ISLAH PARTY MODERATE WARNS ABOUT DEMONSTRATIONS;

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SANAA 000519

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/18/2013
TAGS: PGOV PREL YM DOMESTIC POLITICS
SUBJECT: ISLAH PARTY MODERATE WARNS ABOUT DEMONSTRATIONS;
DISCUSSES ELECTIONS

REF: SANAA 263

Classified By: Pol/Econ Deputy Chief Catherine J. Westley for Reasons 1
.5 (b,d)


1. (C) Summary: Islah party political director Mohamed
Qahtan expressed concern that an onset of war in Iraq would
endanger Americans in Sanaa because increased demonstrations
may spiral out of the government's control. P/E DepChief met
with him on March 17 at his request. Qahtan, a well-known
moderate, requested the meeting to discuss his concerns
about demonstrations and whether the April 27 parliamentary
elections will be postponed. Party election preparations and
the case of Sheikh Mohammed Ali al-Moayed were also discussed
(septel). End Summary.

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Concern about Demonstrations
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2. (C) Qahtan expressed concern that the
government-sponsored demonstrations could spiral out of
control with the onset of war in Iraq. He wanted to warn the
Embassy to be extra careful as he did not have great
confidence that all demonstrations would be controlled well
by the security forces. Qahtan also said he thinks "Saddam
should go now" and that the "Iraqi people have suffered
enough."

3, (C) P/E DepChief brought up the Islah party leadership's
comments at the government-sponsored demonstration held on
March 15. Islah party leader Sheikh al-Ahmar and Islah party
Shura Council Chairman and leader of the fundamentalist
faction Sheikh al-Zindani were both quoted in press reports
as calling for jihad against Americans should a war begin
against Iraq. P/E DepChief said that comments like that put
Americans and the Embassy in danger and were crossing the
line. Qahtan said he had written a column negating those
comments that was not published. He offered to apologize on
behalf of the party, but said he cannot really speak for all
factions. (Comment: Zindani leads the fundamentalist
faction, Qahtan is one of the moderates. End Comment). He
said that President Saleh had co-opted al-Zindani starting
with his forced participation on the Code of Conduct
committee (ref),and tried to place part of the blame for
al-Zindani's comments on the government for allowing and
perhaps encouraging them. He did not address Sheikh
al-Ahmar's comments.


4. (C) Post learned from the United Nations Security Chief
in Sanaa that the March 15 demonstration had to be dispersed
by gunfire in the air by security forces after some unruly
youths tried to climb a police truck with a machine gun
mounted upon it. This information was not confirmed by the
RSO with the Ministry of Interior. The MOI said the
dispersal by gunfire was to stop stone throwers from getting
out of hand. No one was injured or killed.

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Elections Could be Postponed; Party Preparations
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5. (C) Qahtan said that he hears rumors constantly about a
possible postponement of the April 27 elections if an Iraq
war starts, but does not have any concrete information. He
indicated that he hoped there would not be any delay. P/E
DepChief said that we encourage the elections to go forward.


6. (C) Qahtan said election preparations are continuing
between the Joint Meeting Parties (JMP) and within Islah.
Approximately 65 constituencies are already agreed between
Yemeni Socialist Party (YSP) and Islah in terms of which
party's candidate runs in which constituency. These are
primarily in Aden, Taiz and Sanaa. As of March 16, 8
constituencies of the regions already discussed remain
unresolved. Discussions are ongoing, and Qahtan
characterizes them as constructive. He did not give an exact
number of seats where YSP women are running for the JMP, but
said there were several.

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Comment
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7. (C) Post will continue to monitor demonstrations closely
and disseminate information on their scope and location to
the American community to ensure their safety. It is
doubtful that the comments made by certain Islah party
members regarding jihad or containing other inflammatory
language will end. The Islah party in particular will try to
use the Iraq war and U.S.-Yemeni counterterrorism cooperation
to discredit the governing General People's Congress (GPC) in
the election campaign. End Comment
HULL