NLD DEMONSTRATIONS FAIL TO MATERIALIZE

C O N F I D E N T I A L RANGOON 001488

SIPDIS

STATE ALSO FOR EAP/BCLTV;
USPACOM FOR FPA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/18/2013
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL BM NLD
SUBJECT: NLD DEMONSTRATIONS FAIL TO MATERIALIZE


Classified By: DCM Ron McMullen for Reasons 1.5 (B,D)


1. (C) Summary: Burma's 83rd National Day anniversary,
commemorating a 1920 student strike that accelerated the
independence movement, passed quietly on November 18 with the
SPDC and the NLD and other pro-democracy groups holding
separate, low-key ceremonies. Broader NLD demonstrations
failed to materialize, despite prodding from exile groups,
and the regime's intelligence apparatus kept a close watch on
all pro-democracy activities. The SPDC released 58 prisoners
on the eve of the holiday on "humanitarian" grounds, although
none of the elderly men and pregnant women released were
considered political prisoners. End Summary.


2. (U) On November 18 Burma observed National Day, a holiday
that commemorates a 1920 student-led strike that protested
the British colonial government's ham-fisted control of
university-level education. The strike empowered the Young
Mens Buddhist Association (YMBA) and other nascent political
groups, thereby galvanizing the independence movement.
Although this year is the 83rd anniversary of the strike,
National Day was not adopted until after independence in 1948.


3. (SBU) On the morning of National Day this year, a small
group of NLD members gathered at the Kyak-htat-gyi ("Six
Levels") Pagoda near the party's shuttered headquarters in
downtown Rangoon and offered meals to local monks. Later in
the day, a group of about 100 NLD youths proceeded to the
Shwedagon Pagoda, Burma's most revered Buddhist shrine, and
paid respects at a small monument dedicated to student
leaders of the 1920 strike. SPDC military intelligence
maintained a heavy presence throughout the day at the
Shwedagon Pagoda and videotaped the NLD youths. There were
no reports of arrests.


4. (SBU) Also on National Day, the Veteran Politicians, a
pro-democracy group of elderly activists and former GOB
officials, held a commemorative event for about 400 guests.
The Veterans called for the release of all political
prisoners and a tripartite dialogue involving the nation's
three largest forces (the SPDC, the NLD, and the ethnics) as
"the only way to peace and national reconciliation." NLD
members who attended the event issued a statement requesting
the reopening of NLD offices and the unconditional release of
the party's leaders, exhorting the regime to "avoid
procrastinating and leading the country into further depths
of poverty."


5. (C) The exiled National Council of the Union of Burma
(NCUB),in a November 17 notice, had described NLD plans for
a "major event" on National Day, including nationwide
protests. However, other than religious ceremonies at local
pagodas, no such protests materialized.


6. (U) On the eve of National Day, the GOB issued a statement
announcing that it had commuted the sentences and released 58
prisoners, "taking into consideration humanitarian reasons."
According to the GOB statement, 49 of the released prisoners
were females either pregnant or with young children and the
remaining nine were over the age of 65 years. None the of
the released prisoners were considered by the GOB or the NLD
to be political detainees.


7. (C) Comment: The GOB's statement also noted that the
Government "will continue to release those that will cause no
harm to the community nor threaten the existing peace,
stability and the unity of the nation." Observers in Rangoon
interpret this as a message that the SPDC will only release
political prisoners who confess to their transgressions and
agree to refrain from future political activities.
Martinez