1. (S) U.N. HUMANITARIAN COORDINATOR IN IRAQ, RAMIRO LOPES
DA SILVA, REPORTS THAT THE FRAGILITY OF THE IRAQI SOCIETY IS
EXTREME AND MILITARY ACTION THAT DISRUPTS THE CURRENT SYSTEMS
WILL CREATE A DISASTROUS SITUATION. THE U.N. IS PLANNING ON
THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE NORTH WILL BE SHIELDED FROM MILITARY
ACTION AND THAT THE SOUTH/CENTRAL REGIONS WILL BEAR THE BRUNT
OF ANY ATTACKS. SOME PROGRESS IS BEING MADE IN U.N.
PREPARATIONS, BUT LACK OF RESOURCES ARE A STUMBLING BLOCK.
IF WE WANT WFP TO ASSIST EARLY ON IN RESURRECTING OR
REJUVENATING THE CURRENT FOOD DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM, SOME
DIALOGUE WITH THE U.N. SECURITY COORDINATION OFFICE
(UNSECOORD) WOULD BE HELPFUL. WFP CONTINUES TO BE CONCERNED
ABOUT POSSIBLE BIOLOGICAL AND/OR CHEMICAL SPILLS AND LEAKS TO
ITS STAFF AND/OR FOOD COMMODITIES. WFP REQUESTS FEEDBACK ON
ASSUMPTIONS MADE BY THE U.N. COUNTRY TEAM IN IRAQ AND ITS
PLANNING. SEE PARA 11. END SUMMARY.



--------------------------


U.N. HUMANITARIAN COORDINATOR IN IRAQ SHARES PLANNING
ASSUMPTIONS


--------------------------





2. (C) SENIOR EMERGENCY COORDINATOR (SEC) R. DAVIS IN THE
U.S. MISSION/ROME MET WITH WFP STAFF ON JANUARY 14 TO DISCUSS
THE IRAQ PLANNING MEETING THAT WAS HELD ON JANUARY 12/13 IN
GENEVA AMONG THE U.N. AGENCIES AND OFFICES, INTERNATIONAL
COMMITTEE OF THE RED CROSS (ICRC), INTERNATIONAL FEDERATION
OF THE RED CRESCENT (IFRC), AND NON-GOVERNEMNTAL ORGANIZATION
(NGO) GROUPS, I.E. ICVA AND INTERACTION. THE U.N.
HUMANITARIAN COORDINATOR IN IRAQ, RAMIRO LOPES DA SILVA, AND
THE U.N. RESIDENT COORDINATORS ALSO ATTENDED.



3. (S) ACCORDING TO WFP, LOPES DA SILVA REPORTED TO THE
GROUP THAT THE FRAGILITY OF THE IRAQI SOCIETY IS EXTREME AND
MILITARY ACTION THAT DISRUPTS THE CURRENT SYSTEMS WILL CREATE
A DISASTROUS SITUATION. THE U.N. IS ASSUMING THAT THE NORTH
WILL BE SHIELDED FROM MILITARY ACTION, HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT ALL FOOD DISTRIBUTED IN THE NORTH FUNNELS THROUGH
THE SOUTH/CENTRAL REGIONS (UNDER THE DIRECTION OF THE GOI'S
MINISTRY OF TRANSPORT) BEFORE IT REACHES THE WAREHOUSES IN
MOSUL OR KIRKUK, WHERE WFP TAKES OVER THE TRUCKING
RESPONSIBILITIES. THEREFORE, LOPES DA SILVA POINTED OUT IT
PROBABLY WOULD BE NECESSARY TO MAKE ALTERNATE LOGISTICAL
ARRANGEMENTS FOR PROVIDING FOOD TO THE NORTH, ALONG WITH
CREATING ALTERNATIVE SUPPLY LINES FROM SYRIA, TURKEY, OR IRAN.



4. (S) LOPES DA SILVA RELAYED THAT THE U.N. IS ASSUMING THAT
THE CENTRAL/SOUTH REGIONS WOULD BE THE POINT OF MAIN MILITARY
ACTION, POSSIBLY CAUSING THE 5.6 MILLION INHABITANTS OF
BAGHDAD TO BE CUT OFF FROM ELECTRICITY, WATER, SEWAGE, AND
FUEL. MINES ARE A POTENTIAL PROBLEM IN MOVEMENTS FROM THE
CENTRAL REGION TO THE NORTH. LOPES DA SILVA ALSO POINTED OUT
THAT ONE MILLION IRAQIS MAY TRY TO MOVE TOWARD IRAN BUT COULD


ACTION PRM-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AF-00 AGRE-00 AID-00 CIAE-00 USNW-00
WHA-00 SRPP-00 EAP-00 EB-00 EUR-00 E-00 FDRE-01
VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 L-00 VCE-00
AC-01 NEA-00 NSAE-00 OES-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 PA-00
PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 SSO-00 SS-00
STR-00 TRSE-00 T-00 USIE-00 SA-00 PMB-00 DRL-02
G-00 SAS-00 /008W

O 171507Z JAN 03
FM AMEMBASSY ROME
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7744
INFO AMEMBASSY AMMAN
AMEMBASSY ANKARA
AMEMBASSY BERLIN
AMEMBASSY BERN
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS
AMEMBASSY CANBERRA
AMEMBASSY KUWAIT
AMEMBASSY LONDON
AMEMBASSY OTTAWA
AMEMBASSY PARIS
AMEMBASSY VIENNA
COMJSOC FT BRAGG NC//J2//
COMJSOC FT BRAGG NC
JOINT STAFF WASHDC
USEU BRUSSELS 3061
USMISSION GENEVA
USMISSION USNATO
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK
USCINCCENT MACDILL AFB FL
USCINCEUR VAIHINGEN GE
WHITE HOUSE NSC WASHDC