WIN AUNG IN INDIA AND OTHER RECENT GOB TOURS OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 000167

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV
CDR USPACOM FOR FPA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/04/2013
TAGS: PREL BG IN BM
SUBJECT: WIN AUNG IN INDIA AND OTHER RECENT GOB TOURS OF
THE NEIGHBORHOOD

REF: A. (A) RANGOON 116

B. (B) BEIJING 1078

C. (C) 02 DHAKA 3704

Classified By: COM Carmen Martinez. Reason: 1.5 (d).


1. (C) Summary: The SPDC's recent trips to India, China, and
Bangladesh, together with its exchanges with Thailand, are
intended to shore up regional support for Burma in
anticipation of a possible deterioration in Burma's relations
with the West. According to the Director of MFA's Southwest
and Southwest Asia Division, recent visits to India and
Bangladesh, in particular, focused on infrastructure links,
and trade and investment. Reportedly, Burmese Foreign
Minister Win Aung came back from India with a $25 million
soft loan, among other promises. End Summary.

India


2. (C) U Ye Myint, the Director of South and Southwest Asia
Affairs in Burma's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, told poloff
on February 4 that Foreign Minister Win Aung's January 19 -
23 trip to India was not intended to reassure India regarding
Burma's ties with China. While Win Aung's trip immediately
followed SPDC Chairman Than Shwe's trip to China, it was part
of an effort to shore up Burma's regional relations in
anticipation of a deterioration in relations with the West.
Right now, no regional states support Western sanctions on
Burma and the SPDC, with its flurry of recent visits, wanted
to make sure that there was no change in the position of
front-line states. Than Shwe visited Bangladesh and China,
Win Aung visited India, and Thailand's Prime Minister was
shortly expected in Rangoon. In each case, the focus of the
visit had been, or would be, economic cooperation.


3. (C) In India, Win Aung visited New Delhi, Banglaore and
Calcutta. In New Delhi, he met with the Vice President,
Prime Minister Atal Bihari Bajpayee, Finance Minister (and
former Foreign Minister) Jaswant Singh, and the new Foreign
Minister Yaswant Sinha; in Bangalore, he met Hyderabad's
Chief Minister and, in Calcutta, had meetings with the Indian
and Burmese business communities. Reportedly, the
discussions produced a $25 million "soft" loan from India and
an invitation to India's Vice President to reciprocate
General Maung Aye's year 2000 visit to India. They also
reviewed progress on a number of infrastructure projects,
including the trans-Burma highway, which is to run from Tamu
on the Indian border to Myawaddy on the Thai border; the
Kaladan Road and River network which is to lead down from
Mizoram to Sittwe; and the proposed Tamanthi Hydropower plant
on the Chindwin River. According to U Ye Myint, all three
projects are still in the study stage. A technical team from
India is due later this month to decide on the "alignment"
(i.e., route) for the trans-Burma highway; a second team is
completing studies on the Kaladan River and on enlargement of
the port at Sittwe (to allow it to take vessels of up to
6,000 tons); while a third is gathering data for the proposed
1,000 megawatt plant at Tamanthi. Hyderabad's Chief Minister
also promised cooperation on IT development, while a private
Indian business group (not further identified) floated the
idea of a joint venture investment in a zinc and tin mine in
Burma.


4. (C) Win Aung also reviewed the bidding on other issues,
including border control, India's interest in ASEAN, and the
development of BIMSTEC. In regard to border control, Win
Aung reiterated Burma's interest in cooperation with India in
controlling insurgents, but ruled out joint patrols.
According to U Ye Myint, this refusal of joint patrols was a
long held position which was intended to avoid any
concessions on sovereignty that other neighbors might
exploit. Over time, he said, India had come to understand
and accept that position. On ASEAN, U Ye Myint said, Burma
promised to support India's interest in closer cooperation
and closer ties. It also reiterated its intent to play an
"active role" in BIMSTEC

Bangladesh


5. (C) Than Shwe's December visit to Bangladesh went equally
well. According to U Ye Myint, Bangladesh recently adopted
its own "Look Eastward" policy. Just as India re-assessed it
relations with Burma when it saw Chinese/Burmese cooperation
on the rise, so Bangladesh has done the same as it has
watched Burmese/Indian relations improve. During the recent
visit, he said, the BDG said almost nothing about the
problems of the Rohingya Muslims and refugee repatriation.
The focus was almost entirely on trade, investment, and
infrastructure links. The BDG was interested in a road link
from Dhaka through Burma and eventually onward to Thailand,
shipping links between Chittagong, Rangoon and other coastal
ports, improved border trade arrangments, and a new trade
settlement arrangement that would facilitate bilateral trade.
The GOB had no intrinsic objections to any of the proposals,
U Ye Myint said, but had not yet responded formally to any.

Comment


6. (C) U Ye Myint's explanation of the SPDC's recent travels
rings true. The GOB appreciates the support it has received
from neighboring states in bringing to a close many of its
long running insurgencies, and in dealing with other common
problems, like narcotics. It also values the cushion that
regional states have provided against the impact of Western
sanctions. We also note a report in the anti-regime
Democratic Voice of Burma of January 28 attributed to the
SPDC's Lt. Gen. Soe Win, in which the general "guaranteed
that there would be no military intervention against Burma by
the American government...as Burma is friendly with China,
this kind of scenario could be protected against." If the
DVB quote is accurate, it suggests that the GOB now believes
that it can rely on regional support not only in dealing with
common problems (like refugees, narcotics, and regional
development),but also the West. Some foreign observers
still characterize Burma's military regime as xenophobic, but
the SPDC found out long ago that its interests are better
served by engagement, at least with near neighbors, than by
any effort to keep the world at a distance. That, in fact,
was one of the major changes that took place when the current
crew of generals replaced Ne Win back in 1988. End Comment.
Martinez