMINGO 5759

Classified By: Ambassador Hans Hertell for reasons 1.5 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: PRD members, in a consultative "plebiscite"
October 19, voted overwhelmingly against President Mejia's
bid for re-election next May. Turnout was respectable, but
some voting procedures were questionable and the results were
skewed by a boycott of Mejia supporters. Both Mejia and his
rivals for the PRD presidential nomination now appear willing
to negotiate to unify the party and pick a candidate.
Mejia's campaign chief told the Ambassador October 20 that
the PRD can recover from its internal fight and convince
voters to retain Mejia rather than bring back his main
adversary, former president Leonel Fernandez (PLD). However,
the official acknowledged that national economic problems
will hurt Mejia's chances. End summary.

Plebiscite Results
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2. (U) The ruling Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD) held a
"plebiscite" of its nationwide membership as planned October
19 (reftel). According to nearly complete results announced
October 20, from 3079 of 3800 polling sites, 318,817 voters
(91 percent)of a total of 349,207 voted "no" to the question
of whether the PRD should "change its anti-reelectionist
position to permit the re-election of President Hipolito
Mejia," versus 23,448 (7 percent) who voted "yes" and a
smaller number blank or nullified votes. The Central
Electoral Board (JCE) had rejected the request by President
Mejia's PPH faction to stop the referendum, noting that it
would be "consultative" and not binding. Journalists
observed a low turnout at many polling sites and lax
procedures such as voting by persons not listed on the PRD
rolls and lack of privacy for casting ballots.

Public Reactions
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3.(U) Mejia and other top officials publicly downplayed the
vote as "a joke" and "a failure." PRD president Hatuey De
Camps and other pre-candidates for the party's nomination who
backed the plebiscite characterized it as a reflection of the
majority will, which Mejia should take seriously. De Camps
told the press that he would soon convene the PRD's National
Executive Committee, which in turn could convoke a national
convention to nominate the candidate. However, De Camps
dodged a question about whether Mejia would be allowed to
register as a pre-candidate in the convention.

Readout from Mejia's Camp
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4. (C) State Secretary of Agriculture (and Mejia's campaign
coordinator) Eligio Jaquez told the Ambassador October 20
that the plebiscite was history and the action would soon
move to a national convention. Jaquez said that Mejia would
begin negotiations October 21 with Tourism Minister Rafael
"Fello" Subervi and Vice President Milagros Ortiz-Bosch --
both rivals for the PRD presidential nomination -- to unify
the party and make possible a convention that would include
Mejia and his supporters. Jaquez noted PPH polls of PRD
members indicating support for Mejia at 50 percent, Subervi
at 17 percent, and Ortiz-Bosch around 12-13 percent.


5. (C) Regardless of the PRD's internal splits, Jaquez
expressed "absolute confidence" that the party's candidate,
once nominated, could beat the main adversary in the May
election, former president (1996-2000) Leonel Fernandez
(Dominican Liberation Party - PLD). Jaquez cited a poll
showing greater support for the PRD than the PLD in the
Dominican electorate. He also claimed that leading bankers
oppose Fernandez's election bid, out of fear that he might
retaliate against them for revealing bank irregularities that
triggered the BANINTER scandal earlier this year. He
asserted that the PRD's nationwide organization will be able
to persuade the voters that the Mejia administration has done
more for them, all over the country, than Fernandez did.
However, Jaquez acknowledged that the national economic
downturn and financial crisis could seriously hamper Mejia's
campaign.

Comment
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6. (C) Given the disarray among Mejia's challengers for the
PRD nomination (septel),it seems probable that he will
negotiate successfully with his rivals and prevail in the PRD
nominating convention. The plebiscite had a respectable
turnout for a consultative vote, but polling procedures left
much to be desired and the results were skewed by the boycott
of PRD members who supported Mejia and would have voted
"yes." The wrangling PRD leaders now show signs of putting
the disputed plebiscite behind them and negotiating a deal
that would then be confirmed by the National Executive
Committee and a nominating convention.


7. (C) The PRD will need to pull together all of its forces
to have a fighting chance in the the May election. Many
Dominicans recall Leonel Fernandez's term in office as a time
of prosperity and blame Mejia for the current economic
problems. Fernandez has potential vulnerabilities, but the
divided PRD has not yet begun to attack them.
HERTELL