SEN. DANFORTH, ITALIAN MFA AGREE ON SUDAN APPROACH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ROME 000163

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/15/2008
TAGS: PREL SU EG KE SU EG KE IT ITPREL
SUBJECT: SEN. DANFORTH, ITALIAN MFA AGREE ON SUDAN APPROACH


CLASSIFIED BY: POLMINCOUNS T. COUNTRYMAN FOR REASON 1.5 (B) AND (D)


1. (C) SUMMARY: IN A JANUARY 11 MEETING AT THE MFA,
SENATOR DANFORTH AND THE MFA DIRECTOR GENERAL FOR AFRICA,
BRUNO CABRAS, SPOKE OF THE HISTORIC OPPORTUNITY THE SUDANESE
NOW HAVE TO MAKE PEACE WITH THE SUPPORT OF THE INTERNATIONAL
COMMUNITY. CABRAS REVEALED THAT THE GOI WOULD PROVIDE AN
ADDITIONAL THREE SPECIALISTS TO HELP IN THE NEGOTIATIONS AND
MONITORING PROCESSES. THE TWO MEN TOUCHED ON ASSUAGING
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EGYPTIAN FEARS, MAINTAINING INTERNATIONAL PRESSURE THROUGH
THE IMPLEMENTATION PHASE, AND SUPPORTING THE GOOD EFFORTS OF
KENYA AND IGAD. THE MEETING CONFIRMED THAT USG AND GOI
THINKING ON SUDAN ARE COMPATIBLE. END SUMMARY.

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MFA: GOI KEENLY INTERESTED IN SUDANESE PEACE
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2. (U) AT THE REQUEST OF SPECIAL ENVOY FOR PEACE IN SUDAN
JOHN DANFORTH, CABRAS AND HE MET AT THE MFA FOR A SATURDAY
EXCHANGE OF VIEWS. ALSO PRESENT AT THE MEETING WERE NSC
AFRICA DIRECTOR MATT MCLEAN, POLMC, POLOFF (NOTETAKER),AND
MFA EAST AFRICA OFFICE DIRECTOR PAOLA IMPERIALE.


3. (C) CABRAS UNDERLINED THE GOI'S INTEREST IN THE PEACE
PROCESS AND REVEALED THAT NEW GOI PERSONNEL WOULD BE SENT TO
ASSIST. THERE WAS "KEEN INTEREST IN THE VATICAN, PRESIDENCY,
AND MFA" IN SUDAN, BOTH FOR HISTORICAL AND MORAL REASONS AND
BECAUSE THERE WERE A LOT OF ITALIAN RELIGIOUS WORKERS IN THE
SOUTH OF SUDAN. "WE KNOW WE HAVE TO DO MORE," CABRAS SAID,
PERHAPS REFLECTING MULTIPLE DEMARCHES POST DELIVERED LAST
YEAR REQUESTING FUNDING AND PERSONNEL FOR THE NUBA MOUNTAINS
CEASE-FIRE MONITORING UNIT. HE PROVIDED A DOCUMENT
COMMITTING A BRIGADIER GENERAL TO MACHAKOS FOR PEACE
NEGOTIATIONS AND A COLONEL AND MAJOR FOR THE NUBA MOUNTAINS
TO SERVE, RESPECTIVELY, AS FIELD COMMANDER AND
LIAISON/OBSERVER. THIS WAS IN ADDITION TO THE GOI DIPLOMATIC
LIAISON OFFICER ALREADY IN PLACE. ASKED WHETHER REPORTS OF
MILITARY ENGAGEMENT ARE INVESTIGATED BY MONITORS, CABRAS SAID
THAT ALL REPORTS OF CEASE-FIRE VIOLATIONS ARE INVESTIGATED,
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BUT THERE HAVE BEEN NO MAJOR VIOLATIONS. ON THE WHOLE, THE
AGREEMENT IS HOLDING.

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KEEPING CAIRO ENGAGED AND THE PROCESS ADVANCING
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4. (C) CABRAS SAID THAT EGYPT WAS "ALMOST TERRORIZED BY
THE PEACE PROCESS, WITH ITS POSSIBILITY OF AN INDEPENDENT
SOUTHERN SUDAN." IT WOULD BE IMPORTANT TO ENSURE THAT EGYPT
DID NOT OPPOSE THE PROCESS. IN RESPONSE TO DANFORTH'S
REQUEST FOR ADVICE FOR HIS MEETINGS IN EGYPT, CABRAS
SUGGESTED HE REITERATE THAT THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY DOES
NOT WANT SOUTHERN SECESSION BUT AT THIS POINT THE SPLM NEEDS
A BACKUP PLAN IN CASE THE AGREEMENT IS NOT IMPLEMENTED. HE
ALSO ADVISED THAT WE KEEP THE NEW ARAB LEAGUE SPECIAL ENVOY
IN THE LOOP TO ASSUAGE EGYPTIAN CONCERNS.


5. (C) IN RESPONSE TO DANFORTH'S STATEMENT THAT HE HAS
TRIED TO BE AS EVEN-HANDED AS POSSIBLE, EVEN THOUGH THE U.S.
VIEW IS THAT THE SOUTH IS THE VICTIM, CABRAS SAID IT WAS
IMPORTANT TO CONVEY PRESIDENT BUSH'S CLEAR MESSAGE THAT THE
SPLM WILL NOT BENEFIT BY GOING SLOWLY. FOR THE TIME BEING,
THE GOI DID NOT VIEW THE CURRENT DELAY IN NEGOTIATIONS AS A
BAD SIGN. HOWEVER, THE GOS WAS "VERY NERVOUS" ABOUT THE
SUDAN PEACE ACT, WHICH IT PERCEIVED AS AIMED AGAINST IT, AND
NEEDED TO BE REASSURED THAT IT APPLIES TO BOTH SIDES.

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SUPPORTING THE GOOD EFFORTS OF KENYA AND IGAD
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6. (C) CABRAS SAID THE GOI WAS THINKING OF PROVIDING
FUNDING FOR STRUCTURAL SUPPORT TO THE INTER-GOVERNMENTAL
AUTHORITY FOR DEVELOPMENT (IGAD) IN ADDITION TO CURRENT
HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE AND PEACE PROCESS AID TO IGAD. HE
PRAISED IGAD'S WORK AS MEDIATOR AND KENYAN GEN. SUMBEIYWO'S
EFFORTS AS KENYA'S SPECIAL REPRESENTATIVE TO THE TALKS. THE
GOI VIEWED THE SUDAN PEACE ACT AS A USEFUL STICK AND WOULD
OFFER THE GOS THE PROMISE OF AN EU AID PACKAGE, TO BE
PROVIDED IMMEDIATELY UPON THE CONCLUSION OF AN ACCORD, AS A
CARROT. THE GOI WOULD ENSURE THAT THE IMF WAS GIVING THE GOS
THE SAME MESSAGE. MCLEAN SUGGESTED THAT AID DISBURSEMENTS BE
TIED TO PROGRESS IN IMPLEMENTATION, AND CABRAS AGREED, THOUGH
HE ADDED THAT TIME WOULD TEND TO CONSOLIDATE THE AGREEMENT IN
PEOPLE'S MINDS. CABRAS NOTED THAT THE CONCLUSION OF THE
AGREEMENT MIGHT WELL BE ON THE GOI WATCH AS EU PRESIDENT
(JULY TO DECEMBER 2003).

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THE GOS WILL BE FUNDAMENTALLY CHANGED BY PEACE
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7. (C) ASKED IF THE GOS WAS UNITED OR DIVIDED ON THE PEACE

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ACTION EUR-00

INFO LOG-00 AF-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 SRPP-00 VC-00 H-01
TEDE-00 INR-00 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 NSCE-00
OMB-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00
SS-00 TRSE-00 T-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DRL-02 G-00
SAS-00 /005W
-------------- 2648EB 160240Z /34
R 151328Z JAN 03
FM AMEMBASSY ROME
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 7691
INFO IGAD COLLECTIVE
WHITE HOUSE WASHDC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 ROME 000163

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/15/2008
TAGS: PREL SU EG KE SU EG KE IT ITPREL
SUBJECT: SEN. DANFORTH, ITALIAN MFA AGREE ON SUDAN APPROACH

PROCESS, CABRAS SAID THAT WHILE THE GOS WAS DIVIDED, ITS
PRESIDENT WAS COMMITTED. HE THEREFORE PREDICTED A
"FUNDAMENTAL CHANGE IN THE POWER STRUCTURE" UPON THE
CONCLUSION OF AN AGREEMENT.


8. (U) SPECIAL ENVOY DANFORTH DID NOT HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY
TO CLEAR THIS CABLE.
SKODON

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2003ROME00163 - Classification: CONFIDENTIAL