MP'S-ELECT SHARE THEIR POLITICAL VIEWS

S E C R E T RANGOON 000860

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/18/2013
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM BM ASSK NLD
SUBJECT: MP'S-ELECT SHARE THEIR POLITICAL VIEWS

Classified By: COM CARMEN M. MARTINEZ FOR REASON 1.5(D).


1. (S) Summary: MPs-elect told us July 18 that they expect
Aung San Suu Kyi to be released fairly soon, that the party
remains strong and its members dedicated and loyal, and that
they hope to avoid any "sporadic" anti-regime action that
could serve as a pretext for an even tougher crackdown on the
pro-democracy movement. If and when the NLD acts, the MPs
continued, it would be on a coordinated, nation-wide basis.
The British Embassy here has heard talk of NLD plans to
declare a parallel government. End Summary.


2. (S) Emboffs, accompanied by a British diplomat, met in
Rangoon July 18 with five Members of Parliament Elect (i.e.,
elected in the junta-annulled 1990 election). Four are
provincial-level NLD leaders and one is a member of the Party
for National Democracy (the party of Aung San Suu Kyi's first
cousin and prime minister of the NCGUB, Dr. Sein Win). Two
of the five were recently released from detention after being
arrested in the post-May 30th crackdown on the NLD. A brief
recap of significant points follows:

-- They do not expect ASSK will be imprisoned for a long
period, as international and domestic pressure is building on
the regime to release her.

-- The local party members remain dedicated and "are willing
to gather and strike if we ask them."

-- The party has yet to take any concerted action, as the
members await direction from its leaders. "We have pledged
ourselves to Aung San Suu Kyi and U Aung Shwe and would not
want to do anything against their wishes."

-- If, however, ASSK and U Aung Shwe are not soon released,
the provincial-level leadership will meet to coordinate
national policy.

-- They say any anti-regime action must be national and
coordinated. They fear that sporadic violence, particularly
in Rangoon or Mandalay, could spark an even harsher military
crackdown on democracy supporters.

-- The SPDC claims ASSK provoked the "clash" of May 30th and
planned some violence in Rangoon in an attempt to spur a
general uprising, they explained. The MPs-elect are
concerned that some student hotheads may play into the SPDC's
hands by undertaking scattered violent acts.

-- Overall, the MPs said they welcomed the events since May
30th, as they might prove to be a catalyst for positive
change. One of those recently released said somewhat
ruefully, "Experience can be a wonderful teacher, but lately
the school fees have been very high."


3. (C) The British diplomat afterwards told us she had heard
from other MPs-elect that some MPs-elect are considering
announcing a parallel government. (We have heard the same,
but only third-hand.) She added that in her recent
discussions with Thailand-based anti-regime youths, it is
apparent that some leaders are pressing for direct action and
now reject any hope of resumed "dialogue." These young
people have taken heart "from the language of the bill your
Congress just passed," she said.


4. (C) COMMENT: We note that the Burmese Freedom and
Democracy Act includes the sentence, "The policy of the
United States, as articulated by the President on April 24,
2003, is to officially recognize the NLD as the legitimate
representative of the Burmese people as determined by the
1990 election." We will seek to provide measured advice to
any MPs-elect who might be considering declaring a parallel
government on the basis of this or other statements. End
Comment.
Martinez