ITALY, IF ASKED, READY TO EXTEND IRAQ MISSION

C O N F I D E N T I A L ROME 004678

SIPDIS


CENTCOM FOR POLAD, J5

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/14/2013
TAGS: MOPS PREL IT IZ IRAQI FREEDOM
SUBJECT: ITALY, IF ASKED, READY TO EXTEND IRAQ MISSION

CLASSIFIED BY: POLITICAL MINISTER-COUNSELOR TOM COUNTRYMAN
FOR REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (C)


1. (U) DEFMIN MARTINO, SPEAKING TO THE PRESS IN NEW YORK
ON OCTOBER 11, SAID ITALY WAS CONSIDERING EXTENDING ITS
MILITARY PRESENCE IN IRAQ FOR AN ADDITIONAL SIX MONTHS. THE
ITALIAN MISSION, DUBBED ANTICA BABILONIA, WAS AUTHORIZED ON
JULY 10 BY A GOVERNMENT DECREE, WHICH PARLIAMENT SUBSEQUENTLY
APPROVED LATER IN THE MONTH. ITALY'S CURRENT DEPLOYMENT,
TOTALING 2,800 MILITARY PERSONNEL (THE THIRD LARGEST
COALITION MILITARY FORCE IN IRAQ),HAS FUNDING THROUGH
DECEMBER 31.


2. (U) MARTINO ON OCTOBER 12, PRESSED FOR A CLARIFICATION
BY AN ITALIAN NEWS REPORTER, SAID THAT EVEN THOUGH ITALY HAD
NOT DECIDED TO EXTEND ANTICA BABILONIA, IT WAS REASONABLE TO
EXPECT THE USG TO MAKE SUCH A REQUEST. HE ADDED THAT, IF
ASKED, ITALY WOULD NOT BE ABLE TO REFUSE ITS CLOSE ALLY.
MARTINO ALSO GUARANTEED THAT AN EVENTUAL DECISION TO EXTEND
THE MISSION WOULD BE "BROUGHT BEFORE PARLIAMENT", WITHOUT
SPECIFYING WHETHER THE GOVERNMENT WOULD PUT THE MATTER TO A
VOTE.


3. (SBU) MARTINO'S COMMENTS ELICITED A CONFUSED RESPONSE
FROM THE OPPOSITION CENTER-LEFT. THE MORE EXTREME PARTIES
(REFOUNDED COMMUNISTS, ITALIAN COMMUNISTS, AND GREENS) URGED
AN IMMEDIATE WITHDRAWAL OF ITALIAN FORCES FROM IRAQ, WHILE
OTHERS (DEMOCRATS OF THE LEFT, DAISY, AND ITALIAN SOCIALISTS)
INDICATED THAT ITALIAN FORCES COULD REMAIN AFTER DECEMBER 31,
BUT ONLY UNDER A UN MANDATE. NOTE: BECAUSE A FOLLOW-ON
MISSION WOULD REQUIRE APPROXIMATELY 200-250 MILLION EUROS IN
NEW FUNDING, IT WOULD BE DIFFICULT FOR THE GOVERNMENT TO
AVOID ASKING PARLIAMENT FOR EXPLICIT APPROVAL. REGARDLESS,
STRONG CROSS-PARTY SUPPORT FOR ANTICA BABILONIA WITHIN THE
CENTER-RIGHT COALITION WOULD LIKELY ENSURE THE GOVERNMENT A
FAVORABLE OUTCOME. END NOTE.


4. (C) COMMENT: MARTINO DOES NOT EXPECT AN IMMEDIATE
INDICATION OF U.S. NEEDS IN IRAQ. HOWEVER, IT APPEARS THAT
THROUGH HIS PUBLIC COMMENTS HE IS ASKING THE USG TO DECIDE IN
A TIMELY MANNER WHETHER TO ASK ITALY FOR AN EXTENSION, AND TO
COMMUNICATE ANY DECISION DIRECTLY TO HIM. MARTINO'S
REFERENCE TO "SIX-MONTHS" WAS ALMOST CERTAINLY MEANT TO
CONVEY THAT SUCH A LENGTH OF TIME WOULD BE POLITICALLY
OPTIMAL. WE ASSUME THAT OUR MILITARY PLANNERS ARE EVALUATING
POST DECEMBER 31 COALITION REQUIREMENTS. WE ENCOURAGE THEM
TO MAKE A NEAR-TERM RECOMMENDATION ON HOW ITALY CAN BEST
CONTRIBUTE TO IRAQ'S STABILIZATION SO THAT WE CAN CONVEY A
FORMAL REQUEST TO MARTINO AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. END COMMMENT.

SEMBLER

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2003ROME04678 - Classification: CONFIDENTIAL