ITALY'S EU PRESIDENCY - THE WAY AHEAD ON BELARUS

C O N F I D E N T I A L ROME 004230

SIPDIS


DEPT FOR EUR/ERA, EUR/UMB, AND EUR/WE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/17/2013
TAGS: PREL PHUM BO IT EUN
SUBJECT: ITALY'S EU PRESIDENCY - THE WAY AHEAD ON BELARUS

REF: STATE 259322

CLASSIFIED BY: POL MINISTER COUNSELOR TOM COUNTRYMAN. REASON: 1.5 (B)(
D)


1. (C) ON SEPTEMBER 16, MFA NIS DESK OFFICER LORENZO ORTONA
CONFIRMED TO POLOFF THAT THE DRAFT US-EU STATEMENT ON BELARUS
WE PROVIDED TO THE PRESIDENCY WAS DISCUSSED AT THE SEPTEMBER
12 PSC IN BRUSSELS. ORTONA SAID THAT WHILE ITALY AND THE
OTHER MEMBER STATES AGREED WITH THE SUBSTANCE OF THE DRAFT,
THEY DID NOT CONCUR ON US PROPOSED TIMING FOR RELEASING THE
STATEMENT.


2. (C) ORTONA SAID THAT CONSENSUS AT THE PSC FORMED AROUND A
PLAN TO WAIT, IN ORDER TO GIVE A RECENT EU DEMARCHE DELIVERED
IN MINSK (EXPRESSING CONCERN OVER THE LACK OF PROGRESS ON THE
STEP-BY-STEP/BENCHMARK INITIATIVES) A CHANCE TO SINK IN WITH
THE LUKASHENKO REGIME. THE EU ALSO WANTS TO WAIT UNTIL THERE
ARE CLEARER SIGNALS WHETHER LUKASHENKO WILL CALL A REFERENDUM
ON HIS OWN POLITICAL FUTURE. WHEN THE EU IS SATISFIED THE
TIMING IS RIGHT, THE REF A TEXT CAN BE USED ALMOST AS
DRAFTED, PREDICTED ORTONA.
SEMBLER

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2003ROME04230 - Classification: CONFIDENTIAL