WAITING FOR GODOT: NLD LEADERS IN A HOLDING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 001562

SIPDIS

STATE ALSO FOR EAP/BCLTV;
USPACOM FOR FPA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/02/2013
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM BM NLD
SUBJECT: WAITING FOR GODOT: NLD LEADERS IN A HOLDING
PATTERN?

REF: RANGOON 1534 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: COM Carmen Martinez for Reasons 1.5 (B,D)


1. (C) Summary: Recently released senior leaders of the NLD
indicate they will remain politically active and press ahead
with the challenge of reviving the democracy movement and
protecting the survival of their political party. However,
the "Uncles" admit that they find it difficult to form a
political strategy in the absence of their detained CEC
colleagues, including ASSK. In the interim, they welcome
external pressure and encourage more of the same. End
Summary.

The Uncles Re-Emerge
--------------


2. (C) On December 2, COM and Emboffs called on the recently
released members of the National League for Democracy (NLD)
Central Executive Committee (CEC). The Burmese regime lifted
house arrest restrictions on U Nyunt Wei, U Than Tun, U Hla
Pe, U Soe Myint, and U Lun Tin on November 23 and 24 and the
five leaders have been meeting regularly at U Than Tun's
modest Rangoon residence. Although the NLD "Uncles" did not
suffer any serious health problems while under house arrest,
the leaders, who average 80 years of age, are clearly coping
with the aches and pains of aging.


3. (C) The Uncles, who have only met with British and
Americans among the diplomatic corps (reftel),described
themselves as actively picking up NLD party activities where
they left off before house arrest in early June. They
convene every work day of the week and within recent days met
with several NLD division leaders to discuss regional party
activities. The NLD leaders said that they have been meeting
freely without military intelligence interference, although
they have experienced periodic phone outages and do not have
authorization to reopen party offices (note: a bevy of MI
agents conducted surveillance of our meeting with the Uncles.
End note).

No Political Games
--------------


4. (C) U Nyunt Wei described the current environment as "an
exciting, important period of change," but acknowledged that
the Uncles were operating "somewhat in the dark" without the
remaining four members of the CEC, including ASSK. They
Uncles said they do not know if or when their colleagues will
be released, but they plan to initiate communications with
ASSK. "However," U Nyunt Wei insisted, "we will not march
down University Avenue to knock on her door so that Radio
Free Asia can report the regime turned us away." He
explained that the Uncles will not play political games with
the SPDC, but will go about their business quietly, including
opening a back channel to communicate with ASSK and other CEC
members.


5. (C) U Nyunt Wei reiterated an NLD position that the party
would refuse to participate in the SPDC's reconvened National
Convention (reftel). "We walked out in 1995 for good
reason," he said, "and our concerns still remain valid." The
SPDC's road map, said the Uncles, will not succeed. U Hla Pe
said that for the past 15 years the SPDC had harassed and
intimidated the NLD, but now "we face the worst situation
possible" in which the regime can indiscriminately "do what
they want," detaining NLD members and supporters without any
warning or indication of their intent. "The Depeyin attack
was our darkest moment," he said, "and now the regime has
physically split the party leadership in half."

Keep Up the Pressure
--------------


6. (C) The NLD Uncles expressed full support for U.S.
sanctions and international pressure, observing that these
actions had secured their release. They urged continued
pressure, "as a means to support the NLD's policy of change
through non-violence" and to help revive the NLD party's
ability to operate. Each of the Uncles expressed their
desire to see the United Nations remain engaged in the
political process and said they hoped the U.N. Security
Council would address the situation in Burma. The CEC
members were pleased to learn from us that the UNGA Third
Committee had adopted a tough resolution on Burma, including
a call for a full and independent investigation of the May 30
assault, but they observed that the SPDC is "not the first
government to ignore U.N. resolutions."


7. (C) COM expressed strong support for the CEC leaders and
briefed the Uncles on policy developments since their
detention in June. She noted that new U.S. sanctions had
received overwhelming support from Congress and that the
Administration remained focused on keeping up the pressure.
She also told the Uncles that recent video footage of the NLD
convoy, broadcast on November 28 by the BBC, had demonstrated
to the world the phenomenal support that the democracy
movement enjoys from the Burmese people. COM also urged the
Uncles to be realistic about expectations of UNSC action,
given other, ongoing crises and opposition from some UNSC
members. U Than Tun replied to the latter point by asking
"How can we neutralize the Chinese?" We suggested as a
starting point that the CEC members seek out a meeting with
the Chinese Ambassador to exchange views.


8. (C) We queried the elderly CEC members about plans for the
future of the NLD party and how they intend to develop
leaders from younger generations. "We don't need them,"
replied U Nyunt Wei, explaining that young NLD members want
democracy, but were raised under Burmese socialism and "know
nothing about life and liberty." The NLD leaders explained
that the party and the CEC were formed in the midst of the
1988 democracy demonstrations on a "consensus" basis and that
the NLD's core leadership would continue to guide the party
for the foreseeable future.

Comment: Change from Within or Without?
--------------


9. (C) The released NLD CEC members are determined to remain
politically active and to press ahead with reviving the
democracy movement. However, their immediate focus is on
logistics, such as freeing ASSK and their other CEC
colleagues and seeking to reopen party offices. Without
ASSK's direct leadership, however, the Uncles do not intend
to implement any new party initiatives or develop a strategy
to deal with an imminent National Convention and other SPDC
actions. The NLD Uncles see their hands as tied by ASSK's
continued detention and may be hoping the answer to the
political crisis lies in additional international pressure.
"We don't want more sanctions, we want you to invade," said U
Nyunt Wei as we departed. Though his smile indicated he may
have been joking, like many Burmese, the CEC members may have
diminishing hopes that internal efforts can ultimately thwart
authoritarian rule. End comment.
Martinez