IRAQ/UN: CANADIAN REACTION TO FEBRUARY 14

C O N F I D E N T I A L OTTAWA 000448

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/14/2013
TAGS: PREL PARM MOPS IZ CA UN
SUBJECT: IRAQ/UN: CANADIAN REACTION TO FEBRUARY 14
INSPECTORS' REPORT

Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Brian Flora,
Reasons 15. (b) and (d).


1. (SBU) Canadian Foreign Minister Bill Graham, speaking to
the press after the February 14 weapons inspectors' report to
the UN Security Council, said that the report shows progress
as well as the need for continued pressure on Iraq. Graham
said that while no-one is excluding the use of force, that is
the last resort, and there is still a chance war can be
avoided. Echoing Prime Minister Chretien's February 13
speech to the Chicago Council on Foreign Relations, Graham
emphasized the importance of staying faithful to the UN
process and Resolution 1441. He argued that no country,
including the United States, intended to move immediately
against Iraq. When pressed on whether Canada would
participate in a military campagin against Iraq that did not
have UN blessing, Graham refused to speculate.


2. (SBU) Early reaction in the Canadian media was that the
inspectors' report supports the French argument for continued
inspections. Commentators noted that Blix and El-Baradei
felt there was still useful work to be done, and that they
are still building their capacity.


3. (C) COMMENT: While the GoC continues to keep its options
open, the inspectors' report does not help our case here in
the court of public opinion. Chretien's Liberal Party is
split over Iraq, with four backbench MPs voting for a
February 11 opposition resolution requiring explicit UNSC
endorsement for action if Canadian were to participate. So
long as the inspectors say they are making progress and the
Security Council is not ready to abandon that process, the
GoC will find it hard to disagree.


4. (C) COMMENT CONT'D: Graham did tell the press that time is
"very limited" for Iraq, but the GoC would clearly prefer
some accommodation between the U.S. and France in the
Security Council. In that vein, we note that Graham also
mentioned he would be discussing Iraq later on February 14
with the Mexican Foreign Minister. As for the NATO dispute
over support to Turkey, Foreign Affairs contacts tell us that
Graham and Political Director Jim Wright took the French
Ambassador to task this week over France's continued
obstruction.
KELLY