Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
03ROME244
2003-01-21 13:33:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Rome
Cable title:  

ITALY: DPRK; AFGHAN TRADE AND INVESTMENT;

Tags:  PREL PARM PHUM ECON ETRD KN AF PK IT 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.


 CONFIDENTIAL 

PAGE 02 ROME 00244 01 OF 02 211403Z
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ROME 000244 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/16/2013
TAGS: PREL PARM PHUM ECON ETRD KN AF PK PARM PHUM ECON ETRD KN AF PK IT ITPREL
SUBJECT: ITALY: DPRK; AFGHAN TRADE AND INVESTMENT;
PAKISTAN'S FUTURE

REF: A. STATE 1211

B. ROME 26 (NOTAL)

CLASSIFIED BY: DCM EMIL SKODON, REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ROME 000244

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/16/2013
TAGS: PREL PARM PHUM ECON ETRD KN AF PK PARM PHUM ECON ETRD KN AF PK IT ITPREL
SUBJECT: ITALY: DPRK; AFGHAN TRADE AND INVESTMENT;
PAKISTAN'S FUTURE

REF: A. STATE 1211

B. ROME 26 (NOTAL)

CLASSIFIED BY: DCM EMIL SKODON, REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: MFA OFFICIALS ASSURED CHARGE THAT THE GOI
WOULD PURSUE NO INITIATIVE ON THE DPRK, INCLUDING THE IDEA OF
"HUMANITARIAN" OIL SHIPMENTS, WITHOUT OUR CONCURRENCE AND
COLLABORATION. CHARGE ALSO SOUGHT REACTION TO REF A REQUEST
FOR INFORMATION ON TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE IN TRADE TO
AFGHANISTAN, DISCUSSED PAKISTAN'S FUTURE, AND CONSIDERED
REFORM OF THE UN HUMAN RIGHTS COMMISSION (SEPTEL). END
SUMMARY.

--------------
DPRK AND HUMANITARIAN OIL SHIPMENTS
--------------

2. (C) CHARGE MET MFA DIRECTOR GENERAL FOR ASIA GUIDO
MARTINI (FORMERLY ITALY'S AMBASSADOR TO SEOUL) AND UNDER
SECRETARY FOR ASIA AND HUMAN RIGHTS MARGHERITA BONIVER IN

SIPDIS
SEPARATE COURTESY CALLS JANUARY 13. THE GOI'S RECENT
PROPOSAL TO OFFER "HUMANITARIAN" OIL SHIPMENTS TO NORTH KOREA
(REF B) WAS A PRIMARY TOPIC OF CONVERSATION IN BOTH MEETINGS,
AND BOTH MARTINI AND BONIVER ASSURED CHARGE THAT ITALY WOULD
DO NOTHING WITHOUT USG CONCURRENCE AND COLLABORATION. IT
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PAGE 03 ROME 00244 01 OF 02 211403Z
APPEARED THE IDEA HAD BEEN MARTINI'S WHILE BONIVER WAS AWAY
FROM ITALY ON HOLIDAY LEAVE; SHE QUASHED THE INITIATIVE UPON
HER RETURN, TELLING CHARGE THE IDEA OF AN INDIVIDUAL ITALIAN
ROLE IN NORTH KOREA WAS "TOTALLY WRONG." THE GOI SHOULD NOT
MAKE SUCH A PROPOSAL WITHOUT COORDINATING IT WITH THE U.S. IN
ADVANCE; "IT WOULD BE ALL BUT FATAL TO SEND MIXED SIGNALS."
THE ITALIANS, HOWEVER, REMAIN INTERESTED IN COOPERATING WITH

THE USG ON KOREA AND WOULD LIKE TO BE USEFUL, IF THE U.S.
THOUGHT THE OIL SHIPMENTS OR ANY OTHER INITIATIVE COULD HELP
MOVE THE SITUATION WITH THE DPRK FORWARD. NOTING THAT
WASHINGTON HAD NOT OVERALL PROVIDED GUIDANCE DIRECTLY ON THE
OIL PROPOSAL, CHARGE ADVISED HIS INTERLOCUTORS THAT NOW WAS
NOT THE TIME FOR ANY INITIATIVE WHICH COULD BE PERCEIVED AS
REWARDING PYONGYANG'S BAD BEHAVIOR.


3. (C) MARTINI REVEALED THAT THE GOI HAD DISCUSSED THE
PROPOSAL WITH ITS EU PARTNERS (COMMENT: PRESUMABLY BEFORE
BONIVER'S RETURN),AND REPORTED THAT EUROPE WAS "AMAZINGLY
DIVIDED" ON THE PROPOSAL. THE UK AND FRANCE ARE STRONGLY
OPPOSED; MARTINI SAID FRENCH PRESIDENT CHIRAC "PERSONALLY
REJECTS" ANY APPROACH TO NORTH KOREA. THE DANES AND DUTCH
ARE ONLY SLIGHTLY LESS OPPOSED. HE DESCRIBED THE FRG AND
SPAIN AS BEING "AGAINST BUT OPEN," AND CHARACTERIZED ITALY,
SWEDEN, FINLAND AND THE EU COMMISSION AS BEING "OPEN TO
FINDING A SOLUTION OR HUMANITARIAN GESTURE TOWARD THE NORTH."
HE UNDERSCORED THAT IN ANY EVENT, THE GOI WANTED TO MOVE IN
ACCORDANCE WITH THE U.S. THAT WOULD ALSO MAKE IT EASIER TO
FIND CONSENSUS WITHIN THE EU. MARTINI EXPLAINED THAT PRIME
MINISTER BERLUSCONI AND FOREIGN MINISTER FRATTINI WOULD LIKE
TO SEE ITALY TAKE THE INITIATIVE TO HELP THE U.S. REACH A
SOLUTION IN KOREA. HE WAS CONVINCED, HOWEVER, THAT THE
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 04 ROME 00244 01 OF 02 211403Z
SOLUTION LAY BETWEEN THE U.S. AND THE DPRK. "IF YOU THINK WE
CAN BE USEFUL, GIVE US A SIGN."


4. (C) MARTINI SAID REPEATEDLY THAT FINDING A POLITICAL
SOLUTION WAS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE WHEN DEALING WITH AN
"UNPREDICTABLE OUTCAST" LIKE THE DPRK. EVEN AFTER FOUR YEARS
IN SEOUL, HE FINDS THE NORTH KOREANS COMPLETELY
UNPREDICTABLE. THE NORTH KOREANS, HE FUMED, USE BEHAVIOR
WHICH IS COMPLETELY AT ODDS WITH THEIR AIMS, AND IT SEEMS
IMPOSSIBLE TO CONVINCE THEM TO CHANGE. NONETHELESS, HE
REMAINED CONVINCED PYONGYANG "WANTS A DIRECT RELATIONSHIP"
WITH THE U.S., DISCUSSIONS, AND "REASSURANCE." HE THOUGHT IT
LIKELY THE DPRK MIGHT EVENTUALLY REQUEST A SEPARATE PEACE
TREATY WITH THE U.S. AT THE EXPENSE OF SOUTH KOREA. HE ALSO
BELIEVED THE DPRK WANTED DIALOGUE WITH THE SOUTH, BUT THOUGHT
INTERACTION WITH THE U.S. WAS MORE IMPORTANT.


5. (C) CHARGE ASKED MARTINI WHY, IF WHAT IT WANTED WAS
DIALOGUE WITH THE U.S., THE DPRK HAD INTERRUPTED THE PROCESS
THAT PROVIDED FOR DIALOGUE. "I SAID THEY WERE
UNPREDICTABLE," MARTINI REPLIED. HE OPINED, HOWEVER, THAT IF
THE U.S. WERE TO ESTABLISH POLITICAL AND DIPLOMATIC RELATIONS
WITH THE NORTH AND "SETTLE PROBLEMS WITH THEM ONCE AND FOR
ALL," IT MIGHT HELP -- ALTHOUGH THEY WILL ALWAYS BE
UNPREDICTABLE, HE ADDED. THE IDEA OF A NON-AGGRESSION PACT
IS LUDICROUS TO THE WEST, BUT WITH NORTH KOREA, IT MIGHT
HELP. THEN, MARTINI SUGGESTED, PROVIDE FURTHER ASSISTANCE
ECONOMICALLY AND SOCIALLY, HELP FOR THE STARVING POPULATION.

CONFIDENTIAL

CONFIDENTIAL PTQ6598

PAGE 01 ROME 00244 02 OF 02 211403Z
ACTION EUR-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AGRE-00 AID-00 AMAD-00 CEA-01 CIAE-00
COME-00 CTME-00 INL-00 C-00 USNW-00 DODE-00 DOEE-00
DOTE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EAP-00 EB-00 EXIM-01 E-00
FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-00 FRB-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00
IO-00 ITC-01 LAB-01 L-00 CAC-00 VCE-00 M-00
AC-01 NEA-00 NRRC-00 NSAE-00 NSCE-00 OCS-03 OES-00
OIC-02 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00
P-00 SCT-00 SP-00 IRM-00 SSO-00 SS-00 STR-00
TRSE-00 T-00 USIE-00 SA-00 R-00 SSD-00 PMB-00
DSCC-00 PRM-00 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 SWCI-00
/015W
-------------- 28F3A9 211404Z /38
P 211333Z JAN 03
FM AMEMBASSY ROME
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7770
INFO EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
AMEMBASSY BEIJING
AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD
AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
AMEMBASSY SEOUL
AMEMBASSY TOKYO
AMCONSUL FLORENCE
AMCONSUL MILAN
AMCONSUL NAPLES
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 ROME 00244 02 OF 02 211403Z
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 ROME 000244

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/16/2013
TAGS: PREL PARM PHUM ECON ETRD KN AF PK PARM PHUM ECON ETRD KN AF PK IT ITPREL
SUBJECT: ITALY: DPRK; AFGHAN TRADE AND INVESTMENT;
PAKISTAN'S FUTURE

MARTINI SHARED HIS CONVICTION THAT THE U.S. SHOULD RESOLVE
THE SITUATION WITH KOREA, AND THE SOLUTION SHOULD BE
IMMEDIATELY CONFIRMED AT AN INTERNATIONAL FORUM. "REMEMBER,
CHINA AND RUSSIA ARE WITH YOU ON ALMOST ALL POINTS." HE
REPEATED THAT THE PROSPECT OF A DIRECT SOLUTION AND STABILITY
MIGHT WIN OVER THE DPRK.


6. (C) CHARGE NOTED U.S. FRUSTRATION THAT, WHILE WE WERE
WILLING TO PROVIDE ECONOMIC ASSISTANCE IN THE FUTURE, TO
TALK, TO HAVE A MORE NORMAL RELATIONSHIP WITH THE DPRK, NORTH
KOREA SEEMED TO BELIEVE IT WOULD ONLY BE REWARDED IF IT
BEHAVED BADLY. THE SECRETARY WAS CONVINCED IT WAS VITAL TO
REVERSE THIS "NEGATIVE PROGRESSION" AND PROVE TO THE NORTH
THAT SUCH BEHAVIOR WOULD BRING COSTS, NOT REWARDS. CHARGE
ADDED THAT IT WAS IMPORTANT TO BE REALISTIC IN OUR
EXPECTATIONS, RECOGNIZING THAT WE CANNOT SATISFY ALL OF NORTH
KOREA'S. THE USG, INCLUDING THE SECRETARY, HAS MADE CLEAR
THAT IF THE DPRK REVERSES SOME OF ITS ACTIONS, THE U.S. IS
OPEN TO DIALOGUE AND TO A RESOLUTION. THE U.S. CANNOT REWARD
UNREASONABLE DEMANDS; IT IS UP TO NORTH KOREA TO GET BACK
INTO THE GAME. "IN SOME WAYS," MARTINI REPLIED, "SOLVING THE
SITUATION IN IRAQ IS EASIER THAN SOLVING THE SITUATION IN
NORTH KOREA."


7. (C) BONIVER ASKED CHARGE ABOUT THE DPRK VISIT TO FORMER
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PAGE 03 ROME 00244 02 OF 02 211403Z
GOVERNOR/ENERGY SECRETARY BILL RICHARDSON. CHARGE STRESSED
THAT THIS WAS A PERSONAL INVITATION AND NOT A BACK CHANNEL
FOR THE USG, ALTHOUGH RICHARDSON WOULD LIKELY SHARE ANY
INFORMATION OR IMPRESSIONS HE GAINED. THE U.S. CONTINUED TO
SEEK GREATER CLARITY FOR WHY THE DPRK HAD TAKEN THE ACTION IT
HAD. BONIVER NOTED SHE HAD RECENTLY MET WITH SEVERAL SOUTH
KOREAN PARLIAMENTARIANS AND WAS SURPRISED TO FIND THEIR
PRIMARY CONCERN WAS THAT THE NORTH'S ACTION MIGHT PROMPT
JAPAN TO DEVELOP NUCLEAR WEAPONS. CHARGE SAID CHINA HAD
SIMILAR CONCERNS. THEY AGREED A MORE SERIOUS CONCERN FOR
CHINA WAS THE PROSPECT OF MILLIONS OF REFUGEES IF WAR BROKE
OUT ON THE KOREAN PENINSULA.

--------------
PROMOTING TRADE AND INVESTMENT IN AFGHANISTAN
--------------

8. (C) WITH U/S BONIVER, CHARGE RAISED REF A REQUEST FOR
INFORMATION ON ASSISTANCE CURRENTLY PROVIDED, OR IDEAS ON
HOW, TO PROMOTE TRADE AND INVESTMENT IN AFGHANISTAN. NEITHER
BONIVER NOR HER CHIEF OF STAFF, ALESSANDOR DI FRANCO (ALSO IN
THE MEETING),SUGGESTED ANY ACTIVE ITALIAN PROGRAMS IN THESE
AREAS. BONIVER SUGGESTED THAT INVESTMENT SHOULD BE FOCUSED
ON LABOR-INTENSIVE IDEAS AND PROGRAMS, EMPHASIZING THE NEED
FOR MORE EMPLOYMENT IN AFGHANISTAN. SHE AGREED WITH CHARGE ON
THE NEED TO ENSURE THAT ASSISTANCE TO AFGHANISTAN BEGAN --
SOON -- TO SHOW RESULTS TO THE AFGHAN PEOPLE, IN ORDER TO
SOLIDIFY SUPPORT FOR THE CENTRAL AFGHAN GOVERNMENT. BONIVER
EXPRESSED SOME FRUSTRATION THAT SO MUCH GOI AID IS ALREADY
COMMITTED THROUGH MULTILATERAL INSTITUTIONS, AND SAID UN AND
OTHER ORGANIZATIONS MUST BE PRESSED TO START SHOWING RESULTS,
TOO.
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PAGE 04 ROME 00244 02 OF 02 211403Z

--------------
PAKISTAN BIGGEST WORRY
--------------

9. (C) CHARGE ASKED BONIVER WHAT WORRIED HER MOST IN HER
LARGE PORTFOLIO. (BONIVER IS RESPONSIBLE FOR EAST,
SOUTHEAST, CENTRAL AND SOUTH ASIA, AS WELL AS IRAN AND GLOBAL
HUMAN RIGHTS ISSUES.) "PAKISTAN," SHE REPLIED WITHOUT
HESITATION. GENERAL MUSHARRAF HAS DONE A "FANTASTIC JOB FOR
A DICTATOR," BONIVER CONTINUED, ADDING THAT SHE HAD A CERTAIN
ADMIRATION FOR HIM. SHE EVALUATED HIS CHANCE OF POLITICAL
SURVIVAL AS GOOD, "UNLESS HE IS ASSASSINATED." BUT HOW LONG,
SHE WONDERED, WOULD THE RISE OF FUNDAMENTALISM BE CONTROLLED?
SHE ALSO EXPRESSED LITTLE HOPE FOR PAKISTAN'S ECONOMIC
FUTURE; THE GOP ECONOMY, SHE ASSERTED, IS A WRECK.
SEMBLER

CONFIDENTIAL

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2003ROME00244 - Classification: CONFIDENTIAL