Immigration: Deputy Prime Minister Fini's Bold

UNCLAS ROME 004775

SIPDIS


DOL FOR ILAB/BRUMFIELD
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/WE, INR/EUC and DRL/IL

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV ELAB IT HUMAN RIGHTS
SUBJECT: Immigration: Deputy Prime Minister Fini's Bold
Stroke

Ref: a) Milan 639; b) Rome 2948


1. (SBU) Summary: National Alliance leader Gianfranco Fini's
proposal to extend voting rights to legal immigrants has
jolted Prime Minister Berlusconi's center-right coalition,
set the chattering classes abuzz and intensified
intracoalition squabbles. Fini's gambit complicates
Berlusconi's political life and the coalition's already less-
than-smooth workings, but it endangers neither. Despite the
sharp elbows, competing agendas and flaring tempers, all the
coalition members still see more advantage to being in
government than out. Regardless of whether his proposal
survives a tortuous legislative process to emerge as law,
Fini has already scored some important gains, throwing anti-
immigrant Northern League leader Bossi off-balance; pulling
his National Alliance party further from its fascist roots;
and burnishing his own credentials within the center-right
as Berlusconi's potential successor. End Summary.

Fini's Blast.
--------------


2. (U) Fini picked an innocuous occasion -- an October 8
address to an advisory body on economic and labor policy --
to launch his bombshell. Italy should consider relaxing the
tight quotas on legal immigration established by tough new
immigration legislation (which Fini co-authored) last year,
he declared. Moreover, it was time to consider granting
voting rights to some of Italy's 2.4 million legal
immigrants, at least in local elections, Fini argued.


3. (U) Initial reaction to media reports of Fini's
initiative was shocked silence, followed by the sound of
jaws across the country hitting the floor. Reaction within
the coalition was mixed: the Union of Christian Democrats of
the Center expressed its support; Bossi and his Northern
League "praetorians" complained the loudest, ominously
warning that if Fini insisted on pursuing his proposal,
early elections were inevitable (comment: which is pretty
much Bossi's reaction to anything he disagrees with). An
irritated Berlusconi noted the proposal was not included in
the coalition's agreed platform and denied the clash of
opinions signaled new trouble within the coalition.
Opposition pols expressed their delight that Fini was
softening his stance on immigration and pledged to support
any draft legislation to codify his proposal. Initial
reaction from Fini's surprised colleagues within National
Alliance was also mixed, with some prominent party
conservatives dissenting.


4. (U) Undeterred, Fini pressed ahead, announcing that AN's
parliamentary group would begin drafting a constitutional
amendment to modify voting eligibility requirements
(although the opposition Democrats of the Left already have
tabled similar legislation). Bossi's rhetoric escalated as
well, the Northern League leader alternately threatening to
block any liberalization of immigration policy and
immediately to resign. Over the ensuing week, Berlusconi
reportedly spent substantial time talking Bossi off his
rhetorical ledge, reminding him that most of the League's
"reformist" agenda, notably regional devolution, remained
unfinished. After a week of political drama, threats and
recriminations, things quieted October 15, when Fini
clarified that the constitutional amendment would be
presented only by AN, not on behalf of the government, and
Bossi declared "enough polemics.we have serious work to do."

.had, and hit, many targets
--------------


5. (SBU) Fini's initiative, though surprising, clearly was
not impulsive. Rather, it appears calculated to advance
both short- and longer-term. Fini's aim -- successfully
completed on most counts -- was to:

-- warn Berlusconi not to take his, and AN's, support for
granted. Fini has been frustrated that AN priorities,
whether in the budget or on broader reform proposals,
consistently have taken a back seat to a convergence of
Forza Italia-Northern League interests. Fini was stung
particularly by Berlusconi's criticism of him and his party
after AN deputies' absence prompted a rare parliamentary
defeat of a GOI bill. Provisions within legislation to
liberalize Italy's communications sector (including rules on
media ownership that would have a direct impact on


Berlusconi's business holdings) failed to garner enough
votes in the Chamber and the entire bill was sent back to
the Senate. Looming in the near-future are the prospect of
a post-EU presidency cabinet shuffle, which Fini wants and
Berlusconi is resisting, and next year's elections for the
European Parliament.

-- throw Bossi off-balance. After a summer in which
Berlusconi refused to condemn (and sometimes condoned) the
Northern League leader's liberal use of bombast and
brinksmanship to force League-friendly changes to several
government initiatives, Fini goaded Bossi to reveal his
interests. In backing away from his threat to resign or
topple the government, Bossi was forced to acknowledge that
the Northern League's objectives are better served within
the coalition.

-- demonstrate his strength within AN. Despite the initial
dissent from some elements of the party, members largely
closed ranks behind Fini as he insisted on pursuing the
initiative. As a result, he has moved AN further toward the
conservative mainstream (including, longer-term, membership
in the center-right grouping within the European Parliament)
and away from the intolerance of its fascist-era roots.

-- reposition himself politically. Fini clearly is looking
ahead to the post-Berlusconi landscape. Absent a natural
successor within Forza Italia, many pundits agree that
Berlusconi's successor as leader of the center-right will be
either Fini or Chamber President Casini, a bona fide
centrist. Fini's newfound support for immigrant rights
continues a personal makeover that includes reconciliation
with Italy's Jewish community and public condemnation of
Italian fascism's abuses.

Comment
--------------


6. (SBU) Fini's initiative reverberated across the political
landscape, but any cracks it exposed in the coalition's
foundation won't topple this government. His appeal is more
interesting for the cracks it caused, or exposed, in
Italians' evolving views about immigration. The thinking
and habits of a fairly homogeneous society that places a
premium on tradition have been slow to catch up with the
reality of Italy's growing immigrant population. The draft
constitutional amendment will take a long time to emerge
from parliament, affording substantial opportunities for
Italians of all political stripes to debate the relative
costs and benefits of immigration for this rapidly aging
society. Parliamentarians' and politicos' rigid adherence
to ideological conventions probably will strip that debate
of much of its pragmatic value, but the end result still may
be a step toward fuller integration of Italy's immigrant
population. In the meantime, Fini has jumped into the
center of that conversation and, at least for now, out of
Berlusconi's shadow.

Countryman


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2003ROME04775 - Classification: UNCLASSIFIED