BURMESE GENERAL KHIN NYUNT AS PRIME MINISTER:

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 001029

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV
COMMERCE FOR ITA JEAN KELLY
TREASURY FOR OASIA JEFF NEIL
USPACOM FOR FPA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/25/2013
TAGS: PGOV BM
SUBJECT: BURMESE GENERAL KHIN NYUNT AS PRIME MINISTER:
PROMOTION OR DEMOTION?

Classified By: COM Carmen Martinez for Reasons 1.5 (B,D)


1. (C) SUMMARY: SPDC Chairman Senior General Than Shwe's
unexpected August 25 realignment of Burma's military and
government hierarchy may undercut SPDC Secretary-1 General
Khin Nyunt, the regime's number three leader. Khin Nyunt's
new assignment as Prime Minister is expected to be largely
ceremonial and his continued control of the powerful military
intelligence portfolio may be temporary. Chairman Than Shwe
also ousted five cabinet members regarded as Khin Nyunt
supporters, and replaced them with his own proteges, four
generals and a retired colonel. The new changes are
consistent with Than Shwe's consolidation of power that began
with the marginalization, and subsequent death last year, of
former strongman Ne Win. We do not expect at this point that
the new alignment will lead the regime to change its tune on
the NLD or alter its defiance of the international community.
END SUMMARY.

CH-CH-CH-CHANGES
--------------


2. (C) In the GOB's normal evening radio news broadcast on
August 25, the SPDC announced that Chairman Than Shwe had
appointed General Khin Nyunt, formerly the regime's number
three man, as Prime Minister. Than Shwe, who previously held
the Prime Minister job himself, also promoted the regime's
number four man, Lt General Soe Win, to replace Khin Nyunt,
and Lt General Thein Sein (a former regional commander) to
move up to SPDC Secretary-2.


3. (C) Khin Nyunt's replacement as S-1, Soe Win, is the
reputed planner and executioner of the May 30 "Black Friday"
ambush of NLD leader Aung San Suu Kyi, and a Than Shwe
loyalist who was earlier this year promoted to Lt General and
elevated to the S-2 position. The same broadcast also
announced the retirement of five marginal GOB ministers, all
of whom were regarded as Khin Nyunt supporters. Among those
ousted was General David Abel, the only non-Buddhist member
of the cabinet and the regime's former economic guru, held in
high regard by Burma's business and diplomatic communities.

WHO'S IN, WHO,S OUT
--------------


4. (C) Embassy sources agree that the Prime Minister
appointment "bumps" Khin Nyunt up and out of the way,
depending if he retains control of military intelligence and
his seat on the SPDC. Significantly, none of the newly
appointed ministers are known to be Khin Nyunt supporters.
The new Secretary-1, Lt General Soe Win, is considered a
faithful "yes man" to Than Shwe. He is widely assumed to be
the mastermind and the on-scene commander of the SPDC's
violent ambush on ASSK and her NLD convoy in Depeyin on May

30. Than Shwe only recently elevated Soe Win within the SPDC
to the long-vacant post of Secretary-2, then shortly after
promoted him to Lieutenant General. New to the top hierarchy
is Lt General Thein Sein as SPDC Secretary-2, who vaulted
over several other generals for the regime's number four
position.

NEWLY APPOINTED
--------------


5. (C) The new SPDC and cabinet changes, according to the
official GOB announcement (brief bio notes in parentheses):

General Khin Nyunt, Prime Minister (former SPDC Secretary-1
and currently holds the military intelligence portfolio as
Chief of OCMI).

Lt General Soe Win, SPDC Secretary-1 (former SPDC S-2, USDA
Central Executive Committee member, mastermind of May 30
attack).

Lt General Thein Sein, SPDC Secretary-2 (former Adjutant
General, USDA Rangoon Division Chair, Myanmar War Veterans
Organization Chairman, responsible for organizing new
"People's Militias").

U Ko Lay, Minister at the Prime Minister's Office (former
Rangoon Mayor, USDA leader, retired colonel).

Major General Thein Swe, Minister at the Prime Minister's
Office (former OCMI Department head, Air Force Officer, son
runs Myanmar Times).

Brigadier General Thura Myint Maung, Minister for Religious
Affairs (former Deputy Minister for Home Affairs, is a USDA
leader).

Brigadier General Thein Aung, Minister for Forestry (former
Deputy Minister for Energy, USDA leader).

Major General Htay Oo, Minister for Cooperatives (former
regional commanding officer).

Retired:

Lt General Min Thein, Minister at the SPDC Chairman's Office
Brigadier General Abel, Minister at the SPDC Chairman's Office
U Pan Aung, Minister at the Prime Minister's Office (retired
military officer)
Lt General Tin Ngwe, Minister for Cooperatives
U Aung Khin, Minister for Religious Affairs (retired military
officer)


COMMENT: IS KHIN NYUNT OUT?
--------------


6. (C) The changes appear to be a continuation of Than
Shwe,s 10-year effort to consolidate power. In 2002, Than
Swe ordered the arrest of family members of former strongman
Ne Win for alleged coup plotting, signaling the demise of Ne
Win's quiet, but firm, influence on the SPDC. Ne Win died
with little fanfare last year, apparently creating an opening
for Than Shwe, should he so choose, to further marginalize
Khin Nyunt, a former Ne Win favorite.


7. (C) One wild card in this realignment, however, is
whether Prime Minister Khin Nyunt will keep his position as
the Chief of OCMI, the Gestapo-fashioned military
intelligence apparatus that keeps all of Burma's government,
military, and society in check. With the intelligence
portfolio, he has teeth. Without it, he'll be nothing more
than a figurehead. End comment.
Martinez