BURMA'S INDEPENDENCE DAY; THE NLD CALLS FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 000016

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV
USCINCPAC FOR FPA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/05/2013
TAGS: PGOV PREL BM NLD
SUBJECT: BURMA'S INDEPENDENCE DAY; THE NLD CALLS FOR
DIALOGUE; THE GOB FOR DISCIPLINE

REF: 02 RANGOON 1663

Classified By: COM Carmen M. Martinez. Reason: 1.5 (d).


1. (C) Summary: Burma's January 4 Independence Day
celebrations produced no new gestures of reconciliation and
perhaps a slight hardening of positions on both sides. The
National League for Democracy called for an end to political
oppression, the release of all political prisoners, and the
initiation of a "real" political dialogue on constitutional
issues. It also indicated that there was no room for any
reciprocal, confidence-building gestures from the NLD until a
real political dialogue was started. The government rejected
international criticism of the harassment to which Aung San
Suu Kyi had been subjected in Rakhine State and called on all
parties to "play by the prevailing rules and regulations."
It also focused its Independence Day speeches almost
exclusively on history and the economy, saying nothing at all
about political transition. End Summary.

NLD Celebration


2. (U) The NLD celebration took place as usual before a crowd
of about 500, including ethnic representatives (mostly
members of the Committee to Represent the People's
Parliament),diplomats from most Western embassies and Japan,
and representatives of the UN agencies. The highlight was
the presentation of a new party resolution which reaffirmed
the party's willingness to work cooperatively with the
military on political transition, but which also condemned
the continuing political oppression in Burma and called for
the start of a "real dialogue" on constitutional issues.
Until that dialogue started, the resolution said, the party
would stand by its current positions. It would demand that
the results of the 1990 election be implemented and would
refuse to attend the National Convention convened by the SPDC
to draft a new constitution. It would also continue to hold
to its current position on aid: aid should be granted to
Burma only for humanitarian purposes and then only under
conditions that would ensure that it was "transparent,
accountable, and independently monitored." In her oral
remarks, ASSK added a call for selfless dedication to the
party. If the party was rent by the pursuit of individual
ambition, it would inevitably dissolve.

The GOB Celebrations


3. (U) The GOB itself had nothing to say about democracy or
political transition in any of its official Independence Day
messages. Delivered before the usual crowds of thousands,
those speeches focused almost exclusively on history and the
economy, and the current need for austerity. There was not a
word about democracy or political transition. Moreover, in a
statement released that same day, the GOB rejected
international criticism of the harassment the NLD encountered
in Rakhine State (reftel) and called on all political parties
"to play by the rules and regulations of the political game."
The local authorities in Rakhine State, the GOB said, were
only applying the law and, in particular, the current ban on
all outdoor political rallies.

Other Groups


4. (U) Two other groups also chimed in with political
statements. U Tha Gyaw, the Chairman of the National Unity
Party, which is basically the reincarnation of Ne Win's old
Burma Socialist Program Party, called for a multiparty
democracy. Similarly, at an event attended by ASSK and other
NLD leaders, the Veteran Politicians Group (basically General
Aung San and Ne Win's contemporaries) called for the SPDC and
the NLD to start "a meaningful political dialogue at the
earliest possible moment."

Comment


5. (C) Independence Day may not have produced any progress on
political transition, but it at least produced some clarity
regarding both sides' positions. ASSK has been saying for
some time that the period of confidence-building is over.
From the party's Independence Day resolution, it is now clear
what she means by that: until a "real dialogue" has begun,
there is no room for reciprocal gestures by the NLD (e.g.
calling for additional aid or any easing of sanctions).
Evidently, the NLD has come to the decision that it has few
cards to play and cannot play any of those cards prematurely.
Once there is a real prospect for change; i.e., some real
dialogue with the government, then the NLD can call for some
relaxation of the current pressure. Until that point is
reached, however, the party (or at least ASSK) now apparently
believes that the best counsel is simply to hold firm.


6. (C) The GOB meanwhile has laid down some markers of its
own, cautioning the NLD not to abuse the political freedoms
it's been given. The "evolving political transition in
Myanmar will continue unabated, provided that political
parties also play by the prevailing rules and regulations of
the political game." The hint is that the government will
react firmly to any efforts to provoke unrest or
confrontation.

7. (C) Finally, the positions of the NUP and the veteran
politicians are both interesting. The NUP has always been
one of the props of the regime. That it is now choosing to
come down publicly in favor of multiparty democracy is a
strong indication of the direction in which it sees the
political winds blowing. Similarly, the Veteran Politicians
Group has long called for dialogue. This is the first time,
however, that it has issued that call in company with the NLD
and Aung San Suu Kyi. End Comment.
Martinez