DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: DISPUTE OVER RE-ELECTION OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SANTO DOMINGO 005759

SIPDIS

STATE FOR WHA/CAR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/16/2013
TAGS: DR PGOV PINR
SUBJECT: DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: DISPUTE OVER RE-ELECTION OF
PRESIDENT MEJIA


Classified By: Ambassador Hans Hertell for reasons 1.5 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: The ruling Dominican Revolutionary Party
(PRD) is wrangling internally over whether to nominate
President Mejia as its candidate in the national election
next May. Other aspirants to the PRD nomination, arguing
that presidential re-election violates party policy and that the unpopular Mejia will drag the PRD to defeat, are
preparing to hold a "plebiscite" of party members on the
re-election issue October 19. Mejia and his PPH faction have called on the PRD rank and file to boycott the referendum and requested that it be banned by the GODR's Central Electoral Board. Meanwhile, Mejia's rivals have failed to unite behind one candidate to challenge the President. The possibility of an electoral defeat of the nation's biggest political party may add to public uncertainty arising from adverse economic conditions and corruption scandals. However, Mejia's main opponent, former president (1996-2000) Leonel Fernandez, has
his own vulnerabilities and is by no means assured of
victory. End summary.

The Re-election Issue
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2. (C) Last year, the Dominican Congress -- controlled by
President Hipolito Mejia's PPH (Presidential Project
Hipolito) faction of the PRD -- amended the constitution to
permit presidential re-election for the first time since

1994. Subsequently Mejia announced his intention to run as
the PRD candidate in the May 2004 election. Seven other
aspirants to the PRD nomination, including Vice President
Milagros Ortiz-Bosch, Tourism Minister (and PRD Secretary
General) Rafael "Fello" Subervi, and PRD President Hatuey
Decamps, have publicly opposed this plan, arguing that it
violates a PRD tradition of opposing re-election ever since
the administrations of the late president Joaquin Balaguer
and dictator Rafael Trujillo. The challengers also argue
that Mejia, who according to a recent international poll is
the least popular elected president in Latin America, cannot win the election and will drag the PRD to defeat. One influential PRD senator, who served as Mejia's campaign
coordinator in the 2000 election, told poloff October 15 that if Mejia becomes the candidate, he will lose and "bury the PRD."

PRD "Plebiscite"
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3. (U) To strengthen their hand, the challengers have
mobilized party machinery to hold a "plebiscite" of all 1.6
million PRD members on the re-election issue. Originally set for October 12, the balloting of the membership is now to take place October 19 at party-organized and -manned polling places all over the country. The printed ballots ask for a yes/no vote on the question, "Do you agree that the PRD should change its anti-re-electionist position to permit the re-election of President Hipolito Mejia?" The organizers of the plebiscite believe it is not inconsistent with Dominican law or the PRD's statutes. The PRD Elections Department chief has announced that preparations for the vote are nearly complete, with 4,000 polling sites and 25,000 workers. A media notice has urged PRD members to show up at the sites October 19 at 8:00 a.m.

President Mejia's Response
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4. (U) President Mejia and other PPH leaders have called on
the PRD rank and file to boycott the plebiscite, on grounds
that the party statutes do not provide for such a grass-roots referendum. They say the nomination should be decided at a national PRD convention, based on a recommendation from the PRD executive committee and discussion at a national plenary of party officials, as the rules stipulate. Recently, Agriculture Minister Eligio Jaquez -- Mejia's campaign coordinator -- delivered a formal request to the GODR's Central Electoral Board (JCE) to declare the plebiscite "null and void." Non-PPH leaders filed a counter-argument that the JCE should not interfere in this internal party consultation. The board is expected to issue an opinion before October 19.

The Seven in Disarray
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5. (U) The seven challengers met as a group 23 times to
coordinate their positions, but failed in their effort to
choose one candidate to confront Mejia or even to agree on a selection method, such as a rump convention or an opinion
poll of PRD members. The latest meeting October 15 broke up with the group in disagreement; Secretary General Subervi on October 16 announced he was pulling out and called on his followers to boycott the plebiscite. However, Vice President Ortiz-Bosch and others appear to continue supporting the plebiscite and -- if a majority of participants votes "no" to re-election -- hope to use that result against Mejia in a national PRD nominating convention. The seven also commissioned two recent polls of the general electorate, in both of which most respondents opposed Mejia's re-election.

Comment
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6. (C) Many of the PRD's mid- and upper-level officials
support Mejia, and none of the challengers has so far
gathered enough momentum to overcome him. We do not expect
the outcome of the plebiscite, which because of the boycott
will not represent the entire PRD membership, to
significantly affect Mejia's chances of becoming the
candidate. He might prevail in the convention by negotiating with Subervi, who has so far rejected the possibility of accepting the vice presidential nomination. Whether Mejia can then unify the party and win the election remains open to doubt, in light of the PRD's historical propensity to damaging internal splits. Such rivalries in 1986 weakened the party enough to lose its ruling status and remain in the opposition for 14 years. Even if Mejia pulls together the rival factions for the 2004 campaign, his low approval ratings will be a handicap, owing to a declining economy, high unemployment, financial crisis, and corruption scandals.


7. (C) A prospect of defeat of the nation's biggest political party may add to widespread public uncertainty arising from the unfavorable economic conditions, perceived official ineptitude, and revelations of malfeasance. However, a victory by Mejia's main opponent, former president (1996-2000) Leonel Fernandez of the Dominican Liberation Party (PLD),is by no means assured, given his own vulnerability to corruption charges and his party's relative weakness in the provinces.
HERTELL