CANADIAN FOREIGN MINISTER CALLS SECRETARY POWELL'S

C O N F I D E N T I A L OTTAWA 000367

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/06/2013
TAGS: PREL PARM IZ CA UNSC
SUBJECT: CANADIAN FOREIGN MINISTER CALLS SECRETARY POWELL'S
IRAQ PRESENTATION "DISTURBING AND PERSUASIVE"

Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Stephen Kelly,
Reasons 1.5 (b) and (d).


1. (SBU) Foreign Minister Bill Graham told the Canadian press
that Secretary Powell's February 5 presentation on Iraq
"amounts to a transfer of the burden of proof from the United
States to Saddam Hussein." Graham went on to say that "we
are not at a point where there is a need to use force.
However, we don't have much time left. If Dr. Blix comes
back and says that there is no chance that Saddam Hussein is
going to cooperate with us, the call for more time, I don't
think, will be very convincing." The Secretary's speech also
drew favorable comment in the Canadian press, with most
commentators saying that the presentation made clear that
Iraq was concealing weapons of mass destruction from the
inspectors.


2. (SBU) While Prime Minister Chretien spent the day striking
a health care deal with provincial leaders, Graham fielded
opposition questions in the House of Commons after the
Secretary's speech to the UNSC. While the official

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opposition Canadian Alliance Party criticized the government
for not lining up more strongly with the U.S. and the UK,
other opposition parties (Bloc Quebecois, New Democratic
Party) called for Canada to oppose any military action
against Iraq not specifically endorsed by a new UNSC
resolution.


3. (C) All opposition parties, including the Progressive
Conservatives, called for a Commons debate and vote on
Canada's position toward conflict with Iraq. Ron Hoffman,
Foreign Affairs' Director for Defense and Security Relations,
told us that there is no obligation or tradition in Canada
for the Government to allow such a vote, and that the ruling
Liberal Party caucus is too divided on this issue to risk it
in any case. Hoffman said that the Secretary's presentation
will help the GoC make its case with the Canadian public,
which is just as divided as Parliament.


4. (C) COMMENT: The Secretary's speech did not change the
minds of our critics on the Canadian political left, but it
has helped us where it matters most, within Cabinet. The
evidence that Iraq is concealing WMD from the inspectors will
help the GoC make the case that Iraq is in breach of UNSCR
1441, and that there is justification for "serious
consequences" even if a second resolution is not obtained.
Graham continues to emphasize the UN process, but he has
distanced himself from the French and German position on
inspections for inspections' sake. The GoC will not make any
dramatic moves prior to the inspectors' February 14 report,
but it realizes that time is quickly running out and is
positioning itself domestically to support action against
Iraq.
KELLY