Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
03ROME2674
2003-06-13 06:45:00
UNCLASSIFIED
Embassy Rome
Cable title:  

ITALY'S LOCAL ELECTIONS: BERLUSCONI COALITION

Tags:  PGOV IT ITALIAN POLITICS 
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UNCLAS ROME 002674 

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV IT ITALIAN POLITICS
SUBJECT: ITALY'S LOCAL ELECTIONS: BERLUSCONI COALITION
BRUISED, BUT STILL STANDING

REF: ROME 2067

UNCLAS ROME 002674

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV IT ITALIAN POLITICS
SUBJECT: ITALY'S LOCAL ELECTIONS: BERLUSCONI COALITION
BRUISED, BUT STILL STANDING

REF: ROME 2067


1. This is a joint Mission Italy cable.


2. SUMMARY: While no victory for the governing center-
right coalition, Italy's local elections do not signal
the imminent demise of the Berlusconi Government. The
outcome offers a lesson, if one were needed, that in
coalition politics, unity counts: The coalition that
holds itself together best wins. The corollary is that
good-quality candidates are also important. Results will
cause short-term disharmony within the coalition, but are
unlikely to prompt permanent fractures. They have also
at least temporarily energized a center-left heretofore
characterized by messy public disunity, although it will
continue to face significant challenges stitching
together the kind of wide coalition -- including at least
elements of the far-left Communist Renewal -- needed to
return to power. The elections are above all local,
without major implications for the next national campaign
or Italy's upcoming EU Presidency. Nonetheless, they may
reflect dissatisfaction on the part of some center-right
or swing voters with slow Government progress to meet its
2001 campaign pledges. E1ND SUMMARY.


3. Italy's local elections ended on June 8-9 with run-
off contests for the May 25-26 balloting and single-round
elections in the autonomous regions of Valle d'Aosta and
Friuli Venezia Giulia (reftel). The results are being
billed in the local media as a defeat for Prime Minister
Berlusconi's center-right coalition, with even pro-
government Berlusconi-family-owned "Il Giornale"
headlining "The Center-Right Succeeded in Losing." The
center-right indeed took a hit, but a very brief abstract
of the numbers does not suggest devastation. Indeed, as
the Forza Italia (FI) Chamber of Deputies party whip Elio
Vito (and subsequently many others in the coalition)
pointed out, the center-right actually obtained almost
one million more votes than the center-left.
_______________________________

-- Of 12 races for provincial president, seven went to
the center-left, and five to the center-right, a gain of
one (Rome) for the center-left.

-- In mayoral races in nine provincial capital cities,
five went to the center-left, and four to the center-
right, again a gain of one for the center-left. (Note:
This is far from a scientific sample of results of the
495 city council races up for grabs, but in our view, it
highlights the races which are somewhat more

significant.)

-- The center right lost the regional presidency in
Friuli Venezia Giulia.

-- Union Valdotaine won the Valle D'Aosta regional
presidency. Union Valdotaine is a local-issues party
whose parliamentarians occasionally side with the center-
left, but the race is not reflective of national inter-
coalition balance.


4. A major factor contributing to sensational headlines
-- and admission within the Berlusconi coalition of the
need to step back and review results with an eye to what
went wrong -- is the loss of the two highest profile
races in overwhelmingly lackluster elections -- Rome
province and Friuli Venezia Giulia region. Both losses
highlight the main lessons of the elections: A winning
coalition must be united and should choose its candidates
carefully. In Rome Province, the story is less that the
center-right lost than that its victory in 1996 was
something of a miracle. (Rome historically votes left.)
The coalition's victory in 1996 and defeat this year can
be attributed in large part to its cohesion in the former
and its lack thereof in the latter elections. (A similar
picture emerged in Sicily.) With this loss confirmed
after the May 25-26 first round, the coalition's second-
largest member, National Alliance (AN, Deputy Prime
Minister Fini's party),of which the losing regional
president was a member, was in the lead calling for a
coalition review. In Friuli, Umberto Bossi's Northern
League pushed for, and obtained, coalition backing for
its candidate, Alessandra Guerra, rather than sticking
with the incumbent regional president. (As in the U.S.,
incumbents have a distinct advantage in Italian local
elections.) The center-left ran the well-known former
Mayor of Trieste (and coffee magnate; his name appears on
cafes and coffee packages throughout Italy) Riccardo
Illy. Illy won -- and Bossi's League is for the moment
out-shouting AN in its calls for a coalition powwow.



5. The significance of the electoral results should not
be overemphasized. Given the limited weight of local
elections, it would be wrong to view this as a center-
left breakthrough -- although it would be equally wrong
to deny the center-left its moment of glory for
maintaining coalition cohesion. Historically the left,
with a disciplined party base, performs better in run-off
elections, which center-right voters tend to skip. The
left is generally stronger in local elections, as well,
thanks to the same disciplined base and a tendency to
have stronger candidates at the local level -- probably a
chicken and egg phenomenon. It is harder for the
disparate elements of the left and center to come
together on national issues -- reform of labor codes and
upcoming Article 18 referendum (septel) are examples.


6. It makes sense for the center-right to use the set-
back as impetus to reconsider the coalition and its
future. While Claudio Scajola, FI election coordinator
and former Interior Minister, said these were "local
elections with many local factors," Union of Christian
Democrats of the Center (UDC) leader Marco Follini
admitted that the loss "indicates difficulty (within the
coalition). There's no need to beat around the bush; we
need to discuss (the situation) with calm." Besides the
obvious cracks in the coalition -- AN accusing the League
of lack of support in Rome; the League hinting at AN
betrayal in Friuli Venezia Giulia and Bossi again
threatening to withdraw; UDC and AN claiming a greater
voice based on their attractiveness at the polls -- there
are also signs that dissatisfaction with the GOI's
progress in fulfilling 2001 campaign pledges
(particularly pocketbook issues of economic reform and
tax cuts) may have dimmed the enthusiasm of center-right
voters. The center-right has plenty to discuss, and some
of the debates may be noisy and public. We predict,
however, that the coalition will not fracture, discipline
will be restored -- and the coalition will hold. The
only potential impact on Italy's EU Presidency would be
to give economic reform issues, if the GOI concurs that
frustration with the pace of reform was a factor in its
poor showing.


7. One winner of the elections is Communist Renewal (RC)
and its leader, Fausto Bertinotti. Given the imperative
for a tight coalition and a simple analysis of the
numbers, it should be clear to the center-left that it
cannot win nationally unless it attracts at least some of
the far-left voters Bertinotti represents. Italian media
are already highlighting center-left efforts to court RC
with a view to national elections. Its success in doing
so without alienating centrist voters, and its subsequent
ability to act cohesively, will be crucial to any hopes
the center-left coalition has of unseating Berlusconi.
Meanwhile, we still expect the next national elections to
be held in 2006.
SKODON
NNNN
2003ROME02674 - Classification: UNCLASSIFIED