REGIME NAMES CHANGE, GAME REMAINS THE SAME

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 000168

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STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV
CINCPAC FOR FPA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/04/2012
TAGS: PINR PREL BM
SUBJECT: REGIME NAMES CHANGE, GAME REMAINS THE SAME

Classified By: COM CARMEN M. MARTINEZ FOR REASON 1.5(D).


1. (SBU) Summary: The State Peace and Development Council
(SPDC) announced on February 1 the selection of a new
"Secretary 2" and the rotation, including two retirements, of
several regime ministers. The outgoing ministers won't be
missed. The incoming Secretary 2 may eventually establish
himself as a successor to Secretary 1. End Summary.

A New Secretary 2 - Lt. Gen. Soe Win


2. (C) On February 1, the SPDC announced that Lt. General
Soe Win had been assigned as Secretary 2 in the junta. The
Secretary 2 post (the fourth most senior position in the

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junta) had been vacant since February 2001, when Lt. General
Tin Oo was killed in a helicopter accident. Soe Win, who is
approximately 50, worked his way up through various military
commands before being promoted to Brigadier General in 1996
as Commander of the North-West Region. In 1997, he became a
member of the junta during its transition from the State Law
and Order Committee (SLORC) to the SPDC. In November 2001,
he was promoted to Air Defense Commander. He also serves as
one of the Patrons of the Union Solidarity and Development
Association (USDA),a mass organization used as a base of
political support by the SPDC.


3. (C) Lt. General Soe Win is not very well known, and
appears to have made his name through allegiance and dutiful
service rather than exceptional performance. The North-West
Command is SPDC Vice Chairman Maung Aye's home turf and it is
believed that Soe Win is closer to the military side of the
junta (General Maung Aye) than to the intelligence side
(General Khin Nyunt). Ultimately, of course, all are
currently under the firm hand of Senior General Than Shwe.


4. (C) In late January, Soe Win was in the press for the
first time since his promotion in 2001. The Democratic Voice
of Burma reported that he told a USDA meeting in Pyay that
the SPDC would not talk to or hand over power to the NLD.
According to the DVB, he urged the gathered USDA members and
civil servants to not have any contact with the NLD and to
continue in their service to the country.

New Ministers


5. (C) Effective February 2, the SPDC also retired Minister
of Health Major General Ket Sein and Minister of Finance and
Revenue U Khin Maung Thein and transferred Minister of Rail
Transportation U Pan Aung to the Prime Minister's Office.
Major General Aung Min replaced U Pan Aung as Minister of
Rail Transportation. Major General Aung Min is married to
the sister of the newly installed Minister for Economic
Planning and Economic Development, U Soe Tha, who in turn is
reportedly close to Than Shwe. This family connection may
partly explain the change.


6. (C) The new Minister of Health, Dr. Kyaw Myint, is a
physician who has served as a Deputy Minister and a Director
General in the Ministry of Health. He is well regarded by
NGOs and UN officials here and served as Chairman of the WHO
Executive Board in Geneva last year. His main qualification
for the minister's position, however, is that he has served
as personal physician to Senior General Than Shwe and his
family. We have no information available yet on the new
Minister of Finance and Revenue, Major General Hla Tun.


7. (C) The SPDC also announced on February 2 that it was
increasing the number of Deputy Chief Justices from two to
three and the number of Supreme Court Justices from eight to
twelve. According to the GoB, an interest in "smooth and
speedy administration of justice in the interest of the
people..." lay behind the additional appointments. In the
Attorney General's office the number of Deputy Attorneys
General was increased from one to three.

Comment


8. (C) As usual, it is not clear what lies behind all these
changes, but a couple of general points can be made. First,
these promotions and retirements are standard practice as the
SPDC has frequently rotated senior military officers among
the 93 SPDC, minister, or deputy minister positions.
Meanwhile, the NLD and other political parties have largely
maintained the leadership structures that were in place at
the time of the 1990 election. As a result, the generational
contrast between leadership in the SPDC and that in the
opposition parties (most of whom are Ne Win contemporaries)
is becoming increasingly stark.


9. (C) Secondly, the appointment of a new Secretary 2 gives
Secretary 1 Khin Nyunt two potential successors - Major

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General Kyaw Win at military intelligence and Lt. General Soe
Win at the SPDC. If he is now sidelined, the powers he holds
could well be split.


10. (C) As for the ministers, neither the outgoing Minister
of Finance nor the departing Minister of Health is going to
be missed. Both presided over institutions that were
national disgraces. The Ministry of Finance, through its
inability to manage the budget was the prime culprit in the
inflationary surge that has threatened to overwhelm Burma's
economy over the past two years, while the Ministry of
Health's management of the health system earned Burma the
booby prize in the WHO's ranking of national health systems
in 1999. The new appointees may do no better but the
incumbents were proved failures.


11. (C) Finally, the additional justices, deputy justices
and deputy attorneys general may reflect some incipient
interest in law reform and the use of legal processes in
Burma. This does not mean, of course, that the regime will
not always get its way, but it does mean they may become a
little more adept in moving the case load now burdening the
courts, and in finding the appropriate legal pretext for its
moves. End Comment.
Martinez