ETHIOPIA-ERITREA HUMANITARIAN CRISIS DISCUSSIONS

UNCLAS ROME 002714

SIPDIS


AIDAC

FROM U.S. MISSION IN ROME

SENSITIVE

STATE FOR AS/AF, AS/PRM, PRM/P, EUR/WE, EUR/NE AND IO/EDA
USAID FOR A/AID, AA/DCHA, AA/AFR, DCHA/FFP LANDIS, PPC/DP,
PPC/DC
USDA/FAS FOR CHAMBLISS/TILSWORTH/GAINOR
GENEVA FOR RMA AND NKYLOH/USAID
NAIROBI FOR REFCOORD
BRUSSELS FOR USAID PLERNER AND PRM REP
USUN FOR MLUTZ
NSC FOR JDWORKEN
OMB FOR TSTOLL

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EAID EAGR AORC PREF KUNR WFP UN
SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA-ERITREA HUMANITARIAN CRISIS DISCUSSIONS
ON THE MARGINS OF THE WORLD FOOD PROGRAM EXECUTIVE BOARDS,
ROME, MAY 28-JUNE 3, 2003

SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY.
NOT SUITABLE FOR INTERNET POSTING.

--------------
SUMMARY
--------------

1. (U) The growing threat of possible famine in Ethiopia and
Eritrea was discussed on a number of occasions on the
margins of the just concluded WFP Board sessions May 28-June
3, most notably in a lunch hosted by WFP Executive Director
Morris on June 2 attended by the United States, European
Commission, United Kingdom, Canada, Germany, Italy, the
Netherlands, and Eritrea. Despite generous donor
contributions, substantial shortfalls continue to exist as
both countries start into the "long hungry season." End
summary.

--------------
WFP luncheon on June 2
--------------


2. (U) WFP Executive Director Jim Morris hosted, at USDEL's
request, a luncheon at WFP on June 2 attended by the United
States, European Commission, United Kingdom, Canada,
Germany, Italy, The Netherlands, and Eritrea (Ethiopia was
invited but missed the lunch due to an act of the Roman
gods).


3. (SBU) Morris began the discussion by saying he plans to
appoint a WFP special representative for the region, along
the lines of Judith Lewis' role in southern Africa this past
year. He also noted that WFP had recently issued a
new Emergency Operation EMOP (April 2003-March 2004) for
Ethiopia covering 4.6 million of an estimated 12.5 million
people at risk (40 percent). Meanwhile, the gap between
pledges and actual resources has required WFP to reduce
rations from 15 kg to 12.5 kg per person - a slow-starvation
diet - as malnutrition rates continue to climb. Even if all
the pledges are immediately fulfilled, the pipeline is
expected to approach the breaking point in August. WFP has
had to borrow from Ethiopia's emergency reserve stocks,
which are now precariously low and must be reimbursed.


4. (SBU) Ethiopia has eclipsed an even worse situation in
Eritrea, where the needs are immense, WFP has no carry-over
stocks, and where EMOP coverage has been reduced from the
planned 738,450 to 400,000 beneficiaries, at 60 percent
rations. The new EMOP for Eritrea (May 2003-end February
2004) to cover 899,000 beneficiaries, is looking at a
shortfall of 87,110 metric tons which will need to arrive as
early as July. WFP is shifting some resources from its
school feeding programs, as families abandon villages and
trek in search of aid. Two regions are entirely without
water, which according to WFP is scarcer and a bigger
problem than food. Morris continued that during his visit
to the region, he saw a dramatic difference between villages
which had received even modest development assistance and
those which had not, in terms of their ability to cope with
the drought. He noted that Ethiopia and Eritrea are among

the largest recipients of relief aid and among the lowest
for development. He added that the UN SYG would raise at
the G-8 summit the need to mobilize a rapid and large
response for the region. Morris said that Ethiopia and
Eritrea are his top priority. Note: It was pointed out that
Eritrea has not permitted food-for-work activities since
1996 and that DANIDA (Denmark) had withdrawn its development
support to Eritrea's agricultural sector. End note.


5. (SBU) Ambassador Tony Hall welcomed Morris' comments and
added that in his meeting earlier that day with Secretary
Powell, he advised that the current crisis in the Horn
appears to be as devastating as the famine of 1984. The
Ambassador mentioned a proposal by Congressman Frank Wolf
that the UN designate a special representative to mobilize
an immediate and effective response. (The UK ambassador
Anthony Beattie later noted that Irish rock musician Bob
Geldof was again playing a prominent advocacy role for the
Horn as he had previously done in 1984-85). Hall said that
WFP appeared to be the only UN agency focused on responding
to an enormous humanitarian crisis and that greater
attention and involvement of the other UN relief agencies,
as well as international donors, was needed now. DCHA/FFP
Director Lauren Landis said that a USAID-funded nutritional
survey/study to be released on June 6 indicated that there
is, indeed, "a (potential) famine on our watch." Coping
mechanisms are so exhausted and donor response has been so
inadequate thus far, that she advised WFP may wish to
consider revising upwards the total population at risk in
Ethiopia from 12.5 to 14.4 million people.


6. (SBU) As donors did a tour de table, many complained that
too few structural changes had been taken after the drought
in the Horn in 2000. WFP's Judith Lewis and Manuel Aranda
da Silva (WFP's Regional Manager for West Africa) countered
that even under the best of circumstances, such changes
would have required more than three years to prevent the
recurrence of such a crisis in a region with neither the
time nor the means to recover from successive natural
disasters. Along with Morris, the Ambassador, and Landis,
they re-focused the discussion on responding to the
immediate needs and mitigating a potential famine.


7. (U) Later on June 2, the WFP Executive Board also noted a
statement (submitted by the United States) calling upon
donors to fulfill their pledges and provide additional
resources for the emergency in Ethiopia and Eritrea. Morris
stressed these same points in both the Executive Board
meetings and the Resource Consultations with donors on June

3.

-------------- --------------
Text of U.S. Statement submitted to the Executive Board on
June 2 which will be incorporated in the Summary of the Work
of the Second Regular Session of the Executive Board, 2003
-------------- --------------


8. (U) Begin text of resolution:

(U) The Executive Board of WFP wants to express its sincere

concern about the critical situation in the Horn of Africa.
Given the pictures we have seen and the reports we have
heard, we are seized with the reality that famine is again
threatening people throughout Ethiopia and Eritrea.
(U) As expressed in the Common Appeals Process, there are 12-
14 million people threatened with starvation in Ethiopia and
1.5 million in Eritrea. Now more than ever, the world must
realize the importance of taking immediate action in order
to save lives. While we are familiar with the specter of
famine in this region of the world, we must not let our
consciences become tired of responding to those in need.

(U) We commend the World Food Programme for acting to feed
almost eight million people, especially given the pressing
needs elsewhere. While we recognize that there are many
hungry people throughout the world and that we cannot
neglect them, we see the crisis in the Horn of Africa as our
top priority at this time.

(U) We urge the entire UN system and donor governments -
both old and new, big and small - to recognize the magnitude
and severity of the situation. We recognize the need to
work together, especially when the immediate crisis has
passed, in order to prevent this situation in the future.
While our response to the threat of famine has improved, it
still needs to be strengthened in order to guarantee that
famine will never again threaten the Horn of Africa or
elsewhere. Our moral duty demands no less.

(U) End text of resolution. Note: The Summary of Work is
under circulation and will be formally endorsed by the Board
at its next formal session. End note.

-------------- -
Operational discussions in USDEL side meetings
-------------- -

9 (U) In an earlier, separate meeting, WFP Central and East
Africa Regional Director Holdbrook Arthur confirmed that the
U.S. has covered 33 percent of the new EMOP for Ethiopia but
unmet needs to date amount to another 200,000 MT. He
indicated that WFP has one-third of what it needs for
Eritrea, where the new EMOP is 87,110 mts short. The
Protracted Relief and Recovery Operation (PRRO) (January
2003-December 2004) is under funded to the tune of 83,050
mts.


10. (SBU) Holdbrook commented that WFP's Early Warning
Matrix acknowledges that previous assessments had
underestimated food aid needs in many parts of Ethiopia and
notes that the U.S. and some other donors believe there is
the potential for famine, with the peak of requirements from
April to June. Meanwhile, floods in the Somali region of
Gode have led to 100,000 people requiring immediate
emergency assistance.


11. (U) According to an EC press release issued from Addis
Ababa on May 26, the EC delivered 94,000 MT to Ethiopia in
the period February 2003-end-May 2003, versus 407,250 MT

pledged for the year 2003. The press release included a
delivery schedule for 212,500 MT to arrive end May-end
August, as follows: 55,000 mts in May through Djibouti;
30,000 mts in June through Djibouti and 25,000 mts through
Berbera; 62,500 mts in July through Djibouti and 25,000 mts
through Berbera; and 15,000 mts in August through Berbera.
This information was confirmed separately by FFP. Note: The
EC shipments include cargoes for the GFDRE/DPPC, NGOs, ICRC
and WFP. End note.


12. (SBU) According to WFP's Arthur, the WFP Ethiopia
pipeline will likely break in August, and there is presently
a serious shortfall of blended foods needed to prevent
malnutrition among children under five. He confirmed that
distributions of blended foods had been inadequate in the
first half of 2003. Arthur added that there is a 300,000
metric ton shortfall for Ethiopia to cover needs through
December.


13. (SBU) Arthur also indicated that rations to refugees in
Ethiopia will probably be cut, including those for the
repatriation of 25,000 Somalis. He could not answer
State/PRM's questions about the substantive number of
refugees and conflict victims dropped from the Eritrea PRRO
10192.0, e.g., the criteria used, any provisions for another
donor to help this caseload, etc. PRM made its
dissatisfaction clear and requested WFP to follow up
immediately.

--------------
Comment
--------------


14. (SBU) Clearly considerable additional work needs to be
done now to avert the humanitarian crisis in Ethiopia and
Eritrea from further spinning out of control. While
remaining firmly committed to long-term "solutions," we need
to intensify our focus on saving lives today. Hall
NNNN
2003ROME02714 - Classification: UNCLASSIFIED