LIBYAN REFERENCE IN US-EU PROLIFERATION STATEMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L ROME 002763

SIPDIS


DEPT FOR NP AND EUR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/18/2013
TAGS: KNNP PARM PREL IT LY EU EUN
SUBJECT: LIBYAN REFERENCE IN US-EU PROLIFERATION STATEMENT

REF: STATE 171136

CLASSIFIED BY: ACTING POL MC JOHN BASS, REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D)


1. THIS MESSAGE CONTAINS AN ACTION REQUEST FOR NP. PLEASE
SEE PARA 4.


2. (C) THE BERLUSCONI GOVERNMENT BELIEVES QADAFFI HAS "CHOSEN
THE PATH OF REINTEGRATION" INTO THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY
AND WAS TAKING IMPORTANT STEPS IN THAT DIRECTION, THE PRIME
MINISTER'S DEPUTY DIPLOMATIC ADVISOR, GIANPAOLO SCARANTE,
TOLD US JUNE 18. ITALY WAS NOT OPPOSED IN PRINCIPLE TO
INCLUDING A REFERENCE TO LIBYA IN A US-EU PROLIFERATION
STATEMENT; EXPERTS COULD WORK OUT THE DETAILS IN NORMAL
CHANNELS. SCARANTE ACKNOWLEDGED THAT QADAFFI'S WMD AND
MISSILE ACQUISITION PROGRAMS HAD NOT BEEN DISMANTLED ("OTHER
PATHS STILL EXIST") BUT SAID HE WAS UNAWARE OF ANY SPECIFIC
INFORMATION ON THEIR CONTINUED ACTIVITIES. SCARANTE MIRRORED
WASHINGTON DCM STEFANINI'S REFTEL COMMENTS IN ENCOURAGING THE
U.S. TO PROVIDE MORE DETAILED INFORMATION. HE REITERATED THE
PRIME MINISTER'S ASSESSMENT, BASED ON HIS DIRECT CONTACTS,
THAT QADAFFI IS COMMITTED TO LIBYA'S REINTEGRATION AND
WORKING TOWARD THAT GOAL.


3. WE ALSO PROVIDED THE POINTS TO MFA LIBYA OFFICE DIRECTOR
BELLAVIA AND NONPROLIFERATION EXPERT SARDI, NEITHER OF WHOM
HAD IMMEDIATE COMMENTS THAT WENT BEYOND BELLAVIA'S JUNE 16
COMMENTS (REF B) THAT A HARD PUSH ON NONPRO NOW WOULD REDUCE
THE LIKELIHOOD OF QADAFFI ABANDONING LIBYA'S UNSC BID.


4. COMMENT AND ACTION REQUEST: WE THINK SCARANTE'S COMMENTS,
TOGETHER WITH STEFANINI'S, REFLECT AN ITALIAN GOVERNMENT
CALCULATION THAT THWARTING LIBYA'S UNSC MEMBERSHIP BID IS THE
USG'S MAIN PRIORITY ON LIBYA. HIS SUGGESTION THAT ITALY IS
NOT OPPOSED IN PRINCIPLE TO A LIBYA REFERENCE IN THE NONPRO
STATEMENT IS PROBABLY MORE A BAIT-AND-SWITCH BACK TO THE MFA
THAN IT IS A REAL OPENING. THE ITALIANS WON'T PUSH FOR A
REFERENCE TO LIBYA, BUT WE DON'T THINK THEY WILL WANT TO BE
ISOLATED WITHIN THE EU-15 IN OPPOSING ONE. ANY ADDITIONAL
SPECIFIC INFORMATION WASHINGTON AGENCIES COULD PROVIDE ABOUT
THE CONTINUED ACTIVITIES OF LIBYA'S WMD AND MISSILE
ACQUISITION PROGRAMS -- ESPECIALLY ACTIVITIES COINCIDENT WITH
QADDAFI'S CURRENT REINTEGRATION CHARM OFFENSIVE -- WILL HELP,
BUT ABSENT COMPELLING SPECIFIC EVIDENCE IS UNLIKELY TO CARRY
THE DAY. ACTION REQUEST FOR NP: PLEASE PROVIDE ANY SPECIFIC
INTELLIGENCE-DERIVED INFORMATION REGARDING THE ACQUISITION
PROGRAMS' RECENT ACTIVITIES THAT WE COULD SHARE WITH SCARANTE
AND OTHERS. END ACTION REQUEST.
SEMBLER

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2003ROME02763 - Classification: CONFIDENTIAL