BURMA: ROAD(MAP) RALLIES

C O N F I D E N T I A L RANGOON 001207

SIPDIS

TREASURY FOR OASIA JEFF NEIL
USPACOM FOR FPA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/24/2013
TAGS: PGOV PREL BM
SUBJECT: BURMA: ROAD(MAP) RALLIES

REF: A. RANGOON 1093

B. RANGOON 1057

Classified By: COM Carmen Martinez for Reasons 1.5 (B,D)


1. (C) SUMMARY: The Union Solidarity and Development
Association (USDA),a mass membership organization sponsored
by the ruling SPDC, staged massive rallies on September 20 in
Rangoon and Mandalay as a show of support for Prime Minister
General Khin Nyunt's "Road Map to Democracy." The junta will
repeat these rigid, tightly controlled mass rallies in the
remaining division and state capitals over the next three
weeks. On September 22, SPDC Chairman Senior General Than
Shwe appointed thirteen new members to the National
Convention Convening Commission, a group that is dominated by
senior military officers, like the Commission's executive
leadership selected several weeks ago (ref a). The rallies
and appointments are further signs that the SPDC is moving
toward convening the National Convention without the
participation of the democratic opposition. END SUMMARY.


2. (U) On September 20, the USDA held massive political
rallies in Rangoon and Mandalay to drum up support for the
SPDC's seven-step "Road Map to Democracy" (ref b). According
to GOB and independent sources, over 15,000 USDA partisans
and members of government organizations packed an indoor
arena in downtown Rangoon, and nearly 20,000 participated in
a similar event held at an outdoor sports stadium in
Mandalay. USDA members from a cross section of Burma's civil
service, blue collar, and artisan classes attended, all
carefully segregated by professional occupation and dressed
in USDA-mandated uniforms for each of their columns.


3. (SBU) The regime's official newspaper, the New Light of
Myanmar, has given four straight days of front page coverage
to the rallies, including photos of thousands of youths lined
up in neat civilian uniforms. The images of uniformed and
thoroughly bored USDA partisans eerily bring to mind rallies
of yesteryear totalitarian regimes. Pictures of the rallies
also appeared on the SPDC's website (www.myanmar.com),
including images of USDA brass leading slogans with raised,
clenched fists.


4. (U) On September 23, SPDC Chairman Senior General Than
Shwe appointed thirteen new members to the National
Convention Convening Commission, the body responsible for
oversight of a National Convention and the drafting of a new
constitution. Six of the new members are senior military
officers, including Brigadier General Than Tun, who serves as
the regime's liaison with Aung San Suu Kyi.


5. (C) COMMENT: This is the first time the SPDC's
mouthpiece, "The New Light of Myanmar," has given extensive
coverage to USDA activities since the May 30 Depeyin attack
on ASSK and NLD supporters. USDA members played a key role
in planning and carrying out that attack. Holding such large
rallies now, coupled with SPDC promotions of local officials
associated with the attack, are strong indications that the
junta feels very secure in its control over the democratic
opposition. As for next steps, we have no clear indication
on a timeline for reconvening the National Convention.
However, given heavy military control of the Convening
Commission and the prominent role the SPDC has carved out for
itself in any potential transition, local Burmese joke that
the "Myanmar Road Map" is really nothing more than a "MI
(Military Intelligence) Road Map." END COMMENT.
Martinez